Australian GP: thoughts on the start
28th March 2009, 18:03 by Keith Collantine 67 Comments »
Can Jenson Button convert pole position into victory?
With a new team on the front row and some fast cars at the back of the grid the 2009 F1 season looks set to get off to a thrilling start at Melbourne tomorrow.
Will we see a first-corner pile-up? Will the KERS drivers have an advantage at the start? How many drivers will lose their front wings? When wil lthey stop for fuel?
Here’s my take on how the Australian Grand Prix will unfold.
The start
There are a few things to keep an eye on at the start:
Collisions
The first corner at Melbourne tends to funnel the cars together and there is a high potential for incidents. On top of that, the tight turn three which follows is often a scene of more collisions. Last year Jenson Button, Sebastian Vettel, Mark Webber, Giancarlo Fisichella and Anthony Davidson were all eliminated on lap one.
This year we have the added complication of the extra-large front wings, which several drivers have noted are extremely vulnerable to being knocked off.
KERS
There has been a lot of discussion about whether drivers are allowed to use KERS at the start of the race. I’m not aware of any regulations preventing drivers from using it – as I understand they can to go to the grid with a fully-charged KERS and they can use it the instant the lights go out.
That could hand an advantage off the startline to the drivers who have it this weekend, which are both Ferraris, both McLarens, both Renaults, and Nick Heidfeld’s BMW.
Clean side
As ever the drivers who get to start from the clean side of the grid will have an advantage.
At Melbourne the racing line runs across the odd-numbered side of the grid, which is good news for Jenson Button, Sebastian Vettel, Nico Rosberg et. al.
Australian GP grid and race weights
Lewis Hamilton and the Toyotas
Timo Glock and Jarno Trulli have been sent to the back of the grid after qualifying in the top ten. Although they’ve had to modify their rear wings to comply with the regulations, expect them to still be very quick, and make rapid progress through the field.
This is especially tough on Glock, one of the stars of qualifying, beating one-lap master Trulli despite carrying four extra laps’ worth of fuel.
Keep an eye on Lewis Hamilton, too. The MP4-24 is well off the pace this weekend but it looks as though he’s on an aggressive fuel strategy (see below).
Toyota drivers lose qualifying positions
Pit stop predictions
The official starting weights of the cars has been published. Given that each car has to weigh a minimum of 605kg, and a lap of Mellbourne uses approximately 2.5kg of fuel, we can predict which lap each car will make its first pit stop on:
Robert Kubica 18
Felipe Massa 19
Sebastien Vettel 20
Kimi Raikkonen 20
Lewis Hamilton 20
Nico Rosberg 20
Mark Webber 22
Jarno Trulli 22
Jenson Button 23
Sebastien Bourdais 23
Rubens Barrichello 24
Timo Glock 26
Sebastien Buemi 28
Fernando Alonso 30
Adrian Sutil 31
Kazuki Nakajima 32
Giancarlo Fisichella 33
Nick Heidfeld 34
Heikki Kovalainen 34
Nelson Piquet 35
Having originally qualified 11th (before being promoted to ninth by the Toyotas) Nick Heidfeld is the highest driver on the grid to have free choice of fuel load. He looks set to be one of the last drivers to stop for fuel and is well-placed to take advantage of a safety car period, which are frequent occurences in Melbourne.
But make no mistake – this race looks set to be a Brawn GP rout, with shades of McLaren’s dominance in 1998 at the same track. They’ve locked out the front row of the grid and done it with a fat slug of fuel in the tanks. Their rivals’ best hopes is that they run into reliability problems, or that Vettel can pick off Barrichello on the run to the first corner.
Your thoughts
I asked on Twitter what people’s expectations of the race were and here are some of the responses I received:
#moitio Do you think the drivers are going to pour into turn 1 as fast as possible? I think they’re going to take it carefully
#JayBob80 Kimi to feature, Rubans and JB should dominate if cars are reliable. Both red bull teams look strong
#FrankSta Brawn to the top!! Hooray!!! But how long is going to last jenson’s and ruben’s excellent team mate relationship?
#keirdre tomorrow: Button to romp away with the race, only to suffer a heartbreaking failure near the end, and Barrichello to win.
#alliemims thoughts for the race: hamilton, kovalainen, and alonso don’t even show up. they’ll be playing golf instead.
#MatStace my expextations for tomorrow, rusty drivers, wide front wings = lots of missing noses at turns 1 & 3 on lap 1
How do you think the Australian Grand Prix will unfold? Leave a comment below and don’t forget to join us here on F1 Fanatic for the Australian Grand Prix live blog from one hour before the start of the race.
Read more
- Australian GP grid and race weights
- Toyota drivers lose qualifying positions
- Jenson Button leads Brawn GP 1-2 (Australian Grand Prix qualifying)
- McLaren are slow – and unreliable too
- 2009 Australian Grand Prix live blogs
Timo Glock, Toyota, Melbourne, 2009
John H said on 28th March 2009, 18:27
I’ve got this feeling that Vettel is going to be challenging Button into the first corner, and there could be possible contact. I think I had a dream about it during my post-quali nap because I can picture it quite clearly!
ed said on 28th March 2009, 18:27
Hey Keith,
I’ve got a feeling the KERS equipped cars won’t gain much advantage off the line. Possibly once at speed someone might attempt the “push to pass” but unless they have a good racing line they’ll get blocked at the KERS will be wasted for the rest of the lap.
From the back, I think the toyotas will make up a few places, and continue to cut through the pack during the race. Hamilton might join them for a while, but I can see him mixing with the force india cars for most of the race.
Rubens and Button will probably stay 1st and 2nd.
