Vettel’s problems hand Webber a precious chance

2011 Spanish GP pre-race analysis

Mark Webber, Red Bull, Barcelona, 2011

Mark Webber, Red Bull, Barcelona, 2011

For the first time this year Sebastian Vettel isn’t on pole position.

Can Mark Webber capitalise on a rare chance to put one over his team mate?

And will Vettel be left stranded at the start without his KERS power boost?

The start

Does Sebastian Vettel really think his KERS will be fixed in time for the start of the race?

Or were his words in the press conference that he’s “sure” it will be sorted actually a coded plea to his team to make sure he’s not left vulnerable at the start of the race.

If he has to make a KERS-less start he could be in big trouble. Mark Webber lost six places at the start in Malaysia without his.

And at 440m, this is one of the longest runs to the first corner. No wonder Lewis Hamilton, third on the grid, fancies his chances:

“Third on the grid is actually a perfect position ?ǣ because, if you get a good start, you can slipstream the guys in front. My aim is to be P1 by turn one! It doesn?t normally go that way, but as long as I don?t go backwards I?ll be happy.”

Vettel has the added disadvantage of starting off-line: not as great a problem as it was for Webber in Istanbul, but nonetheless not ideal.

Michael Schumacher potentially has the same problem as Vettel following his KERS problems in qualifying.

Interestingly, even McLaren haven’t been immune to glitches with their system this weekend. Martin Whitmarsh said they hadn’t been able to use their KERS to its full because it wasn’t up to its “optimal operating temperature”.

Strategy

The new hard tyre introduced by Pirelli appears to be lasting very well but it is around two seconds per lap slower than the soft.

Using it any earlier than necessary in the race would be a significant gamble so teams are likely to try to run as many sets of soft tyres as possible.

Here are how many new sets of soft tyres each of the drivers have left for the race:

Driver Sets left
Fernando Alonso, Felipe Massa, Nico Rosberg, Vitaly Petrov, Pastor Maldonado, Sergio Perez, Jaime Alguersuari 0
Sebastian Vettel, Mark Webber, Lewis Hamilton, Jenson Button, Michael Schumacher, Kamui Kobayashi, Sebastien Buemi, Heikki Kovalainen, Jarno Trulli, Narain Karthikeyan, Vitantonio Liuzzi, Timo Glock, Jerome D’Ambrosio 1
Adrian Sutil, Paul di Resta 2
Rubens Barrichello, Nick Heidfeld 3

As usual the top ten drivers will have to start on the same tyres they qualified on. That’s potentially a problem for Hamilton, who flat-spotted a set during Q3.

Schumacher will have a free choice of tyres having not set a time in Q3.

Nick Heidfeld hasn’t used any of his soft tyres and has the chance to “do a Webber” – mimicking his run from 18th to third in Shanghai, aided by a large stock of fresh tyres.

With drivers wanting to spend as little time on the hard tyre as possible, strategy is likely to be centred around postponing the stop as late as they can.

They may be willing to tolerate a greater degree of drop-off in performance on the soft tyre than usual as the hard tyres are so much slower.

The long DRS zone which begins at the start/finish line should make overtaking much easier than it has been in the past at the Circuit de Catalunya.

That leaves us anticipating another unpredictable race – with the tantalising prospect of seeing the championship leader in the thick of the action for once.

Who do you think will win the Spanish Grand Prix? How do you think the race will unfold?

Have your say in the comments.

2011 Spanish Grand Prix

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93 comments on Vettel’s problems hand Webber a precious chance

  1. Manuel said on 21st May 2011, 20:00

    Nick Heidfeld 4 set of soft tyres? Aren’t they all have 3 set of soft tyres available for quali and race?

    • wasiF1 (@wasif1) said on 22nd May 2011, 2:46

      Yeah I think you are right. Accoding to the rules before each qualifying starts each driver is given 3 soft & 3 hard tyres both for qualifying & race.

      • unnnooocc said on 22nd May 2011, 7:46

        Heidfeld has 3, Barichello has 2 and Kobayashi has 1 the erst are correct I think

    • Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 22nd May 2011, 8:53

      Sorry about this: it’s the first time I’ve compiled this data and I overlooked the clause about having to give a set of tyres back after third practice. Won’t make that mistake again.

      Anyway, I’ve corrected the table above: Heidfeld has three sets, Kobayashi one. Barrichello does have three – as far as I’m aware he only ran hards in qualifying.

      • Lagavulin said on 22nd May 2011, 9:37

        reviewin q2 i’m afraid kobayashi has used a new set for half a lap in the last run. it’s not easy to distinguish new/used tires, as well as silver/yellow markings: it’s unuseful the long yellow circle when the wheel is rotating. the upper white marking used in china is much better, cos it’s a mark that prime has not in that position.
        keith why not to write something abt??

