Tied at the top: Who will be champion?
It’s a three-way tie at the top of the F1 championship as the season passes its halfway point.
So which of the three drivers leading the F1 title race – Lewis Hamilton, Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen – will be leading come the season’s end?
Or will it be Robert Kubica, currently only two points adrift? Or someone else?
I still think the smart money is on Kimi Raikkonen to be champion. The Ferrari is, on balance, the faster car, and the team don’t make strategic blunders the likes of which we saw yesterday all that often.
Over the past three races Raikkonen has been right at the front but factors not entirely under his control have conspired again him: bad tyre choices (Silverstone), faulty exhausts (Magny-Cours) and kamikaze assaults from fellow championship rivals (Montreal).
On a normal day, in normal conditions, Raikkonen is still the man to beat.
Lewis Hamilton will be on a massive confidence high after yesterday’s result. If, from this point on, he cuts out the mistakes and drives like he did on Sunday every weekend, he will be a formidable championship opponent.
But even then, the McLaren-Mercedes MP4/23 is not as quick as a Ferrari F2008. Oh, and the constructors’ championship is Ferrari’s to lose. Which means Felipe Massa is at least as strong a championship contender as Hamilton.
Robert Kubica has done stunningly well to stay as close to the leaders this long, and until yesterday had barely put a wheel wrong all year. And you have to think that spinning out on shallow grooved tyres in heavy rain is among the more forgivable mistakes a driver can make.
Nonetheless BMW have increasingly looked off the pace of Ferrari and McLaren since Kubica’s breakthrough win at Montreal.
So, under normal conditions, I’d expect Raikkonen to hold onto his title. But we’ve had plenty of ‘abnormal’ races in the first half of the season, so why couldn’t that happen in the second half?
After all there are two unknown tracks yet to come, plus Fuji, which the teams have little to no experience of in dry conditions…
diseased rat said on 7th July 2008, 17:40
It’s got to be between Hamilton and Raikkonen. They both have what it takes on their day and are in machinery which can deliver. I’d like to think Kubica (or even Heidfeld) could compete but the car isn’t up to the task yet.
I was surprised with just how bad Massa was on Sunday. It had to be more than him being simply awful in the wet, his car was not set up right after his practice crash then qualifying wheel nut issue. I suspect someone better in the wet would have coped with the cars problems somewhat more gracefully though. If he can get his mind right and the weather gives him dry races for the rest of the season then he is capable of being a contender as well. I wouldn’t want to put money on him though.
Scott Joslin said on 7th July 2008, 19:25
Ooooh what a time to ask a question like this!
I would tend to agree with Keith, the slight favorite will be Kimi, but I am interested to see if the Mclaren has actually made a step forward on the fast tracks, because in the dry at Silverstone, a circuit they were expected to dominate, they were slower than the Mclaren’s. Ok, so lets say Ferrari had an off Weekend and the next few tracks might favour the Ferrari, but the additions to the calender should suit the Mclaren as they are street tracks, so If lewis can keep close to Kimi over the next 3 races, I think we should be in for an amazingly close end to the season.
After sunday, I am going write off Massa!
Plus, listening to Lewis’s comments at the end of ITV’s highlights he said something I have never heard him say, “In the next race, I just want to get some points”
Instead of saying I am definatly going all out to win and be a hero. Perhaps a sign he might be maturing?
Sush – just give me your £30 mate, never going to happen :)
martinb said on 7th July 2008, 20:03
The way points are allocated rewards consistency, so no one’s going to win WDC, but Kimi will come second.
Juhhi said on 7th July 2008, 20:21
Why somebody is saying that Mclaren was fastest on sunday and even when it was dry?
Take a look who did fastest lap in GP. Sure Mclaren has improved their car(or was this just bad weekend for ferrari).
If Kimi would have same tires like Hamilton, the result could have been very different. Ok, that is just if and if…
F1Fan said on 7th July 2008, 20:50
Kimi will win again. Lewis has had his allotment of wet races and Ferrari theirs of silly mistakes. Even in Silverstone, with the same tyres and exact same fule load, Kimi set fastest lap and Lewis did not. This is not to say that Lewis is not the best wet-weather driver, but overall Kimi remains the fastest of them all. If Ferrari cut out the foolishness, Kimi wins by a mile.
