Debate: Can Robert Kubica win the title?
Robert Kubica’s leading the championship now but could he still be on top come the end of the season?
Although he scored his maiden victory for the ever-improving BMW team yesterday it’s still hard to see Kubica as a likely champion. Which would make it all the more remarkable if it did happen.
One thing is for sure: you cannot argue that Kubica is leading the championship because he’s got the best car.
All year long a Ferrari or (occasionally) a McLaren has been the car to have. BMW’s F1.08 has been much closer to the leaders than it was last year, but it’s never looked like winning a ‘normal’ race.
BMW were always going to get their first win in one of those races where the track conditions are mixed and the faster cars drop the ball. And that’s exactly what happened yesterday.
The safety car period brought on by Adrian Sutil’s retirement did two things. First it took half the Ferrari/McLaren contingent out of the running as Felipe Massa and Heikki Kovalainen had to take on fuel after their team mates.
And then the other half were taken out of the race entirely, and Kimi Raikkonen, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg concertina-d into each other in the pit lane.
This is not to take anything away from Kubica’s achievement. He’d qualified an excellent second and was holding the position before the safety car period, although he had dropped back from Hamilton and Raikkonen was quickly closing in.
Makes no mistakes
But Kubica didn’t just win the race by being quick – he did it by being error-free. And that is somethine where he’s excelled all year.
When Stefano Domenicali and Ron Dennis see Kubica on top of the drivers championship standings they have to acknowledge it’s because he hasn’t made the kind of mistakes their drivers have.
Raikkonen threw his car off the road twice at Melbourne and twice again at Monte-Carlo; Felipe Massa didn’t score in the first two races for much the same reason; Lewis Hamilton has assaulted first Fernando Alonso and now Raikkonen from behind.
Kubica has only failed to score once having been eliminated from the Australian Grand Prix by Kazuki Nakajima in a collision where the BMW driver was utterly blameless. A few more points there and he’d be even further in the lead.
Champion?
But here’s the crucial question: will he still be leading the championship on the evening of Sunday 2nd November?
It is often said that when a driver wins his first race it helps them raise their game and become more confident. The art of winning races is revealed to them, and further wins come more easily.
I’m not really convinced by that, though. Was Hamilton a better driver after his win here last year? Not really. And the floodgates haven’t exactly opened for Jarno Trulli and Jenson Button have they? Even Alonso had to wait a year and a half for his second win.
No, in F1 what matters is having a fast car. Kubica has excellent in the last two races because they were unpredictable and hectic: Monaco in the wet, and the disintegrating surface at Montreal. His rivals were suckered into mistakes, he kept cool.
But look at the races to come: Magny-Cours, Silverstone, Hockenheimring, Hungaroring. Expect normal, controlled, no-overtaking races. You’d probably get short odds on a Ferrari one-two in all four.
Although I expect his rivals’ cars to be quicker for most if not all of the remaining races Kubica does hold a few cards. I think the new venues of Valencia and Singapore will play into Kubica’s hands. The Ferrari pair will continue to take points off each other as will the McLarens to a lesser extent, while Kubica has beaten Heidfeld in every qualifying session and race so far this year (barring hs Melbourne DNF).
But unless BMW can find a couple more tenths from their car, I can’t see Kubica holding on to his championship lead until the end of the year. What do you think?
Read more about Robert Kubica: Robert Kubica biography
FLIG said on 10th June 2008, 2:06
Apart from his DNF the only races that he didn’t get between silver and red was in Turkey and Spain
The way I see it this means that we have Reds days and Silver days – but he is always there in front of the silver when its a red day and in front of the red when its a silver day
If he can keep that routine and grab a couple more wins he will be champion!
Consistency – even though he’s not winning as much as the others he is always there on podium
That’s the key! And that’s Bmw’s strenght I’d say – it’s not the faster in any circuit – but it’s not so much behind the faster car in any circuit (as oposed to silvers and reds – they can’t keep each other’s pace)
teamorders said on 10th June 2008, 2:13
Stranger things have happened in championships in the past (eg ’86) than if a guy of Kubica’s quality with an almost on the pace car wins the WDC this year.
The guys in the 2 top teams have frankly been poor this year so far. Compared the quality of drivers in the 80s/90s, the current crop is well below par.
If it stays like this then Kubica will indeed be a very worthy champion. That’s when my heart says.
My head says Kimi will eventially get motivated enough to reassert himself on the track, like he did in the 2nd half of 2007, and take another championship. Mind you, his pat of LH on the back at Hamilton after the incident wasn’t a good indicator of a man hungry for the WDC.
teamorders said on 10th June 2008, 2:14
oops “at Hamilton” should have read “at Canada”. I’ve got LH on the brain, LOL.
Pink Peril said on 10th June 2008, 3:47
Stranger things have happened. I mean, who woulda thunk that the danger in Montreal would be in the pit lane? ;)
Kubica seems to excel on the street circuits – and we have five this year, not to mention two brand new ones. If he keeps his head on those & doesn’t make mistakes like both Kimi and Lewis have done at Monaco,Montreal & Melbourne, then I see no reason why he can’t win at either Singapore or Valencia – or both. A resurgant Alonso/Renault could well be the fly in the ointment there also, but if Kubica keeps on racking up the points and a win or two, then he could well be a contender for 2008 WDC.
