Robert Kubica’s leading the championship now but could he still be on top come the end of the season?
Although he scored his maiden victory for the ever-improving BMW team yesterday it’s still hard to see Kubica as a likely champion. Which would make it all the more remarkable if it did happen.
One thing is for sure: you cannot argue that Kubica is leading the championship because he’s got the best car.
All year long a Ferrari or (occasionally) a McLaren has been the car to have. BMW’s F1.08 has been much closer to the leaders than it was last year, but it’s never looked like winning a ‘normal’ race.
BMW were always going to get their first win in one of those races where the track conditions are mixed and the faster cars drop the ball. And that’s exactly what happened yesterday.
The safety car period brought on by Adrian Sutil’s retirement did two things. First it took half the Ferrari/McLaren contingent out of the running as Felipe Massa and Heikki Kovalainen had to take on fuel after their team mates.
And then the other half were taken out of the race entirely, and Kimi Raikkonen, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg concertina-d into each other in the pit lane.
This is not to take anything away from Kubica’s achievement. He’d qualified an excellent second and was holding the position before the safety car period, although he had dropped back from Hamilton and Raikkonen was quickly closing in.
Makes no mistakes
But Kubica didn’t just win the race by being quick – he did it by being error-free. And that is somethine where he’s excelled all year.
When Stefano Domenicali and Ron Dennis see Kubica on top of the drivers championship standings they have to acknowledge it’s because he hasn’t made the kind of mistakes their drivers have.
Raikkonen threw his car off the road twice at Melbourne and twice again at Monte-Carlo; Felipe Massa didn’t score in the first two races for much the same reason; Lewis Hamilton has assaulted first Fernando Alonso and now Raikkonen from behind.
Kubica has only failed to score once having been eliminated from the Australian Grand Prix by Kazuki Nakajima in a collision where the BMW driver was utterly blameless. A few more points there and he’d be even further in the lead.
Champion?
But here’s the crucial question: will he still be leading the championship on the evening of Sunday 2nd November?
It is often said that when a driver wins his first race it helps them raise their game and become more confident. The art of winning races is revealed to them, and further wins come more easily.
I’m not really convinced by that, though. Was Hamilton a better driver after his win here last year? Not really. And the floodgates haven’t exactly opened for Jarno Trulli and Jenson Button have they? Even Alonso had to wait a year and a half for his second win.
No, in F1 what matters is having a fast car. Kubica has excellent in the last two races because they were unpredictable and hectic: Monaco in the wet, and the disintegrating surface at Montreal. His rivals were suckered into mistakes, he kept cool.
But look at the races to come: Magny-Cours, Silverstone, Hockenheimring, Hungaroring. Expect normal, controlled, no-overtaking races. You’d probably get short odds on a Ferrari one-two in all four.
Although I expect his rivals’ cars to be quicker for most if not all of the remaining races Kubica does hold a few cards. I think the new venues of Valencia and Singapore will play into Kubica’s hands. The Ferrari pair will continue to take points off each other as will the McLarens to a lesser extent, while Kubica has beaten Heidfeld in every qualifying session and race so far this year (barring hs Melbourne DNF).
But unless BMW can find a couple more tenths from their car, I can’t see Kubica holding on to his championship lead until the end of the year. What do you think?
Read more about Robert Kubica: Robert Kubica biography
George
9th June 2008, 15:45
I’m afraid that you are probably right Keith. so much does depend on the car. Though, given a sniff of it, it will be interesting to see how much resource BMW can now pour into their development programme over the next few weeks and months in an attempt to close the gap that does exist between them and the two front-running teams.
Kubica’s situation is, in a way, reminiscent of Hamilton’s last year at this time – as you point out. Whilst he has only just taken his first win, he has consistently been there or thereabouts, and – crucially – not made any errors to date and thus thrown away points. Thus, when they are all added up, he deservedly leads the world championship.
However, BMW really do need to find some pace if he is to have any realistic chance of sustaining his title challenge over the next couple of races. Now, whether they can do that or not is the really interesting bit.
One thing that we can no longer doubt, I think, is this – if BMW CAN provide Kubica with a car to fight for race wins over the summer, he is more than good enough to stay in the hunt.
Michael K
9th June 2008, 16:04
The resources will hardly change on such short notice, but of course something like this gives everyone more self-belief at BMW.
