Low chance of rain in Spain

F1’s run of rain-affected races is likely to end this weekend in Barcelona. Although it has been raining in the Montmelo area recently, rain is expected to leave the region before the Grand Prix.

At present the Spanish Meteorological Office gives a low chance of rain falling on race day or Saturday – 45%.

However there is a more significant chance of rain disrupting Friday practice, with a 70% chance of rainfall at the track in four days’ time.

Air temperature will be in the high teens reaching 20C by Sunday.

Wind could be a factor, particularly on Saturday when gusts of up to 6m/s are expected. The cars are especially sensitive to wind at the fast Campsa corner.

You can keep an eye on the conditions at the circuit in the run-up to the race weekend using the rainfall radar below.

Update 5/4/2010: The Spanish MET office has revised its forecast for Sunday, increasing the probability of rainfall to 55%.

Circuit de Catalunya location

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26 comments on Low chance of rain in Spain

  1. Donal said on 3rd May 2010, 9:43

    Hi all
    Just to let you know that the weather here in Barcelona is wet! There were spots of rain all weekend and right now it is bucketing down. Forecast for the weekend is uncertain but right now they are saying it will rain on race day…

    Donal

  2. Prisoner Monkeys said on 3rd May 2010, 9:51

    This is going to be the first real test of Formula 1, I think. The past three races have been broken up by rain, but this will be the first dry race now that everyone is familiar wih the rules.

    Shame it’s at Barcelona.

  3. Stephen Hopkinson said on 3rd May 2010, 9:53

    That’s a fairly misleading interpretation of the probabilities: 45% is a moderately high chance of rain.

    • Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 3rd May 2010, 10:15

      That’s a 45% chance of rain falling at some point during a 24-hour period. The race isn’t on all day long, so I’d be inclined to under-estimate the chance that any rain that does fall might affect the race.

      • BasCB said on 3rd May 2010, 13:18

        But the track would be slippery if the rain would come on Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning befor the race.

      • macahan said on 3rd May 2010, 16:42

        45% chance means 100% chance of rain in 45% of the area. So somewhere in the region there will be rain just matter where and when.

        • Hey said on 3rd May 2010, 18:43

          It just doesn’t mate. I can’t really correct you without teaching you fundamental maths.

  4. sato113 said on 3rd May 2010, 9:59

    45% isn’t a ‘low’ chance to me keith! :) when was the last wet gp here i wonder? 1996?

  5. James_mc said on 3rd May 2010, 10:09

    “The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain”

    Well races at Catalunya are generally not very noteworthy and ordinary, or “plain” for want of a better word. Therefore there shall be rain. :-)

    • sato113 said on 3rd May 2010, 10:32

      lol. the annual phrase- ‘the rain in spain falls mainly on F1 test days’ is much more accurate!

  6. VXR said on 3rd May 2010, 12:17

    I just hope that some of it manages to fall at some time in qualifying or sometime during the race. Otherwise it’ll be Bahrain, but without the heat. It looks like it’ll be a very cool (as in temperature) GP no matter what. Which should help those that can’t look after their tyres.

    • sato113 said on 3rd May 2010, 14:51

      no, cool temperatures will make tyre degradation worse, (lower temp.= less grip= more tyre sliding). this means drivers who can’t look after their tyres are in even worse trouble. ;)

      • VXR said on 3rd May 2010, 15:03

        It can go either way. The window where the tyres are at their optimum is very narrow. The left front tyre will take a hammering no matter what.

  7. Tom said on 3rd May 2010, 12:33

    I can’t remember a wet race in Barcelona, there’s always a nice wheater in Barcelona in may.

  8. 130r said on 3rd May 2010, 19:07

    Keith, I’d say 45% is a pretty high chance of rain

  9. Icthyes said on 3rd May 2010, 19:47

    As much as Catalunya needs rain to spice things up, I hope it’s dry. It’d be good to see where the teams are roughly at (remembering of course that the nature of the circuit might amplify certain advantages and disadvantages in the cars), and how drivers in the same teams compare (again, plus or minus circuit preference) and we’ve been spoiled a bit recently; a dry, normal race might stop our expectations from going way too high!

  10. wasiF1 said on 4th May 2010, 2:08

    It seems like rain always shows us great racing this season & seasons before this then why not.

  11. Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 4th May 2010, 9:49

    The Spanish MET office has revised its forecast for Sunday. It now says the probability of rainfall is 55%:

    http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/localidades/montmelo-08402

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