Can anyone catch Red Bull?
Webber has gone from eighth to first in just two races
After six races the battle for the 2010 championship has taken shape.
With both Red Bull drivers sharing the lead of the drivers’ championship, the question now is whether anyone can get on terms with the flying RB6s.
Webber vs Vettel
Mark Webber didn’t have a great start to the championship. Poor qualifying in Bahrain limited his points-scoring opportunities, then at his home race he crashed into Lewis Hamilton.
In Sepang he out-qualified Sebastian Vettel, only for his team mate to barge past at the start and take the win. Four races in, he was eighth in the championship.
Now after consecutive lights-to-flag wins in Spain and Monaco he’s jointly leading the championship with Vettel.
If the world championship is going to be contested exclusively between the two Red Bull drivers from this point on it looks like being a tight battle. As well as being tied on points the balance of power in qualifying stands at 3-3.
The others are at least still in touch – there are eight different drivers who could be leading the championship if they win the next round (see graph below). This time last year Jenson Button left Monaco knowing he could fail to score at Istanbul and still lead the title race.
The development race
If any of the other teams are to stand a chance of beating Red Bull they have to start by building a car that’s as quick as the RB6.
What Ferrari and Mclaren need is a performance upgrade the likes of which Red Bull themselves produced at Silverstone last year to bring them on terms with Brawn.
Rival designers will surely be thinking more seriously about adopting Adrian Newey’s novel pull-rod rear suspension arrangement used on the RB6 and its predecessor. This reduces the amount of bodywork at the rear of the car, allowing the diffuser and rear wing to be used more effectively.
But it’s unlikely a change of that magnitude could be made during the course of the championship. The same cannot be said for other teams’ developments, such as the F-duct, which Red Bull is considering introducing its version of at the next race.
However the RB6 does seem to have two weaknesses. While last year’s car thrived in wet weather conditions, in the rain at Shanghai Vettel and Webber found it worked its tyres too hard.
Its other failing is unreliability – a problem which has affected Vettel more than it has Webber.
Which tracks favour which cars?
If Red Bull continue to exhibit the kind of performance advantage they had at Barcelona on similar circuits, then the next race at Istanbul should be easy pickings for them.
Two races after that F1 heads to the revised Silverstone circuit, whose new ultra-fast sweep at Abbey could have been made for the RB6.
Tracks like Montreal often throw up surprise results. Ferrari could go well there thanks to their strong engine and F-duct giving them excellent straight-line speed, and Bridgestone bringing a softer mix of tyres which the F10 seems to work best on.
McLaren have tended to show good race pace – Lewis Hamilton would not have been able to split the Red Bulls at Catalunya in the early stages otherwise – but need to improve their qualifying performance.
As for Mercedes, the next race should prove a useful measure of whether their long-wheelbase solution has helped them get closer to the front runners.
Of course it could bring them just far enough along to start taking points off Ferrari and McLaren, which would suit Red Bull just fine…
How do you see the rest of the championship unfolding? Will Red Bull put their reliability problems behind them and dominate the rest of the championship? Can Ferrari or McLaren stop them? Have your say in the comments.
Read more: Red Bull duo take joint championship lead – points in full after Monaco
2010 F1 drivers' championship (click to enlarge)
Tristan Rayner | PureF1.com said on 19th May 2010, 10:04
Ah to have a crystal ball… one thing I noted was that Kubica was hopeful the Renault would be strong in Montreal and he might sneak a podium. If that is the case, you’d have to assume the Red Bull would be strong there too.
GeeMac said on 19th May 2010, 10:07
The short answer to this question has to be …no. The RB6 is just so inherently quick on all types of circuits that I don’t see them being caught. Even if the rest of the “contenders” manage to improve throughout the season, Red Bull are hardly going to take their foot off the gas.
The RB6 is only going to get better and better and better. And as that happens, Webber and Vettel are only going to get more and more and more confident.
TommyB said on 19th May 2010, 14:37
Short answer has to be… yes.