The BMW isn’t all that slow if you look at the qualifying results thes year, but I agree that Ferrari still holds the key to the championship in their own hands. But they have managed to throw away quite a lot this year already, so maybe we will see an Alonso-type of champion again this year…
M Smith
9th June 2008, 16:09
If the situation doesn’t change with BMWs race-pace, I don’t think Kubica will win the championship.
As you said though, Keith, he deservedly leads the championship by making no errors when his rivals in faster cars have lost their heads. Kubica has more than proved that he is a driver that is capable to take the title – BMW just needs to find two or three more tenths in relation to Ferrari and McLaren.
Heidfeld might be able to help in the title fight, as even though at the moment he is slower on pace to Kubica, he is by no means slow, and Canada showed us that he is still a very crafty racer. I expect that when one of the McLarens or Ferraris drop back, Heidfeld will be there waiting to steal a point or two from Kubica’s rivals.
Given Kovalinen’s shortage of results since Spain, and the Ferraris battling with each other, BMW’s constructor hopes look quite strong too.
The way its going now, it looks to be a very exciting season.
GeorgeK
9th June 2008, 16:21
Even Kubica admitted that his car probably didn’t have the pace to win after qualifying in second place, and the way Hamilton opened up a lead prior to the safety car may have been proof. Or fuel strategy.
I don’t think the BMW’s are consistently fast enough to displace either Ferrari or McLaren, but the current points system (poor in my view) may allow them to steal a title if the Canadian mayhem or rain show up at future races.
It does however make for an interesting season!
sajonaraman
9th June 2008, 16:51
I agree with you Keith, but only to a certain extent. I really believe that Kubica has a chance to win the season and having seen Kimi and Massa in Monaco with Hamilton’s “what-the-hell?” yesterday I started to believe it even more. I do not think mistakes like those of mentioned drivers will happen in each race but actually why not? Hamilton is incredibly fast as well as Ferrari duo, but sometimes he just loses it totally while Kimi seems to be thinking about permanent vacation hence the lack of emotions after yesterday’s clash. And Massa is just…Massa I guess- fast but not as consistent as Robert despite the car’s advantage. What’s more- the confidence boost that Kubica got along with his first win is going to play a much bigger role than you think Keith. The Pole already is very strong mentally, much stronger than Lewis and even more icey than the Iceman himself- two features that make a champion. The game is on, let’s see what comes up. Just remember: no-one can now match Kubica’s ability to focus during the race. We’ve all seen it a few times this year.
underdog
9th June 2008, 17:34
I hope he did but BMW is not quite there yet. I guess he will continue challenging the front-runners and might win another race this year. 2009 is definitively BMW and Kubika’s year. Unless, of course, Ferrari and McLaren keep running into each other for the remain of the year …
Arun
9th June 2008, 17:48
I keep holding my emotions on BMW’s victory every race since I know the reds and McLarans would pounce back as soon as they can. I keep getting exited during the race watching Kubica’s driving, Nick’s overtakings, (Piquet was awesome for sometime yesterday) and become happy if things like in canada happens. But then, next 3 are gonna be painfully boring and either of the 2 teams are going to win(am I sounding like ‘the doctor’?), but hey, we’ve got a great new driver in Kubica and good team in BMW,(anyone heard radio comments asking Nick to let Alonso through?) The later part of the season is when I will be again with this energy, come Asia, I hope BMW would repeat Canada and get the freaking crown.. I would be waiting to shout ‘all hail the new king’, then..
Daniel
9th June 2008, 18:17
I just don’t see Kovalainen taking that many points out of Hamilton…
With the current pointscoring system, if Kubica wins another wet/chaotic race, and keeps going to the podium, he’s a real contender, even without the fastest car…
Dorian
9th June 2008, 19:36
Whilst F1 can be unpredictable, as Keith said ‘what matters in F1 is having a fast car’. I agree.
Yes BMW is getting faster and their reliability is good too and Yes sometimes they can match the race-pace of the Ferraris and the McLarens for a spell. But on the whole, they’re still not quite in the same league as the other two. If it were down to the driver, as Sajonaraman says, Kubica’s on form. But at this stage, BMW are not quite there yet. But I’m really hoping over the remainder of the season and onwards, BMW kept evolving in leaps and bounds and one day they’ll be WC competitive.
