Rain or shine, Webber has win in his sights (German Grand Prix start analysis)

11th July 2009, 21:16 by Keith Collantine 55 Comments »

Mark Webber is perfectly placed to win the German Grand Prix

Mark Webber is perfectly placed to win the German Grand Prix

Mark Webber has a precious opportunity to convert his first pole position into his first win – thanks in part to Sebastian Vettel failing to complete an extra lap in qualifying.

With four KERS cars in the top nine positions and rain threatening, we could be in for an exciting race tomorrow. Let’s take a look at how it may pan out.

The start

Brawn and Red Bull have locked out the top four places on the grid. But it’s the two drivers who are trailing their team mates on the front row – Mark Webber and Rubens Barrichello.

Barrichello has made two particularly poor starts this year – at Melbourne and Istanbul – and will need to get off the line smartly to be sure of beating his team mate into turn one.

Starting from row two, Jenson Button and Sebastian Vettel could find themselves falling prey to either of the McLarens on row three, both of which have KERS. Lewis Hamilton made a particularly good start here two years ago – before he was hit by one of the BMWs – can he repeat that this year ad make a nuisance of himself for the championship leaders?

With the similarly KERS-powered Ferraris eighth and ninth, the run into the tight first corner (complete with a devilish new bump thanks to a tunnel built under the track) could be quite spectacular.

Although the Nürburgring doesn’t suffer from the clean/dirty side of the grid phenomenon as much as less-used tracks to, it can still make a difference. In this afternoon’s GP2 race Lucas di Grassi, who started third on the grid, was able to overtake second-placed Roldan Rodriguez at the start. That’s potentially good news for the likes of Button (third) and Hamilton (fifth).

Of course all this presumes a dry start to the race – if the expected rain comes we could see a much more unpredictable start. Rain is expected to reach the circuit around lunch time tomorrow, but rather than the deluge of 2007 it is expected to be more like the occasional showers we saw today. The KERS cars will have less of an advantage on a slippery track.

The strategy

The fuel weights published after qualifying revealed both Red Bull drivers are on the same fuel load. But this seems not to have been intentional – Vettel has claimed he intended to do one more lap in qualifying – reducing his fuel load further and potentially moving him up the grid – but ran out of time. That may have cost him dear.

Lewis Hamilton’s light fuel load increases the chance of him making some trouble for Sebastian Vettel at the start. And the Ferrari duo will be especially keen to clear Adrian Sutil’s heavily-fuelled Force India. The German driver successfully out-qualified the two F60s despite having a heavier fuel load, thanks in part to Ferrari running out of fresh super-soft tyres in the final part of qualifying.

Whatever strategies the teams may have in mind are likely to go out the window if we get the kind of mixed weather conditions we saw in the middle part of qualifying. One crucial thing we cannot tell is which drivers have gone for a compromise set-up on their cars which might help them in wet weather.

But however the weather pans out we look likely to have a more entertaining race tomorrow than last time out. Who do you think will win?

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Read more: 2009 F1 season | Articles in full | F1 drivers (active) | F1 races | Heikki Kovalainen | Jenson Button | Lewis Hamilton | Mark Webber | Rubens Barrichello | Sebastian Vettel