We asked the same with Brawn last year and they got caught by Red Bull at Silverstone.
Then we said would Red Bull ever be caught after they won Silverstone and Nurburgring and yes they were caught by McLaren.
Title fight is by no means over.
Untitled258 said on 19th May 2010, 14:58
It is over.
Brawn had no money to develop the car last year, the car they finished with wasn’t fair off the car which that started with.
Red Bull have one of the world biggest drinks companies/richest people in the world funding them, so its unlikely they will drop development because of funding, there supposed to be bringing another big aero upgrade to Turkey.
Mclaren won’t improve as much as they did last year, the reason there performance gain was so great is because they had such a dog in the first place, its a lot easier to make a slow car fast, then it is to make a fast car, faster.
I preferred red bull when they where crap :(
nik said on 20th May 2010, 12:23
on that note – does anybody know how big the RB budget is? I have the impression that they aren’t spending nearly as much as Ferrari and McLaren are.
RB have a foundation in place now that will not only make it hard to catch them this year, but, barring any major regulation change, for the next 2-3 season.
They seem to be the best at being able to update the car during the season. With a lot of the midfield teams and sometimes the top teams it is more a process of trial and error. RB bring updates and just go faster …
Calum said on 21st May 2010, 18:52
I didn’t really mind when they sucked, they are just too far ahead, it would have been so much better if the 3 top teams were a bit closer together in terms of performance,
GeeMac said on 19th May 2010, 15:01
True, but Brawn simply didn’t have the revenue to fight back in the face of Red Bull’s charge in the second half of the 2009 season.
In addition to that, Red Bull have a far more significant performance advantage than Brawn had at the same stage last year and they have more than enough cash to fend off the challenges of Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes. I don’t see them being caught.
A, said on 19th May 2010, 17:12
Plus the other teams don’t have a double diffuser type upgrade available to them. That was the major advantage Brawn had over the RB5 at the start of last year and once RB got it on their car the Brawn was no match for it.
Jarred Walmsley said on 19th May 2010, 20:24
Exactly, the Brawn last year was the fastest car simply because of the double diffuser, now thats not to say that the performance was only because of the Double Diffuser as they still performed well once the other top teams had it still just not at the very top.
Whereas this year the RB6 has no specific advantage point it quite simply is the best all round car and it should erode the Ferrari and McLaren’s top speed advantage once it gets the F-Duct on it.
macahan said on 20th May 2010, 0:15
And consider that this years “double diffuser” is the f-duct and McLaren already got it and so does Ferrari and yet the RedBull is faster. RedBull get a f-duct as been indicated might be ready for Turkey it would only make them even more out of touch by the other teams. As is there is a good 0.5 sec the others need to claw in on Red Bull to really bring the fight to them. It’s possible for sure assuming Red Bull fails to move forward for a few races. They get f-duct they might become uncatchable on tracks like Turkey, Canada, Silverstone, Spa and Monza. Don’t see Europe (Valencia, Hungary, Singapore, Abu Dhabi to be tracks where F-duct performance will be of importance and there Redbull and Renault looks to have possibilities to be very strong. The only circuits I think F-duct might be of very high advantage is Monza and Canada possibly Korea where the later is very similar to Malaysia where Red Bull dominated.
Mercedes pick things up they will start stealing points of Ferrari and McLaren. Even if they don’t do it then Ferrari and McLaren for sure got a though job a head of them but if any team can do it it would be those two but I believe Mercedes will pickup enough to start to fight with them which as Keith say will be to Red Bulls advantage.
At this point to me it looks like the only thing that really would prevent Red Bull from championship is themselves (reliability) but with Ferrari and McLaren being their own enemies (engine reliability, strategy errors, tire heat up issues, rim/tire failure, left component) I’d say they have as much if not more to loose then Red Bull. It’s F1 and still early days and many races left so much can still happen.
By my figuring their failures have lost them more points then what Red Bull lost to their reliability problems.
