The retirement rate from races has been steadily decreasing for some time – so what’s causing it?
Are the cars getting more reliable? Are the drivers crashing less? Let’s see what the stats have to say…
Are the cars getting more reliable?
In a word: yes. This is a large part of why more drivers are finishing races. Only one driver suffered a race-ending mechanical failure today.
That was Mark Webber, a driver who seems cursed with peculiar mechanical misfortune – he suffered more race-ending car failures than any other driver last year, and is on course to claim the same dubious honour this year.
So far in 2007, 12.88% of all starts have ended in retirement due to car failure. That figure was 18.18% last year. Go back to 1997 and it was 24.6% – a quarter of the grid could expect their car to give up before the race was over. Today it’s closer to one in eight.
Here’s a graph that shows how the car failure rate held at around 25% or so in the late ’90s before falling through the 2000s:
What’s caused the reliability of the cars to improve?
The simple process of year-on-year improvement, growing budgets and increased professionalism are a large part of the explanation.
But also the value of having a supremely reliable car was well demonstrated by Ferrari in their massively successful campaigns of 2001-2004. It forced other teams to copy their approach – which Renault have done with notable success. Even though the team has slipped down the grid this year, their cars remain among the most reliable.
The revised points system introduced in 2003 also incentivised better reliability. The points accumulate more quickly if you’re picking them up in bundles of eight and six for second and third places with a reliable car, than taking sporadic wins with a fast but fragile machine, as Kimi Raikkonen and McLaren learned the hard way in 2005.
The 1961 Dutch Grand Prix was the first event at which no cars retired. That feat was matched twice in 2005 – once at the farcical United States Grand Prix where only six cars started – but also at the Italian Grand Prix at flat-out Monza where engines are under enormous stress.
This brings us to the final reason why cars are more reliable: the rules. Teams are now penalised ten grid places for every engine change they make, forcing them to concentrate on better reliability. The rev limiters introduced this year may be unpopular because they make overtaking more difficult, but along with the design freeze they have further improved reliability.
Are the drivers crashing less?
The other major cause of drivers failing to finish races is themselves, when they have crashes and spins. Are drivers of today crashing less than they used to?
Let’s take a look at the same graph again, but with the average race finishing rate and driver DNFs also plotted.
The rate of driver DNFs has decreased very slightly over the past decade. A possible reason for this could be that many circuit have moved barriers back and replaced gravel traps with tarmac run-off areas, meaning that drivers are less likely to retire if they have a spin.
Just how low can the retirement rate get?
In 2002 Michael Schumacher finished every single race. If a driver can do that and win the championship there’s no reason why we can’t see reliability continue to improve.
In a few years time perhaps seeing a retirement of any car during a race may be the exception rather than the norm?
Having said that, the future radical changes to the rules that are planned are likely to impact upon this trend, on a short-term basis at least. It’s clear to see from the graphs above how the introduction of V8 engines in 2006 caused a spike of unreliability that seems to have been corrected this year.
Photo: GEPA / Matthias Kniepeiss