F1 likely to get rain for Brazil finale
The 2003 Brazilian Grand Prix was run in terrible conditions
Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton may have to contend with wet weather in addition to all the other pressures of an F1 season finale.
Since we first took a look at the weather for the Brazilian Grand Prix the forecasts have changed quite a bit more than usual. In recent days several weather forecasts have increased their predictions for wet weather tomorrow.
The Brazilian Meteorological Office warns of “possible thunderstorms” tomorrow. Local forecaster ClimaTempo agrees with the prediction of rain.
According to Accuweather Sao Paulo will see thunderstorms from 3-4pm – the race is due to start at 3pm local time.
This diagram on Autosport shows the expected rainfall in the area in the hours around the Grand Prix. It suggests up to 16mm of rain within a six-hour time window.
How could rain affect the race? Ferrari has generally been slower than McLaren in wet conditions. In both heavy wet conditions and in conditions where rain is falling on a dry track, we have seen McLaren perform better at Monte-Carlo, Silverstone, Spa-Francorchamps and Monza this year.
However on a track moving from damp to dry the Ferrari has been quicker. At least, that has been the case when the Ferrari in question is in Raikkonen’s hands – an oft-cited criticism of Massa is that wet weather racing is not one of his strengths.
But wet weather wouldn’t necessarily be bad news for him. Unpredictable conditions increase the likelihood of problems for Lewis Hamilton – which Massa needs if he is going to win the championship tomorrow. And whatever happens, Massa will have the benefit of starting at the front with a clear track – especially if the race begins behind the safety car.
The 2003 and 1996 Brazilian Grands Prix started and finished in heavy wet weather – the 2003 event had to be stopped early after several crashes. The 2004 and 1991 races saw light showers during otherwise dry encounters. Rain fell in the late stages of the 2001 race, and the 1993 event was interrupted by a massive downpour.
Please post any other links or observations on the weather for tomorrow’s critical race below.
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Greenmoon55 said on 2nd November 2008, 0:57
Massa is quicker in Monte-Carlo this year though he didn’t win there. Ferrari is slower in other circuits in rain.
yorricksfriend said on 2nd November 2008, 2:59
@ motion, Trulli drives for Toyota not Renault
DMW said on 2nd November 2008, 5:20
Note, wing is not the only aspect of set up. McLaren’s S2 disadvantage is likely down to a “more wet,” i.e., soft-in-roll, set-up. A surfeit of fuel, and a mechanical grip compromise, with a car equal to the Ferrari on same fuel, means Ron has done his sums. But Ron is prone to too-cute race decisions (Hockenheim gave me a permanent ulcer)
Massa is going for the win. So he took a strategy with a clear path to victory against equal competition—light fuel, run away, hope the chasers trip in their pursuit. But this strategy does not account for rain, SC periods, or getting stuck behind the ultimate Trulli Train.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 2nd November 2008, 12:43
With four and a quarter hours to the race start it is dry at the circuit but rain clouds are moving in as expected.
D Winn said on 2nd November 2008, 13:43
Another link showing 90-100% rain
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Hourly.aspx?chart=Precipitation&location=BRXX0232&day=
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 2nd November 2008, 13:46
Interlagos circuit location
Predicted rainfall movement (click ‘Animacao’ to see rain movement)
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 2nd November 2008, 14:04
According to Autosport very light rain is falling on the circuit.
Alex'P said on 2nd November 2008, 14:51
Looking like rain is a sure thing… I called in sick to stay up and watch this one. It’s looking like a thriller!
Eddie Irvine said on 2nd November 2008, 15:16
I found this in a site http://www.msfree.gr/showbrazil.php
it’s live from brazil
Can anyone understand from this if it’s raining?
Filipe said on 2nd November 2008, 15:31
Eddie it´s raining at Interlagos now very lightly, but the clouds suggests that it’s probably gonna increase.
Oliver said on 2nd November 2008, 15:52
Rain isn’t good news for anyone, it only further increases the tension.
Andrew said on 2nd November 2008, 15:54
Oliver, I disagree.
Rain from the start is interesting as it ups the skill level required to win and removes some of the differences between cars.
Random rain showers and or safety cars are what is bad because it means the race could be decided by chance.
Filipe said on 2nd November 2008, 15:54
The rain seems to have stoped right now.