Hamilton 18pts Monaco, 5-10pts Malaysia = Total 23-28pts
Button 6-8pts Monaco, 6-10pts Malaysia, 2pts spain (6sec longer pitstop the Schumacher) = total 14-20pts
Alonso 15-25pts Monaco, 10-15pts Malaysia, 15-18 pts China = total 40-58 pts
Massa 10-15pts Malaysia, 6-8pts China, 2-4pts Spain = total 18-27 pts
Red Bull :
Vettel 6 pts Bahrain, 25pts Australia, 10pts China, 3 pts Spain total : 44pts
Webber 16 pts Australia, 2-4pts Bahrain : 18-20pts
Alonso have actually lost the most followed by Vettel. But Ferrari as a team lost the most followed by Red Bull.
Funny thing the one team of the three that “faultered” the least and lost the least is laying 3rd as team in standings today and the two of the drivers that lost the most is 2nd and 3rd.
So why is it again everyone is saying Red Bulls been dodged by Reliability issues etc etc? The numbers above shows the top 3 teams lost about as much to screwups and failures. I guess the only reason is that Red Bull been sooo fast in Qualy and should be far a head of the others and almost all their failures been because of reliability whilst the others been a mix of reliability and human errors (strategy, pit stop, mechanics and even driver accident) where Red Bulls main problem been fairly consistent mechanical reliability.
Dipak T said on 19th May 2010, 21:40
I disagree. Brawn had a couple of tenths tops over the rest of the field initially, and they couldnt develop the car.
Red Bull have an entire second, and they have significant updates to come.
Rob said on 20th May 2010, 0:52
Turn 9 at Barcelona Red Bull were taking flat in 6th gear while everyone else dropped back to 5th gear and backed of the throttle exiting the same corner 20kph slower. In tight and twisty Monaco Webber was four tenths faster than the opposition and continued to reel off fastest laps until he was instructed to look after the car. Red Bull will add an F duct next race and get closer to the same straight line speeds as the rest of the field so they will pull further away.
Teams will relaise soon that they can’t catch up and so they will focus on their 2011 car. If they are smart they’ll take a close look at the RB5 with a simple diffuser and the RB6 front end and make it a closer race next year.
Tom said on 19th May 2010, 10:08
When RB is able to solve the brake problems and the reliability issues it will be hard for the rest of the field to catch up…sadly!
bigbadderboom said on 20th May 2010, 9:50
Thats the real issue for me as well Tom, RB could be their own biggest competition. Consistancy is what will win this championship, can RB get deliver? Probably but if they get pushed those problems with reliability may come to the surface again.
KateDerby said on 19th May 2010, 10:22
The rise and rise of Mark Webber.
Interesting though to see the spread of points between
the top 8 drivers after
Round 1 was 25 points (obviously) and
that the spread of points after Round 6 is just 22 points.
Journeyer said on 19th May 2010, 10:58
I would’ve thought that the Top 8 spread in Round 1 was 21 points (25-4).
Mike said on 19th May 2010, 13:30
The current top 8′s points in round one, Kubica was on 0.
KateDerby said on 19th May 2010, 13:39
I was looking at the top 8 drivers as we stand as per Keith’s graph (that includes Kubica who had no points after Round 1)… perhaps that wasn’t clear.
TommyB said on 19th May 2010, 14:38
That chart shows what a great championship we are having doesn’t it! :D
US_Peter said on 19th May 2010, 20:39
Interesting that Vettel, Alonso, and Button each have 1 race without any points and round out the top 4 behind Webber. Webber has points in every race.
sumedh said on 19th May 2010, 10:26
Other teams can’t catch Red Bull.
You cannot find 2 tracks as opposite in character as Barcelona and Monaco. If Red Bull got 2 1-2s there, they can get 2 1-2s anywhere.
The biggest threat for Red Bull is its own unreliability.
Browny said on 19th May 2010, 10:55
I doubt Red Bull will dominate Monza though, the lack of engine power and unreliable brakes will cost them dearly.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 19th May 2010, 10:59
Brakes is an interesting points – they appeared to be marginal on cooling at Monaco which makes you wonder how they’ll get on at Montreal and Singapore.