One thing is for sure – 2009 is shaping up to be a corker of a season with slicks, possibly Alonso in a winning car, BMW-Sauber in the mix as well as the usual suspects. Bring it on !
michael counsell said on 10th June 2008, 6:14
You can never be sure that the BMW is 3 tenths off Ferrari’s pace, Massa and Raikkonen may be 3 tenths faster than Kubica. No one knows.
I don’t quite buy the fact that Ferrari and McLaren are intrinsically faster. Kubica may be a slower and steadier driver and Heidfeld even slower and steadier.
Anything can still happen but on the basis of the first seven races Kubica is a deserving championship leader, but so maybe is Raikkonen and to a slightly lesser degree, Hamilton and Massa.
cyanide said on 10th June 2008, 7:40
Can Kubica win the title? Possible, but not probable.
Can BMW win the constructors title? That looks like a better thing to bet on at this point… Constructors’ championship rewards consistency handsomely, and that’s something BMW have been this season.
Brar Soler said on 10th June 2008, 8:05
Kubica in worldchampisship first place, nowadays is something incredible. I don´t remember the last time that happens.
Worth more today.
He don´t need to do nothing more. He is already in history for several reasons.
sChUmAcHeRtHeGrEaTeStEvEr said on 10th June 2008, 8:22
After 7 races, KIMI, massa and hamilton have 2 wins each, Kubica 1. but whos been the most consistent and making the least mistakes?? easily kubica.
if this pattern keeps up for the rest of the season he doenst need to win many races because of the point system which rewards consistency.
Personally i dont think he’ll do it i reckon it’l be a 3 way fight between the ferrari’s and hamilton with massa and kimi taking points off eachother lewis has a real chance, he just has to stop the stupid mistakes, hes made 2 already this year.
If kimi is going to retire next year and i wa sin charge at ferrari id go for kubica hes fast and doesnt make mistakes.
Oliver said on 10th June 2008, 9:00
Kubica is very strong upstairs, in the head. Thats one area he is better than some of the other top drivers, Kimi and Hamilton included.
George said on 10th June 2008, 10:01
Tamil – ‘does he want to?’. Do fish swim in the sea?…
A non-question really.
Alianora La Canta said on 10th June 2008, 14:35
I can see Kubica winning the championship, but only if he does what Raikkonen did last year and go down the middle of a path created by the more likely cotenders. He’s got the brains and the vehicle to be an outsider for it on merit, but he will have to rely on McLaren and Ferrari continuing to make errors in order to actually win this year.
There probably won’t be a big burst of resources from BMW to boost such a bid for the simple reason that it will concentrate on 2009 and aim to get multiple wins (and a stronger championship bid) then. BMW seems more concerned about sustainability than short-term glory-grabbing, which means that investment in 2008 is of limited use to them.
Spodo said on 10th June 2008, 15:24
I think Ferrari have the best car. But Williams had the best car in ’86 and lost the drivers’ title because its drivers contested each other and shared points roughly evenly. This year, the Ferrari drivers are contesting each other. But at BMW, Kubica is getting the lion’s share of the points. So he may end up winning the title…
Though he was a deserved winner in Canada, I wonder what would have happened if Nick Heidfeld was closer to him in the championship. If NH and RK were truly contesting each other, then it wouldn’t have been fair for BMW to force Nick to let Robert through. Because Nick would have won and Robert may even have come third – a swing of 6 points from the actual result in Nick’s favour. That is, instead of being 14 points behind, Nick would be only 8 points behind his teammate, who instead of being the outright championship leader would be the joint championship leader. Being 8 points off the championship lead after Canada would make Nick’s season suddenly a lot less unimpressive, would it not?
BMW escaped criticism of their manipulation of the race because the manipulation was geniunely in the team’s interest (because letting RK through would have turned a likely 1-3 into a likely 1-2). What would have happened if McLaren in 2007 asked one of its drivers to let the other through under the same circumstances?
HallDoor said on 10th June 2008, 15:41
Kubica as a WDC with BMW… I don’t think so…
BTW Kubica’s contract expires this year and there are rumors that Kimi Raikkonen might retire… Also, Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo doesn’t want Fernando Alonso in his team…
How about Kubica going to Ferrari at end of this year? ;)
If that happens and Ferrari maintains the race pace they have right now, I see Kubica as future WDC!
Jean said on 10th June 2008, 16:04
Keith , as you say , the big advantage Kubica has is that his team mate is looking unlikely to take points off him at any stage , to add to that he is consistently visiting the podium.The Ferrari drivers seem set to continue taking points off each other. Hamilton has been quick , but had his problems too , and although it is not his team mate taking points off him , instead usually a BMW , a Ferrari or even two Ferrari’s. But how much longer before Ferrari make a call on which driver will go for the championship ? If they don’t , will be Kubica’s greatest chance. On that , I would regard him with a 5/1 chance.
William Wilgus said on 10th June 2008, 17:34
It’s absolutely LUDICROUS that in the Driver’s Championship, a driver who has won ONLY ONE race is ahead of drivers that have won TWO. Look up the `champion’ in any dictionary and it will give the primary definition as `WINNER’.