Hamilton the biggest threat to Red Bull? (Hungarian Grand Prix pre-race analysis)
Lewis Hamilton is the danger man for Red Bull
We have a curious grid for the Hungarian Grand Prix and an even more curious mixture of strategies. Pole sitter Fernando Alonso is ultra-light, but the two cars best placed to take advantage of that – the Red Bulls – are in turn threatened by Lewis Hamilton’s McLaren.
And that’s before we add in Jenson Button’s heavier-fuelled Brawn a few rows back. It all adds up to a potentially intriguing race at the Hungaroring.
The start
The one thing everyone knows about the Hungaroring is how tough it is to overtake – and that makes the start absolutely critical.
Last year Felipe Massa put himself in a position to win the race with a terrific start which catapulted him past Lewis Hamilton.
At the time we all thought he was unlucky to lose the race in the dying laps – but that was before we knew what awaited him on his return to the track. Thankfully, the news coming from Hungary about his condition seems to be positive.
Hamilton will be the first driver to keep an eye on at the start. From fifth on the grid at the Nurburgring his KERS boost shot him into the lead by the first corner before that unfortunate, race-ruining contact with Mark Webber. He starts fourth this weekend and, despite the disadvantage of starting on the dirty side of the track, that precious boost can be relied on the give him an advantage of around 14m over his rivals.
This will presumably move the Red Bulls – second and third – to look for some way they can keep the McLaren back. But would Webber rather help Sebastian Vettel box Hamilton in, or find a way of picking off his team mate at the first corner?
The biggest threat to Alonso at the start is more likely to be Hamilton than Vettel. At today’s Formula Master and GP2 support races the pole sitter had an unchallenged run down to the first corner and the driver who started second struggled to keep rivals behind.
The other KERS-boosted cars are sixth (Heikki Kovalainen) and seventh (Kimi Raikkonen) which does not bode well for Jenson Button’s hopes of making much progress from eighth.
The strategy
Alonso has played down his hopes of winning the race but anyone who saw his performance in the closing stages at the Nurburgring will know he’s a genuine contender. Especially if Hamilton end up between him and the chasing Red Bulls.
But having opted for an ultra-light strategy – almost certainly committing himself to a three-stop strategy – he will need to streak away from the field at the start to have any hope of making it work. As we’ve seen already this year – notably Barrichello at Catalunya and Vettel at Istanbul – three-stoppers are high-risk affairs.
The battle between the Red Bull drivers will be utterly fascinating – especially as the one-lap-lighter Webber has a good chance of out-dragging Vettel to the first corner.
Button will stop around four laps later than Vettel and will be hoping he can stay somewhere in range of the Red Bull. A nightmare scenario for him would be Alonso coming out right in front of him after his early first stop. Given how much the field spreads out over the opening laps of the race, I’d say there’s a very good chance of that happening.
A final driver to keep an eye on is Toro Rosso’s Sebastien Buemi. In recent races we’ve seen the highest-qualifying drivers from Q2 make hay with heavy fuel loads in the race. Buemi has shown some promised in the revised STR4 this weekend and could be on course for his first points since Shanghai.
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Bendana said on 26th July 2009, 10:11
It’s gonna have to be a seriously good start from Button to stay in the points. but as TOm says, who knows what will happen in turn one should be a hell of a race. If Button cant pull out a miracle though, then I’m hoping for my backup – Webber!
Red Andy said on 26th July 2009, 10:15
The pit lane at the Hungaroring is a bit shorter than that at either Barcelona or Istanbul, which makes a three-stop strategy a little more realistic. Still a tall order for Fernando though, the race will probably go to the Red Bulls with Hamilton on the podium. Poor Jense must have forgotten what it’s like to be up there now….
IDR said on 26th July 2009, 10:23
I think Fernando Alonso is having the same strategy than for his first victory here in Hungary GP 2003. I think he was fueled for 13 laps for the first stint also.
Lets see what happens in the first lap and if the Renault can repeat the fastest laps they were able to do in a row during last GP.
In any case the best scenario for Alonso should be to achieve a podium finish, never a win.
Tom Watson said on 26th July 2009, 10:26
While Hamilton appears the immediate threat and most likely is, let us not forget rosberg in fifth. Fuel adjusted he was 3rd fastest after the two RBR cars and recently he has found the knack of grabbing significant points from what appears to be no-where.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 26th July 2009, 10:38
Rosberg’s under threat from two KERS cars right behind him, though – Kovalainen and Raikkonen.
Patrickl said on 26th July 2009, 10:31
I think Button is doing the clever thing. He starts with a high fuel load. This way it doesn’t matter that he sits there behind a slower KERS car. He’s doing slower laps anyway since he’s carrying so much fuel.
At the end of his stint (when the other cars ahead of him peel off) he should be faster and be able to make up time so he can get ahead of them after his stop.
If he had gone for his proper spot at P6 or something, he would be jumped by Raikkonen and Kovalainen at the start and he would be losing time. Now he sits behind them already and he doesn’t lose a second.
I’d say Ross Brawn finally cracked the proper way to deal with KERS cars jumping you at the start.
Of course their problem is that their car is realisticly only 6th fastest. So he won’t be scoring much points anyway.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 26th July 2009, 11:06
Another dimension is temperature – apparently it’s getting hotter at the track this morning, Button was saying on Twitter he’s optimistic about the conditions:
http://twitter.com/The_Real_JB/statuses/2851284353
adz2193 said on 26th July 2009, 11:31
Jenson should actually be in a good position, he’s clear of KERS cars behind him and he’s heavier than all of the cars in front. If Kovalainen and Raikkonen make progress off the start and hold up the likes of Rosberg we could see a repeat of poor Felipe’s result in Germany.
Bendana said on 26th July 2009, 12:30
Realistically, I think the Brawns are gonna have to just play for SOME points today and look forward to the next race. They had to spend so much time in Q3 looking over the suspension of Button’s car that they couldnt really get in a pure fast lap.
manatcna said on 27th July 2009, 1:36
It’s quite funny reading these after the result is known :)