BasCB said on 19th May 2010, 11:10
But McLaren obviously had problems as well as other teams having to mount extra large brake ducts.
As Monaco does not have any straights, there probably is not much cooling of the brakes.
But it will be something for us to look forward to.
alejandro said on 19th May 2010, 11:35
i seem to recall that last year quite a few of the teams pushing for thicker/larger brake discs for this season… only to have it poo-pooed by Williams… surely this would’ve helped the brakes issue?
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 19th May 2010, 11:37
I don’t remember that. Got a link?
steph said on 19th May 2010, 11:50
I remember that too. It was mentioned on the BBC F1 Forum last year. I can’t find a link though Keith
Kate said on 19th May 2010, 12:42
Its mentioned here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/andrewbenson/2009/08/costs_and_politics_to_decide_t.html
alejandro said on 19th May 2010, 13:02
Yep, that’s the one. Thnx Kate.. So Keith? Was Williams being spiteful because everyone else wanted to drop KERS except for them?
sumedh said on 19th May 2010, 10:27
Interestingly, you haven’t added Michael Schumacher’s points in the graph.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 19th May 2010, 10:44
He’s further behind Hamilton than Hamilton is behind Webber. That may change, of course, but for the purposes of this article I wanted to concentrate on the drivers in the top eight.
flatbeat said on 19th May 2010, 10:32
Ferrari are rolling out a big upgrade for Turkey. With alonso’s driving, new f-duct, and new aero they might be able to match redbull or at least get closer. However it looks like redbull are also upgrading for turkey, etc.
Its hard to say, but it has made for some great races so far and im super excited for the rest of the season. Especially spa, wonder if alonso/massa will drive eau rouge 1 handed :D :D :D
sumedh said on 19th May 2010, 10:44
Oh no, not at all.
Eau Rouge is a corner where you can go faster if you have more downforce.
The reason Eau Rouge is special is because, drivers can’t see the top of the corner, thus they might don’t push enough. If they don’t push enough, they get lesser speed, thus lesser downforce and thus they suffer on the long straight following it as well.
On the other hand, if a driver pushes more, he has higher speed, thus higher downforce and thus can gain a lot of speed on the long straight.
This is why, Spa is a driver’s circuit. Also, it explains although the average lap speeds at Monza and Spa are pretty much same, but downforce levels are vastly different.
Journeyer said on 19th May 2010, 11:00
But isn’t Eau Rouge easy flat now? And given that downforce levels have changed little over the decade, I’d think that’s still true today.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 19th May 2010, 11:11
Yeah I was wondering this myself. Although with full fuel tanks maybe it won’t be easy flat?
Scribe said on 19th May 2010, 14:55
Eau rouge might not be easy flat at the beggining of the races this year, ditto 130R, maybe abbey, copse, turn 1 at hockenheim whose name escapes my memory.
Probably just downshift though, probably no lift.
James_mc said on 19th May 2010, 11:47
Is that not partially due to the fact that “flat” isn’t as “flat” as it used to be due to restrictions on the engines?
mateuss said on 19th May 2010, 14:25
But even if it is relatively easy flat, it is still a tight corner which makes cars with little downforce slide and scrub off speed.
flatbeat said on 19th May 2010, 11:05
Isnt eau rogue the right hander at the bottom of the straight and raidilion (spelling) the left hander at the top?
I wouldnt assume that they would be stalling out the rear wing over all of that section. But i think they will be on it atleast until the turn-in to eau rogue.
Icthyes said on 19th May 2010, 14:25
Eau Rouge is the left-hand kink at the bottom. Radillon is the kink at the top.
