How Lewis Hamilton can win the race – for Toyota (Bahrain GP pre-race analysis)
Starting from the clean side with KERS fitted, Lewis Hamilton is one to watch
The fuel loads have confirmed the suspicions that the Toyotas ran with lower fuel loads than their rivals to take control of the first row of the grid.
On row two we find the two drivers most likely to become our title protagonists: race winners Sebastian Vettel and Jenson Button. Which one of these is most likely to overcome the Toyotas to win? And what can the KERS-powered Lewis Hamilton do from fifth?
The start
The little-used Bahrain circuit is noted for being dirty off-line, which could be a problem for those starting in the even-numbered grid slots. As it happens, this was not the case last year, when Felipe Massa moved up from second into the lead. But still I would expect those on the cleaner side (Trulli, Vettel, Lewis Hamilton, etc…) to have an advantage.
This present Vettel with a strong chance of taking Timo Glock for second, leaving him with one Toyota to pass instead of two.
Button, meanwhile, could be looking over his shoulder. The Brawn has not been the quickest car off the line this year (remember Button’s first-to-fourth at Sepang), he starts from the dirty side at Bahrain and the fifth placed McLaren of Lewis Hamilton is ready to pounce.
Hamilton has the advantage of being the highest-starting KERS-equipped car. We’ve seen some impressive KERS-boosted starts this year, and the long run into turn one followed by another blast to turn four offers Hamilton a major chance to make up places. Just as long as he doesn’t cream the McLaren into the back of a competitor as he did last year.
A scenario where Hamilton gets past Button and Vettel at the start could offer Toyota their best chance of winning this race. The MP4/24 may not be too quick, but as we’ve seen earlier this year a car with a KERS button is especially hard to pass.
Further back, look to Fernando Alonso and the Ferraris for more KERS fireworks.
Read more: Bahrain Grand Prix grid
The strategy
At China we saw some drivers fuelling lightly to get their super-soft tyre stint out of the way as quickly as possible (at least, they would have done had it not rained). The durability of the tyre seems to be less of a concern here, and the teams are more likely to use it than the medium compound.
On the flip side, the medium tyre may prove difficult to get speed out of. Button has had particular problems generating heat in tyres this year, so it’s starting to look like the odds are stacked against him.
Once again we have a driver in a fast car starting way out of position. Mark Webber starts way down in 18th after his altercation with Adrian Sutil in qualifying (for which Sutil has now been punished). How much progress can he make from there with his light fuel load?
Read more: Sebastian Vettel carrying more fuel than Toyotas (Bahrain GP fuel and pit stops)
The Sri Lankan said on 26th April 2009, 0:14
Considering the lap time penalty of carrying extra fuel is around 0.035s per kg, on a fueladjusted grid, i rekon Trulli would still have been on pole away from vettel. still, i think toyota should deploy some team tactics to keep the hard charger Vettel, Hamilton and alonso at bay. ideally i think it would be best if jarno kept everyone back while glock gets away since he really need to punch in the fasteset times as he is pitting i before Truilli and Vettel. this way Jarno could also open the door for Vettel being attacked by Hamilton or Jensen or maybe even alonso.
m0tion said on 26th April 2009, 0:30
Hamilton is so slow in S2 those behind have no choice but to be aggressive with him. Webber has at least taken the aggressive path and should be good to watch. Trulli for non kers and Alonso for kers are my two fastest off the line predictions followed closely by barrichello and hamilton who are overdue fast starts.
antonyob said on 26th April 2009, 1:11
stop press……fat losers slag off Hamilton confirming that even his walking down the street is some corporate show off pre planned lie/cheat.
eh? bleeding obvious? no original point? sod it? i’ll say it anyway.
please…… carry on.
copydude said on 26th April 2009, 1:15
I think it’s very tough for Webber, starting that far back. He probably will overtake a bundle of heavier guys, only to come back out in slow traffic and have it all to do again.
Heidfeld has got the odd result from the same disadvantage by opting for heavy plodding. It’s an unenviable way to start a race from any point of view.
I think this will be a very tough race for any of those lower down the order to break into the points.
Aaron said on 26th April 2009, 2:53
look for a top 5 for webber today, I know he is near last but…watch out for his progress 4 sure.
I am even willing to go as far to say say he may evne end up on podium..
Vettel will walk this one in
Toyata will fall back
Hamilton will ditch it
Alonso will be strong and fade
Vettel
Baracello
Button
Webber
Alonso
Arun Srini said on 26th April 2009, 6:42
Does anyone have any video showing adrian blocking webber?
rahim said on 26th April 2009, 7:40
Kimi was really outpacing massa in qualifyiing, and he was in a safe position. but the team told him to do go out once more as he didnt want to go, and finally ferrari ruined his q3 with no tyres left….poor kimi
kimster46 said on 26th April 2009, 8:14
i am bit confused about the title of this article …”How Lewis Hamilton can win the race – for Toyota”
damn , i am no good at english , can some body explain whats the message :)
Patrickl said on 26th April 2009, 8:29
Keith explains this in his analysis:
If Hamilton gets behind the Toyota’s after the start and then holds everybody up, he would help Toyota to a possible win.
Snoopy said on 26th April 2009, 8:24
Yes, Kimi did not want to go but team forced him to go no matter what Kimi was thinking himself. I was reading about this from MTV3 finnish F1 site and example JJ Lehto was uppset for that situation….but well thats motorsport. and i still cant wait to see how Alonso and Hamilton will go threw first corner..
I will put my money to Vettel, Glock will be second. About 3th place there will be war. hamilton will not be on podium and both ferraris will be in points.
LukeS said on 26th April 2009, 11:37
Becken thanks for posting the Hamilton, Glock, Piquet GP2 race, I had not seen that very entertaining. Great prep for todays race. Can’t wait.
BaKano said on 26th April 2009, 12:10
I haven’t llok for a video, but I remember what happened and can tell you.
Sutil whas on his out-lap, behind Alonso. In the straight before the main-straight, he slowed down on the racing line to put distance between him and Alonso, not noticing Webber has coming from behind on a fast lap. Webber moved to the right to vertake, but Sutil did likewise, so Webber had to go again to the left and overtook on braking to the last corner. This was the first blocking, but then, Sutil overtook Webber on the main straight (prooving that the Force India is fast on the accellerator), when Webber was going for his second flying lap, so actually, it ruined Webber’s last 2 attempts.
I don’t think they penalised him for overtaking, because then Sutil was on his flying lap, but the truth is that Sutil was slowing down on the racing line going into the last corner, so this is enough for considering a blocking manouver