We dont know how well the drivers are going to do next year. we can keep saying ” oh hams gonna do better than button” and then suddenly 11 months later you see them both neck in neck.

By what measure do you include Kubica in that list? He had average 2007 season, a good 2008 season and average 2009.

About Vettel, we havent seen him win a race in which his car was miles faster than opposition.

There are only two drivers that stand out form the crowd in F1, Lewis and Alonso.

Raikkonen was probably McLaren’s first choice but as they couldn’t agree a deal they had to start looking at other drivers. While I think that a case could be made that other drivers on the market would be better for McLaren than Button, apart from Raikkonen I don’t think any of the other options are significantly better.

Also I think I remember Whitmarsh saying recently that McLaren wanted to have their 2010 driver line-up confirmed sooner rather than later as if they waited they ran the risk that the better drivers would already be signed by other teams.

But in recent years McLaren have also been seen to be harder on their tyres than Ferrari, one of the side affects of being able to warm the tyres up quickly.

While I think Hamilton will be able to beat Button if they are teammates, the issue of managing the tyres with heavy cars due to no refuelling next season should be an advantage for Button.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/8363892.stm

Teams may give cost cutting as a reason for offering lower salaries to drivers, but the top drivers are always likely to command big sums if the teams have the ability to pay them.

It could even be argued that if the cost cutting measures mean that a top team spends say £100m less per season but their income is still the same they would be tempted to spend more on getting the best possible drivers. That has been the problem with trying to limit spending in one particular area, the teams will just divert their resources to wherever else they think they can make a difference.

So, McLaren will most likely be HAM and BUT. Which for McLaren could be a very good thing, of which I am sure McLaren is aware. As several have pointed out here, and as I said in the Forum the other day, with no refueling next season the cars are going to be a handful for a good portion of the race. Button’s “kinder” driving style could well pick up some wins or at least valuable Constructor points when Hamilton’s raw speed won’t quite turn the trick.

And I do think Button will go to McLaren. After the slap in the face Ross Brawn gave hime by saying in effect Button wasn’t worth a raise, if I were Button I’d have been packed a gone already. Ross Brawn just did make a lot of money from the goodwill of both Honda and Button, and Barrichello for that matter, and now seems to forget not only on which side his bread was buttered but also who did the buttering for him. I’d think it poetic justice if Ross lost at least one thing out of all this: the #1–it belongs to Button and he will take it with him to McLaren.

Someone mentioned that two British drivers in a British team / two German drivers in a German team would make the sport seem “nationalistic”. Seems to work for football, why NOT for F1? Back in the day, through the 20s, 30s, 40s, Grand Prix racing was quite nationalistic, at least in terms of support, if not driver loyalty. And GP not only survived that, but grew quite healty–healthy enough that a whole new series was initiated to showcase it-Formula 1.

I think it will be very good to watch HAM/BUT slug it out with MAS/ALO and WEB/VET over at RBRacing. Should make an interesting season.

I think if the contracts on offer to Button from Mercedes and McLaren were both the same he would accept the Mercedes one as Brawn is his current home so he knows the team and how it works whereas McLaren is Hamilton’s home, and although both teams will say their drivers are treated equally I think it will always be easier for the established driver in a team rather than the newcomer.

However some reports are saying that McLaren are offering a three year deal and Mercedes only a one year deal.

Even though Button may have the confidence in himself that he can win back to back championships he must realise that the title fight will be closer next year, and as hard as it is to make a prediction in November for the next season, (just think which teams would have been the favourites for 2009 this time last year), there could easily be four teams fighting closely for the championship.

So unless Button did win back to back titles, he is at his strongest position in negotiations right now, and if he signed with Mercedes for one year depending on what happens next season he may be unable to then get a seat at a top team for 2011. So even if you ignore the money on offer and the Hamilton factor at McLaren a three year deal with McLaren could be better in the long term than a one year Mercedes contract.

I’m also questioning the supposed gap between Mercedes and McLaren. The Briitsh articles on the subject have discreetly painted Mercedes as being unsympathetic to JB, while at the same time McLaren are all sugar and spice and all things nice towards him. I just saw the ByronF1 Twitter feed that blatantly mis-quotes a quote from Ross Brawn. And if you look at the timing of it, the articles that claim Button is a certainty for McLaren only came when Mercedes bought out Brawn and left McLaren, amking McLaren a team wholly-owned by the British.

The British press want Button to go to McLaren and seem to think that if they can convince everyone that the space separating McLaren from Mercedes is vast enough, they can make it happen.

Pre the Mercedes buyout, did Brawn as was have the money to develop a 2010 car? Presumably Button also knows the answer to that.