Soumya Banerjee said on 19th May 2010, 11:39
the only thing that can stop red bull are red bull themselves….shame that the season is becoming a tad too predictable and over-reliant on qualifying…i had hoped for a hamilton-alonso battle as they are the 2 best drivers on the grid. It seems a good driver in a great car(Webber in his RB6) can cream great drivers in good cars(Alonso in his F10 or Hammy in his MP4-25)
Todfod said on 19th May 2010, 11:51
I agree. Although I think Vettel and Webber are two really solid drivers, they still are not in the Alonso & Hamilton league. The RB6 is as dominant as the Brawn was last year.
I think the only thing that can screw up RB chances are driver mistakes and a few reliability issues. But for either Alonso or Hamilton to capitalise on those mistakes they have to consistently finish on the podium just behind the RBs. Its gonna be interesting to see whether Webber and Vettel crack under pressure though.. as none of them have led a championship before.
Soumya Banerjee said on 19th May 2010, 15:50
Probably RB6 is even more dominant. And Brawn wasnt that well funded as Red Bull so their development pace was not very good.
I heard somewhere that an ex-Brawn GP engineer agreed that the extent of RB6′s domination is more than that of the BGP001. Cant find the link to the story though.
sato113 said on 19th May 2010, 10:51
keith could you also insert a contructors graph below the drivers one? you gotta have both!
HG said on 19th May 2010, 10:53
are they catch-a-bull? well it would be nice, we don’t want a pre-dict-a-bull championship. I’m sorry don’t hold me respons-a-bull, these are terri-a-bull :)
HounslowBusGarage said on 19th May 2010, 11:10
Despic-a-bull, HG :)
Soumya Banerjee said on 19th May 2010, 11:40
LOL…you have spoken my heart out completely
Chalky said on 19th May 2010, 11:40
are they reli-a-bull? :D
BreezyRacer said on 19th May 2010, 21:19
They’re indefeat-abull ;-)
This year is incred-abull!
Their lead is sustain-abull ..
we could go on and on
Pink Peril said on 20th May 2010, 4:31
These sorts of puns are indefense-abull :p
J said on 19th May 2010, 10:56
The Mclarens were able to do a comeback last year, they can still do it this year. I think Webber is going to take the championship though.
J said on 19th May 2010, 11:03
Keith, whose picture is next to my initial? I don’t know this person
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 19th May 2010, 11:12
It will be the Gravatar that’s associated with your email address at gravatar.com
See here: Get a picture next to your name
Soumya Banerjee said on 19th May 2010, 11:43
Keith isnt the championship getting too boring? The races are much better than last year esp shanghai and melbourne…but there seems to be few battles at the head of the field…i would rather have boring races and an interesting championship(2007 ok some races were gr8 but not the majority) than a few above-average races and a championship based absolutely on saturdays
Metrium said on 19th May 2010, 22:36
Looks like a young Bill Gates to me!
BasCB said on 19th May 2010, 11:18
I hope it will be a tough fight with Alonso evidently driving on the limits of the car and team to make it WDC in his first year. Makes me remember of some of Michael Schumachers drives in 96/97.
Lewis and Jenson charging on to take points where they can, especially in the wet.
Kubica will probably not get further than some podiums to take away points from all other. Michael might go for a win this year, if the car allows him, Rosberg might have a good chance, if Mercedes improve the car and he hits the sweet spot on setup.
And i hope Felipe Massa to show some magic at Turkey, even though the hard tyres might spoil that.
These things combined make it Red Bulls to give away their advantage throug team mistakes and technical glitches, or maybe the odd driver error first from a Vettel proving he is not nr. 2 and then from Webber if he gets behind.
Don Mateo said on 19th May 2010, 11:26
Brawn looked uncatchable at the beginning of last year, by the end of the season their advantage had all but disappeared and if their rivals hadn’t missed several good opportunities it could have ended a lot closer than it did.
Red Bull’s reliability also hasn’t helped them – they’d probably be running away with it if not for that, as it is they’ve only just got the championship lead, despite all their promise. If they have more reliability issues then they might not hang onto it.
I think that they’ll probably remain the team to beat, I wouldn’t rule out them being caught.
BasCB said on 19th May 2010, 11:32
First Brawn did not have as big an advantage as RBR has now.