Someone is bound to end up in the gravel, and take out someone elses front wing in the process!
Keith Collantine said on 28th March 2009, 23:11
It seems to me the drivers with KERS are using it most as they come out of slow corners, so based on that I suppose using it at the start would be ideal? But we’ll know very soon…
Wesley said on 28th March 2009, 18:41
Three front wings destroyed in the first turn.
I think Button will run away with the win but,I hope to see Vettel give fight for the #2 spot.He will have to take Rubens at the first turn to have any chance though,I don’t think anyone can catch the Brawns once they are off and running.
Internet said on 28th March 2009, 18:41
Button has never been good under pressure and tomorrow will show.
pSynrg said on 28th March 2009, 20:45
Please list me at least 3 examples of Button crumbling under pressure.
Thanks.
Keith Collantine said on 28th March 2009, 23:11
Yeah it’s not a trait that springs to mind when I think of Button’s characteristics.
sumedh said on 29th March 2009, 2:23
Just rewind back to last time Button had pole position. 2006 Australian GP. He made a mess off the start line; and couldn’t keep people behind him at all.
Striay said on 28th March 2009, 18:43
I have a feeling something is going to happen with Button, Barichello and Vettel at the start. dunno gut feeling lol! I also think Kubica is going to make a few places as he is quiet light compared to the others.
Toby Thwaites 93 said on 28th March 2009, 23:37
Agreed, well i hope so
Aaron said on 28th March 2009, 18:46
I personally think one of the BrawnGP cars will win it. Who knows which one but one of them has to. I’m hoping it will be Barichello but as I’m from Britain part of me hopes Hamilton finishes in a reasonable position.
I’m really looking forward to this race. Hopefully I’ll get up in time, I failed to get up for the Qualification; good old Sky+
Keith Collantine said on 28th March 2009, 23:13
Shame Brawn GP don’t have a British driver you could support. Wait a minute…
GuyC said on 28th March 2009, 18:49
Surely the KERS will be no advantage on the start line, as the cars have enough difficulty putting the ‘standard’ power down on the track without wheel spinning when lights go green, so cant imagine the KERS boost will be of any advantage.
John H said on 28th March 2009, 19:53
I thought that too initially, but with slicks they will have more grip off the start and hence maybe the KERS will be able to be used from about 100kph or something similar.
ceedas said on 28th March 2009, 18:49
I’m looking forward to seeing how the supersoft tyres hold up. They seemed to be pretty useless after a handful of laps today, so I imagine everyone will be having a short stint at some point.
At the front, Barrichello to win followed by Button. Maybe the other way round…
Striay said on 28th March 2009, 18:50
Keith.. does that mean that if there is a safety car the “slowing down system” the FIA designed is coming into practice?
P.S. I think Hamilton is going to crash being so far back and trying to climb up the field!
Keith Collantine said on 28th March 2009, 23:14
With Hamilton you tend to get extremes – he’ll either do well like at Monza last year, or we’ll get a Magny-Cours style disaster…
Mussolini's Pet Cat said on 28th March 2009, 18:56
Internet, you know nothing. These guys thrive on pressure.
Loki said on 28th March 2009, 18:57
I’m thinking there’s too much to go wrong into the first corner that I fear that a Brawn 1-2 isn’t on the cards. If they get away clean after the first corner, then it should be plain sailing, reliability pending.
Melbourne’s traditionally high attrition, and perfect for those who qualified lower to stay out of trouble and pick up some points from those trying to squeeze too much out at the front.
Our topsy turvey grid may be even more topsy turvy podium tomorrow. We shall just have to see – can’t wait!!
Keith Collantine said on 28th March 2009, 23:15
Wonder if the Brawn GP drivers have a pact like Hakkinen and Coulthard did?
Damon said on 28th March 2009, 19:06
I don’t expect much trouble with the start due to KERS, as it is normal that some have a better start then others. And one should realize that what makes the difference at the start is, in fact, traction/grip.
F1 cars have an overwhelming amount of power and acceleration – more than they’ve got grip to handle it and to be able to use their power effectively. So adding those 80bhp won’t help them at all, as it would only produce wheelspin.
I guess drivers can use KERS when they exceed about 150km/h. But then they’ve got the critical period of the start behind them and it’ll be save to use some extra power.
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But collisions and damaged front wings are certainly a big threat and we can sure expect a lot of this happening…
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All I want to see tomorrow is an exctinig race full of overtaking and action.
What I don’t want to see is 2 white cars dominating the field and cruising to victory in a boring race.
matt said on 28th March 2009, 20:24
I’m happy to see Jenson storm into the lead as long as there’s plenty of other action behind him. I just want him to have one good race- make up for the last 2 years.
Damon said on 28th March 2009, 19:14
GUYS!!!!!
I’ve just realized that we change time tomorrow!!
We change the time forward, so the race will be at 7:00 of the current time.
I’m sure many fans in Europe will tune in an hour too late for the race.
Hammad said on 28th March 2009, 19:17
I’m hoping that if it has to be a brawn drive through, it’ll be a barrichello win. Otherwise… count on the ferrari’s to be quick off the start, and vettel to get past at least one of the brawns.
John Spencer said on 28th March 2009, 19:19
Only a fool would make a confident prediction about the start tomorrow. But here goes anyway:
The six cars behind Jenson and Rubens are lighter and two have KERS. There’s going to be a bit of ‘coming together’ at the front of the pack in Turn 1.
Of course, the chances of collision are far higher further back in the grid, and the fact that the last four cars are lighter than the 8 ahead of them also does not bode well for a collision-free Lap 1.
I would bet that 4 cars don’t make it to Lap 2.
Mind you, I have never won a bet on F1.