Regardless of the driver, if I had £100 I’d still put it on a Ferrari or a McLaren winning the championship. And if I had to choose between the two of them……I think I’d pick the Ferrari.
DG
9th June 2008, 20:07
Although I have to agree that the BMW isn’t as fast as a Ferrari or McLaren, the way that the ‘top’ teams keep making mistakes, I can see that BMW have nothing to lose by chasing them at every race, as they have been doing on most circuits so far.
Theres no reason to doubt that now BMW have tasted success, they will want more. I say good luck to them, we don’t want the same old power struggle we get every year. And don’t forget DC and Red Bull will be on a charge from now on too, since they kept up with BMW.
Also Renault, apart from a little brake trouble, were making a good show for once.
Robert McKay
9th June 2008, 21:12
At least on Kubica’s side the fastest team, Ferrari, have Massa and Raikkonen taking big points off each other. BMW isn’t quite able to fight Mclaren, who only really have Hamilton getting big scores, but if he can get alongside Hamilton and the Ferrari drivers keep battling each other then noone is going to be pulling away yet. And BMW are making the fewest mistakes too.
But until Kubica wins a race on pure pace it’s going to be hard to believe he’s a bona fide challenger.
Tamil
9th June 2008, 22:05
For sure he can win. The question is- does he want to?…
frecon
9th June 2008, 23:21
Mario Thiessen doesn’t think so, and I trust him.
Wesley
10th June 2008, 0:38
I would have to say that Kubica is an awesome driver but,for now can only pick up the points when they mighty silver,and red teams are having their off days.
I think BMW will have the proper car next year(or two)to compete.I would LOVE to see Kubica be champion in a BMW.
Gman
10th June 2008, 0:54
It’s tough to say that Kubica will be in the championship hunt at the end of the season- I don’t expect McLaren and Ferrari to mpoe around in the coming races. A key to whatever Robert is able to accomplish is Heidfeld- if he can take points off rival drivers with poits finishes and perhaps a first win, it will go along way for BMW’s chances at both titles.
If I had to lean one way or the other, I’d say Kubica probably will not be the champion this season, but there’s no question that he will figure in the mix as the other teams and drivers battle it out.
FLIG
10th June 2008, 2:06
Apart from his DNF the only races that he didn’t get between silver and red was in Turkey and Spain
The way I see it this means that we have Reds days and Silver days – but he is always there in front of the silver when its a red day and in front of the red when its a silver day
If he can keep that routine and grab a couple more wins he will be champion!
Consistency – even though he’s not winning as much as the others he is always there on podium
That’s the key! And that’s Bmw’s strenght I’d say – it’s not the faster in any circuit – but it’s not so much behind the faster car in any circuit (as oposed to silvers and reds – they can’t keep each other’s pace)
teamorders
10th June 2008, 2:13
Stranger things have happened in championships in the past (eg ’86) than if a guy of Kubica’s quality with an almost on the pace car wins the WDC this year.
The guys in the 2 top teams have frankly been poor this year so far. Compared the quality of drivers in the 80s/90s, the current crop is well below par.
If it stays like this then Kubica will indeed be a very worthy champion. That’s when my heart says.
My head says Kimi will eventially get motivated enough to reassert himself on the track, like he did in the 2nd half of 2007, and take another championship. Mind you, his pat of LH on the back at Hamilton after the incident wasn’t a good indicator of a man hungry for the WDC.
teamorders
10th June 2008, 2:14
oops “at Hamilton” should have read “at Canada”. I’ve got LH on the brain, LOL.
Pink Peril
10th June 2008, 3:47
Stranger things have happened. I mean, who woulda thunk that the danger in Montreal would be in the pit lane? ;)
Kubica seems to excel on the street circuits – and we have five this year, not to mention two brand new ones. If he keeps his head on those & doesn’t make mistakes like both Kimi and Lewis have done at Monaco,Montreal & Melbourne, then I see no reason why he can’t win at either Singapore or Valencia – or both. A resurgant Alonso/Renault could well be the fly in the ointment there also, but if Kubica keeps on racking up the points and a win or two, then he could well be a contender for 2008 WDC.
One thing is for sure – 2009 is shaping up to be a corker of a season with slicks, possibly Alonso in a winning car, BMW-Sauber in the mix as well as the usual suspects. Bring it on !
michael counsell
10th June 2008, 6:14
You can never be sure that the BMW is 3 tenths off Ferrari’s pace, Massa and Raikkonen may be 3 tenths faster than Kubica. No one knows.