Further Brawn did not have money to spare, so he focused a lot of engergy towards this years car early, as they were clearly ahead so they took a risk with that.
Red Bull have a lot more to spend and Newey to do something reasonable with the money, so it will not be to hard to keep the improvements coming all year.
For RBR this is their season, and i think they would not mind too much if they had to compromise next year a bit for clinching both titles now.
alejandro said on 19th May 2010, 11:30
I think this should be the year Red Bull take a championship, and as much as I think Vettel is the better driver of the two, I would like Mark to take a WDC and be able to retire a happy and fulfilled man. Vettel will surely have time to prove himself later on. Don’t think Webber will ever have a chance like this again….
BreezyRacer said on 19th May 2010, 21:14
When Webber wins this year what in the world makes you think he would retire? The man is just getting where he’s always wanted to be ..
alejandro said on 19th May 2010, 23:57
oh, sure… wouldn’t want Mark to go just yet… but just saying, hopefully he won’t eventually retire like say, DC… who had it all to win, but just didn’t cut it.
macahan said on 20th May 2010, 0:25
I agree with this. It would be really cool if Vettel won and became the youngest WDC to add to his other list of youngest titles. But it’s also prime time for Mark to finally get a WDC after 8 years in F1. He is not getting younger and few drivers seems to last much more then 8-10 yrs in F1. Well exception Rubens which just don’t seem to want to go away (like a bad penny just keeps turning up), 17 yrs is pretty impressive but don’t think he will be much longer end of this year or next I would guess.
Lore said on 21st May 2010, 3:20
Go Red Bull!!
im a Mclaren fan, but love all the teams. as an aussie ive loved to watch the rise of Webber, hes always been quick, faster than his team mates by a long shot until Vettel arrived, and look now hes raised his game to beat even the much lauded young superstar. thats a class act.
best chance webber had was in 2005 but Theissen wanted his own team and i think by that stage BMW was keen to create a good reason to ditch williams and i thinkk BMW sabotaged that championship, not to mention they had probably the worst auto start software on the grid…
so i think its great, Red Bull as a team show more team spirit than any other, it has to be said these are nice guys, play cleanly, are really clever and telented. Webber and Vettel are both great guys and awesome racers who deserve the opportunity, and Newey aside from his genius has always been a gentle and human face in F1.
richly deserved!!!
BasCB said on 21st May 2010, 14:27
James Allen thinks the same about him ( http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2010/05/mark-webber-success-better-late-than-never/ ).
And Frank Williams has allready stated, that they misjudged Mark Webber when they dropped him.
Looks like everybody is changing his mind on Webber now, just like a lot of people were doing last year (and at the beginning of this year) with Button.
I certainly hope Mark makes it a fight not soon to forget, he is the only even fooded competitor to Vettel and the only one who can beat him without needing any major failures or team mistakes.
Enigma said on 24th May 2010, 22:09
So many people changed their mind about Webber in just two races!
Renzo said on 19th May 2010, 11:57
To understand where red bulls speed is coming out from is not that easy. Their race pace is almost the same of Ferrari and McLaren but in a single lap they seem to be uncatchable.
We have to consider what differences the rb6 has to the other contenders: they are the only team (of the top teams) to have pullrod suspension and to have a unique exhaust sistem that feeds the double diffuser.
Another element to analize is that their contender is a natural evolution of last years car while McLaren and Ferrari rebuilt completely their cars and this maybe could take time to the teams understand properly their potential and where areas of the cars can be improved.
If the speed is coming from theese elements it will be almost impossible to catch them because it will mean that the other teams have to rebuild completely their contenders.
The only thing that McLaren, Ferrari and even Mercedes can do is to come out with something revolutonary (like Mercedes did with the rollbar structure) that redbull cannot copy.
Let’s wait and see if they get out with a b-spec car as was written a few months a go:
http://en.espnf1.com/ferrari/motorsport/story/7644.html
Soumya Banerjee said on 19th May 2010, 15:52
What about the active suspension system?