As a side note, I hope that the Webber and Button discussions are now over for good. Button is useless (he is supposed to be good in rain and lost in grand fashion to the oldest driver in F1, who also took a podium place). And Webber is at best mediocre, and the top teams know it and they want nothing to do w/ him.
Oliver said on 7th July 2008, 21:34
As far as I’m concerned, Massa’s driving was no different from Kimmi’s in Monaco. Completely off the pace when necessary, the only difference being that Massa was off many more times. Kimi managed to lose the car several times himself and he was also on fresh intermediate tyres then. Hamilton did go off track but he never lost control of the car, even while on wet grass.
The race for the championship is still wide open. Kimi has half a hand on it because the car he drives has the best all round performance of any other car on the grid. Hamilton is the driver who would have to work hardest, even much harder than Massa.
Wesley said on 7th July 2008, 21:48
I would say Kimi has the best chance but,I am not going to write off the BMW boys.They are consistant,I honestly think they have a shot at it.Just look at how steady they were Sunday,I was so proud to see Heidfeld making his way through and then holding coarse while everyone around him was spinning out,and off track.
…and Massa performed just as expected,he is nothing without the red car…and when it rains he is just plain nothing.
Hamilton is fast but,after watching all the mistakes so far (except Silverstone-what a drive!) I think it might be another season before we see him take the championship.
My point ,I guess,is all the others are having technical problems,strategic foul ups and just plain bad luck….except BMW who are consistant and focused.
Alastair said on 7th July 2008, 22:17
Kimi got the fastest lap on Sunday and the past five races in a row.
IF Ferrari can get their act together and the car doesn’t fall apart, then perhaps Kimi will win, but Lewis might take it if the Red team keep tripping over their own feet.
Alianora La Canta said on 7th July 2008, 22:46
I think Kimi will win because he usually finishes stronger than he starts. If he’s equal first after the weaker half of his season, then logically he should be better than equal first by season’s end.
Pink Peril said on 8th July 2008, 0:34
Well, if McLaren and Ferrari keep on alternating their brain fades on a rotating basis, then Kubica might just sneak through and win it.
But if Ferrari manage to keep it together, then I think Kimi will be WDC again this year.
Jian said on 8th July 2008, 2:58
OF the last 9 races, I would say 5 are Ferrari tracks and 4 are McLaren tracks (the 2 street tracks, Hungary and Fuji). A very rough estimate that might not mean a thing more than that the championship is wide open in every which way. The thing that might help Hamilton is of course the in-team struggle between Massa and Kimi, just like the whole Alonso-Hamilton rivalry partially helped Kimi to the title last year. Heikki seems to be lacking a good fight, would rather prefer Heidfeld in a McLaren car.
Sri said on 8th July 2008, 3:06
Well, Mass IS driving like a joke in the wet, KIMI’s car and his luck is falling apart. However, Ferrari remain the team to beat, as is opined. Reliable as hell and faster than a speeding bullet(couldn’t resist :D ). If Ferrari, manage not to have too many of their brain-fade episodes, then either Massa/ Kimi stand to win the championship. Well, as long as there are no more wet races. Well i do like Massa, but he’s got some practice staring him in his face.
Jonesracing82 said on 8th July 2008, 8:24
thats the beauty of this season!
half way and still no clue as to a likely champion!
‘watch this space
Heidfeld is only 12pts down so if BMW can get back to where they were and nick can have a good 21nd half he and kubica could be a longshot!
more likely it will b hamo or a ferrari driver!
Scott Joslin said on 8th July 2008, 11:19
Juhhi – Kimi did have the same tyres as Lewis for 2/3rds of the race so I am not sure that the claim he did not have the same tyres as Lewis can be the whole reason.
Just to clear up my previous comments, on Friday and Saturday, in the dry at Silverstone, the Ferrari was expected to be fastest – yet they were slower than the Mclaren’s, we will see in Germany what the real picture is I suppose.
qazuhb said on 8th July 2008, 12:24
Last year, Hamilton was leading more comfortably (Lewis 70, Fernando 58, Kimi 52 if I get my numbers right) at this point but failed to achieve the championship. However, IF only two “disaster” races were “allowed” in the season, i’d rather have Montreal and Magny than Shanghai and Interlagos… Also, the “enemy within” is at Ferrari this season, Heikki is too far away to avoid being forced to a pit stop “strategy” to let Lewis win (like the one we saw at Interlagos last year…) It’s fair to say that at Silverstone, Lewis didn’t seem to feel that the team would order Heikki to let him pass…