I don’t quite buy the fact that Ferrari and McLaren are intrinsically faster. Kubica may be a slower and steadier driver and Heidfeld even slower and steadier.
Anything can still happen but on the basis of the first seven races Kubica is a deserving championship leader, but so maybe is Raikkonen and to a slightly lesser degree, Hamilton and Massa.
cyanide
10th June 2008, 7:40
Can Kubica win the title? Possible, but not probable.
Can BMW win the constructors title? That looks like a better thing to bet on at this point… Constructors’ championship rewards consistency handsomely, and that’s something BMW have been this season.
Brar Soler
10th June 2008, 8:05
Kubica in worldchampisship first place, nowadays is something incredible. I don´t remember the last time that happens.
Worth more today.
He don´t need to do nothing more. He is already in history for several reasons.
sChUmAcHeRtHeGrEaTeStEvEr
10th June 2008, 8:22
After 7 races, KIMI, massa and hamilton have 2 wins each, Kubica 1. but whos been the most consistent and making the least mistakes?? easily kubica.
if this pattern keeps up for the rest of the season he doenst need to win many races because of the point system which rewards consistency.
Personally i dont think he’ll do it i reckon it’l be a 3 way fight between the ferrari’s and hamilton with massa and kimi taking points off eachother lewis has a real chance, he just has to stop the stupid mistakes, hes made 2 already this year.
If kimi is going to retire next year and i wa sin charge at ferrari id go for kubica hes fast and doesnt make mistakes.
Oliver
10th June 2008, 9:00
Kubica is very strong upstairs, in the head. Thats one area he is better than some of the other top drivers, Kimi and Hamilton included.
George
10th June 2008, 10:01
Tamil – ‘does he want to?’. Do fish swim in the sea?…
A non-question really.
Alianora La Canta
10th June 2008, 14:35
I can see Kubica winning the championship, but only if he does what Raikkonen did last year and go down the middle of a path created by the more likely cotenders. He’s got the brains and the vehicle to be an outsider for it on merit, but he will have to rely on McLaren and Ferrari continuing to make errors in order to actually win this year.
There probably won’t be a big burst of resources from BMW to boost such a bid for the simple reason that it will concentrate on 2009 and aim to get multiple wins (and a stronger championship bid) then. BMW seems more concerned about sustainability than short-term glory-grabbing, which means that investment in 2008 is of limited use to them.
Spodo
10th June 2008, 15:24
I think Ferrari have the best car. But Williams had the best car in ’86 and lost the drivers’ title because its drivers contested each other and shared points roughly evenly. This year, the Ferrari drivers are contesting each other. But at BMW, Kubica is getting the lion’s share of the points. So he may end up winning the title…
Though he was a deserved winner in Canada, I wonder what would have happened if Nick Heidfeld was closer to him in the championship. If NH and RK were truly contesting each other, then it wouldn’t have been fair for BMW to force Nick to let Robert through. Because Nick would have won and Robert may even have come third – a swing of 6 points from the actual result in Nick’s favour. That is, instead of being 14 points behind, Nick would be only 8 points behind his teammate, who instead of being the outright championship leader would be the joint championship leader. Being 8 points off the championship lead after Canada would make Nick’s season suddenly a lot less unimpressive, would it not?
BMW escaped criticism of their manipulation of the race because the manipulation was geniunely in the team’s interest (because letting RK through would have turned a likely 1-3 into a likely 1-2). What would have happened if McLaren in 2007 asked one of its drivers to let the other through under the same circumstances?
HallDoor
10th June 2008, 15:41
Kubica as a WDC with BMW… I don’t think so…
BTW Kubica’s contract expires this year and there are rumors that Kimi Raikkonen might retire… Also, Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo doesn’t want Fernando Alonso in his team…
How about Kubica going to Ferrari at end of this year? ;)
If that happens and Ferrari maintains the race pace they have right now, I see Kubica as future WDC!
Jean
10th June 2008, 16:04
Keith , as you say , the big advantage Kubica has is that his team mate is looking unlikely to take points off him at any stage , to add to that he is consistently visiting the podium.The Ferrari drivers seem set to continue taking points off each other. Hamilton has been quick , but had his problems too , and although it is not his team mate taking points off him , instead usually a BMW , a Ferrari or even two Ferrari’s. But how much longer before Ferrari make a call on which driver will go for the championship ? If they don’t , will be Kubica’s greatest chance. On that , I would regard him with a 5/1 chance.
William Wilgus
10th June 2008, 17:34
It’s absolutely LUDICROUS that in the Driver’s Championship, a driver who has won ONLY ONE race is ahead of drivers that have won TWO. Look up the `champion’ in any dictionary and it will give the primary definition as `WINNER’.
Alianora La Canta
10th June 2008, 18:41
Consistency counts for something, though, and none of Hamilton, Raikkonen or Massa have been consistent. Kovalainen’s been consistently unlucky and nobody else was plausible.
Arun S
10th June 2008, 19:07
William, in 1982 Keke Rosberg won the championship with just one victory in Swiss GP.
sajonaraman
10th June 2008, 20:29
William Wilgus:
I’ve checked the definition of a champion in the Cambridge Dictionary and look what I’ve found:
someone or something, especially a person or animal, that has beaten all other competitors in a competition;
I believe you’re able to figure out the meaning of these words yourself. Cheers.
Nik
10th June 2008, 21:42
He only needs to be consistent to have a good chance at it. His luck is that the Ferrari and McLaren drivers are a motley crue who keep bumping into each other and making mistakes. Thats why if Kubica is consistent, he can be on the podium every race this year (since it is unlikely you will ever see the 4 better cars qualify and then finish a race ahead of him). His car isn’t the fastest, but it doesn’t need to be.
Its only a 4 point difference between the top step and the lowest step on a podium. Coming in third twice is a lot better than winning one race and then flying off the track in the next on.. thats why the drivers board is what it is right now (you can see that Massa, Kimmi and Lewis each have 2 wins, 2 podiums and then the rest bad finishes).
So yes, he can do it, unless one of Massa, Raikkonen or Hamilton somehow get their act together and manage to stay consistent.
Nik
10th June 2008, 21:43
oh and further, the reason is simply because of the points system, which is why 10,8,6 is so much better than 10,6,4 because it rewards consistency.
jose
10th June 2008, 21:45
Sure he can win it. He just needs to beleive it. The bmw team as well. Do they already have that winning mentality? we will see in the next races. It is time for a change of plans.
Wesley
10th June 2008, 22:47
Totally agree Alianora
Kubica keeps his attention focused and his car on the track.Kimi,Massa,Hamilton and Alonso are all very good,very fast drivers but,all of them have made stupid mistakes.Robert seems more professional than his more experienced rivals sometimes.
Slow and steady wins the race.(or fast and steady in F1,s case)
Slawek
11th June 2008, 2:52
I don’t know about Europe but it sureley does rain a lot in Canada this year. If we see a few wet races till the end of this season i think Robert , Nick and BMW (constructor points) have big chances to win races. In my opinion Robert and Nick prooved on several ocasions they are both excellent wet track drivers. Would that be enough to keep the championship in his hands till the end? Very hard to tell. There is a lot of things that would have to go right for Robert and his car . Lets enjoy watching without predictions
William Wilgus
11th June 2008, 14:43
sajonaraman et. al.
Sorry, but OED’s definition does not alter the fact that the points system is inherently unfair. Under it, a driver who won NO races COULD wind up being named `champion’. Consistency? Sure, consistently winning is admirable, but consistently being last isn’t. If consistency were the only factor in determining the champion, then a driver that finished last in every race would have a claim to the title.
Finally, `beaten’ is just another word for `won’.
Sush
11th June 2008, 19:18
Arun, new great driver in Kubica?, you what dude?, Kubica has always been brilliant (last year was bad i know), but put him in the a field with rivals with the same machine…. and he would win
I’m glad he’s at BMW
also of note, last year Kubica spun (at fuji i believe) and hit Hamilton in the wet, Hamilton was livid saying it was a stupid move that could have taken him out of the race. Hamilton takes Kimi out of the race and he states “just one of those things” …. at 35mph… IN THE DRY!
William Wilgus, I do believe in the “coming second isn’t winning silver its losing gold” comment you make…. but under that kinda scoring someone like Shoemaker and Brains (Ross) would actually take out an opponent to ensure they wouldn’t get that one extra gold needed.
Arun S
11th June 2008, 19:46
Hey Sush, good that you’ve always considered Kubica to be a brilliant driver, I did too. I was referring to the world knowing/getting a new great driver in form of Kubica, not to insightful f1 fans like you who know the drivers well. I was referring to general public for whom the race winners are always great drivers and vice versa.
Sush
11th June 2008, 22:02
oh right sorry!, you meant as a “flavour of the month” type in the media?.
Arun S
11th June 2008, 22:18
Exactly..
sajonaraman
11th June 2008, 23:17
The “flavour of the month” is still an optional status for Kubica in F1 series Sush, he’s young remember. Although, looking back at his racing record before F1 you’ll soon discover that he has an excellent foundation to take the glory on his back. I’m not saying his main contenders this season were short of experience when they first sat behind the F1 car’s wheel, but what we see right now is clearly showing that if given a comparable machine Robert has something more than pace: a complete, mentally composed personality, something at least one of his oponents is aparently short of and I think we all know who’s image has just crossed my mind. I exclude Raikkonen from this equation. He is a reigning champ and his goal is to defend the title. It’s definately a different kind of a pressure than the chasing pack is experiencing. Let’s wait and see. This can still be an epic season.
the limit
12th June 2008, 1:43
Yes he can. Like everybody else has said, Kubica needs to maintain his consistency which is, as others have mentioned, not unlike Hamilton’s start last season.
My big concern for him, is when he does make a mistake. Hamilton’s title challenge was unhinged by mistakes at Brazil and China which ultimately cost him a championship that at one point appeared almost certain to be his.
In the last two grands prix, Kubica has pounced on the errors of his rivals, Raikkonen in Monaco and now Hamilton in Montreal. It is vital that this trend is not reversed if Kubica is to become champion.
Looking at it another way, Kubica and BMW Sauber are the underdogs in this battle, especially if it goes down to the wire. Raikkonen is the defending champion, driving for the sports most successfull team, oodles of pressure involved. Hamilton has, to some extent, simular levels of pressure coming off the back of last season, and as he is now the team leader at McLaren.
What of Kubica? Up until a few years ago, Sauber were an eternal midfield team that would have been pleased with fifth place finishes, never mind race wins.
With BMW’s financial clout and some of the sharpest men in F1 onboard, they are now flying, really flying!!
Kubica can really do it. He just has to avoid the sandtrap coming into the pits at Shanghai, thats all.
Sush
12th June 2008, 9:50
the limit, i’m pretty sure they’ve taken the sandtrap out of that race now.
Dan
12th June 2008, 18:02
Well I can see where someone might think that Ferrari are taking points from each other but it makes no sense. People herein are saying that Massa and Kimi are taking points from each other and the other two contenders don’t have a team mate to compete with. This makes no sense because mathematically this means that somehow all teams get a certain amount of points to divide between each driver. If Ferrari continue to have 1-2 finishes or even alternate between 1-3 finishes at least one Ferrari driver will be a Schu-in (bad joke, I know)
As for Kubica, I think he should be happy with where he is at at this point and this talk of him winning the championship this season is really a moot point as it’s only come to light due to a win, which in terms of racing (by definition), was not deserved. To say he has been the more consistent driver is also a load because he was just lucky Hamilton chose to mount Kimi not him.
If Hamilton continues to show his inexperience in the next half of the season then Massa will win his first Championship. Reason being, it seems to be Kimi that cops the treatment when Lewis makes an error. I’m already over the boy wonder, as you may have noticed. As much as I hate him (only because he hasn’t steered a Ferrari) I wish Alonso was with a more competitive team this season. At least I would be happy in the knowledge that a better sportsman and driver was taking it to Ferrari.
Dorian
12th June 2008, 19:12
You’re right on the money there Dan (re:your first paragraph). Mathematically one driver’s points do not directly diminish another driver’s points save the fact that there’s only 10, 8, 6, 5…. etc points to gain per driver per race.
I’m thinking that the point the others are saying is that the other competitive teams pretty much know which horse they’re backing whereas Ferrari do not know which prancing horse will be the main contender. Apologies for the puns ;-)
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
12th June 2008, 20:43
Dan – I don’t agree. If either Hamilton or Alonso had been made to support the other driver last year then their team mate would almost certainly have won the title.
Clearly, if a team lets both their drivers fight for the championship it stands to reason that each can diminish the points tally of the other. And given that we had the top three drivers separated by one point last year, that can easily be enough to swing the championship.
Indeed, if Massa had not deferred to Raikkonen in the final round Alonso would have been champion.
Dan
13th June 2008, 1:47
Keith,
I can see your point, however I don’t think it will ever manifest in the real world due to the competitive mindset of all the drivers or rather contenders. I believe that Massa only did what he did because it was the logical thing to do from a team stand point. I don’t think this season will be as close as the last because last year we had four good drivers on only two teams, getting the most out of their cars. This season we have four good drivers two on one team and two on seperate teams. Therefore the Ferrari’s have a better chance of splitting the major points and protecting each other at the money end of the season, which will only become relevant if it happens to get as close as last year. One other flaw I see in your point is that if Ferrari continue to take turns at 1st’s and podium’s it stands to reason that a Ferrari driver will be champion. Only one driver walks away with 10 points per race. It could alsp be generalised that the odds are 2:4 that Ferrari will herald another world champ. Not bad odds really. This then equates to Lewis or Kubica having to WIN more races not just consistently come 2nd, 3rd or 4th.
One other point is in relation to Kubica and the fact that he could be considered the counter to my argument and support of your’s. Yet this would be false as the points issue is only such when points are scored. Let’s not forget the DNF’s sustained by most of the contenders. If Kimi didn’t have bad luck etc and he finished top five in the last two races we wouldn’t even be talking about this issue.
Of the contenders other than Ferraris’, Lewis is the only one that can “consistently” win races (at the moment anyway, you never know what a scrappy win could do for Kubica’s confidence)
After all this talk about points and odds etc I have had a novel idea. How about F1 scrap the Drivers Championship and have a Team/Contructor’s Championship only!!! I wonder how dominant Ferrari would be then? The way it would work would be that drivers simply drive to the finish. The points system stays the same yet at the end of the race both drivers points are added together and then added to the team’s total. I suppose you could still have a driver’s championship however it would be performance based and must come from the winning team at the end of the season. Just an idea!?!?
Sumedh
20th June 2008, 10:36
Excellent point Keith, If Massa had not given way to Kimi, Alonso indeed would have been world champion. ( Will Mclaren have dropped him still ? We will never know :) )
Dan, you talk about not forgetting DNFs and bad luck sustained by a few drivers more. But all these “inconsistencies” have become far more consistent this year ! ! And, I suppose it will stay that way. Ferrari probably have the worst strategy team ( Japan last year, Monaco, Montreal) compared to BMW and Mclaren. So, inspite of the fastest car, Ferrari drivers won’t enjoy a comfortable reign at the top of the table
Probably, Ferrari will decide late on whom to support, and that fellow will battle out with Hamilton and Kubika, who will DEFINTELY be in the hunt till late.
I see Kubika in similar position to Kimi in 2003, not fastest, but consistent
xxxyyy
30th June 2008, 10:51
If u look at hamilton’s reliability it’s really really poor I must say. If we take this year + 2 last races from 2007 (which started his mentall slump) it’s easy to deduct that he lost 4 races out of 10 (with magny cours) on his own stupidity and lack of concentration – my question is : if someone who was eliminated on his own wish in 40% of races can really think of becoming a champion – I think not really…it gives us almost one race in two when he does some fatal error, not being forced by car or other driver’s mistake. As I see it he got too much preasure on his head and as we can clearly see he doesn’t know how to manage it (no matter what he says, couse he think he can).
Don’t get me wrong – he’s a great driver (maybe a little bit overestimated couse being in a title chase in an illegal car is not something that impress me a lot, he and alonso should be disqualified last year as happened to their team) but what happened last year put him in position which is harmfull to him.
For me only ferrari is there this year, maybe Kubica can make it, what I hope for… i think, so far, he is the driver who makes the most out of his car. Being a leader in the middle of the season is really outstanding but we must also realise how it happened – in each race he got 4 cars faster than his car and in almost each race he outqualifies few of them and in almost every race he ends in front of few of them. It’s like David fighting Goliath, and I think he makes it perfect.
If he win this year’s championship it will be one of the greates titles in history – couse it’s not an art to win if you got the fastest car – but try winning in the slowest one….