  2. Lagavulin said on 21st May 2011, 20:04

    not completely accurate keith: heidfeld has got 3 soft (not 4)and 3 harder, all new.
    And according to Key’s, Kobayashi has got one set of new soft tyres:

    We did just a single run on soft tyres in Q1. Then we did a quick lap on used tyres in Q2 and a single lap on new tyres at the end of the session. Unfortunately Sergio was just a bit shy of the top ten, while Kamui ended up being stuck behind a slower car for half a lap, so he unfortunately lost his time and was unable to progress from P14, which was set on old tyres

  3. Stefan Kelly (@brawngp) said on 21st May 2011, 20:05

    Nick might as well start on the hard, do 1 lap and be super fast the rest of the race with all those softs

    • BBT (@bbt) said on 21st May 2011, 20:20

      Except the hards take about 3 laps to come in, from a grid start that is.

    • nik (@nik) said on 21st May 2011, 21:37

      nice plan, it would also get him out of the traffic and in theory into the perfect spot (~20s behind the field) to make up that gap between the start and the first set of stops for everybody else. He would need to be 1s a lap faster than the rest of the field, which is very achievable on the soft vs hard from what we have seen in quali

      • Mike said on 21st May 2011, 21:55

        But it means he automatically has to gain 20 seconds on everyone else, effectively giving them a free pit stop. I think he’s better of using the time to pass back markers.

        • George (@george) said on 21st May 2011, 23:07

          The point is minimizing the time spent on the hard tyre. Since he’s the only person that (possibly) has enough soft tyres to last the race distance, he can cut out losing 2s per lap making up the rest of the laps on hard tyres.

          If other people do 12 laps on the hard tyre he’s already made up a pit stop at that speed, plus he doesn’t get stuck behind backmarkers at the beginning.

          • Maybe Nick should try staying on the softs until the last 3 laps (Kamui Kobayashi deployed this tactic successfully a few times last year)? The last few laps are, if any, the ones most likely to feature a lack of challenger and if the “windows” suggest a different gap is better, it’s easier to calculate it at the end of the race than to guess exactly how big to make the gap at the beginning.

          • BasCB (@bascb) said on 22nd May 2011, 11:50

            I am not that sure about that. Why not pass some backmarkers from the start with KERS, then hold on for a while and stop based on watching lap times. Then he can optimize the 3 sets of softs after the Virgins and HRT cars get left behind, slotting in in front of them after his pitstop and still having good running to optimize stints on the softs.
            Do not forget his first serious targets will be the FI cars who have a lot of softs left as well.

    • Magnificent Geoffrey (@magnificent-geoffrey) said on 22nd May 2011, 0:51

      Exactly what I was thinking. What if there was a first lap SC as well? He could be very exciting to watch!

    • wigster (@wigster) said on 22nd May 2011, 10:00

      That would mean spending over 20 laps on each set of soft tyres though, and i think its very unlikely they’ll last that long, so near the end hed probably have to stop for hards again, meaning 4 stops.

      Where as someone who starts with their 3 sets if softs could stay on each set until they start to go off, then hope they can hang on to a single hard set until the finish. So they’d only have 3 stops, maximise time on fast rubber and minimise time on slow.

  4. Fixy (@fixy) said on 21st May 2011, 20:06

    If Vettel and Hamilton have faulty a KERS Alonso can make up many positions at the start. Both McLarens and both Red Bulls are the only of the top teams to have an extra set of softs, plus Schumacher who has seldomly shone.

  5. Icthyes (@icthyes) said on 21st May 2011, 20:15

    I think starting on the hards will be the right way to go. It will minimise the time spent on it and due to it being slow anyone on them should come out in clean air after their first stop!

    • BBT (@bbt) said on 21st May 2011, 20:28

      Do you think you would lose too many places of the start with such a long run to the first corner? A start on hards even if perfect could lose you 3 – 4 places.

      • Frans said on 21st May 2011, 20:51

        Not if you’re dead last and you’re on a Renault. For any other guys… I believe they all better to extract the soft as long as possible. Even with the huge degradation when the soft falling of the cliff it is still produce the same, if not better, lap times compared to the new hard.

        OTOH, since they start with a full tank, probably the difference between the soft and the hard wouldn’t be as much compared when running light… so I don’t really know. Maybe it is still a good idea starting with the hard.

        • Icthyes (@icthyes) said on 21st May 2011, 21:21

          The key is weight-induced degradation. By not using the soft tyres when the car is heaviest and instead taking the penalty on the worst tyres you can maximise your running on the better tyre, which is what Webber did in China.

          True, it costs you quite a few places off the start. But you’re going so much slower they’d get you anyway and you’d lose time being overtaken.

          • DVC said on 21st May 2011, 21:43

            What you say is true. The only thing that would concern me if I were Schumacher say, is that a stack of people easily able to pass me at the start increases the chance of an accident in the opening stint quite a lot.

          • unnnooocc said on 22nd May 2011, 7:55

            Also true, but its better not to count on a crash at teh start (given as Hamilton proved last time not everything is decided in the first corner).

            If I where Quick Nick Heidfeld I would start on Hards definately and then hopefully go SOFT SOFT SOFT for the rest. The Renault is nice to its tyres and they shouold be able to work out approx (just like rbrwith Webber) how many laps those 3 sets will last for.

            It doesn’t matter if Heidfeld goes backwards at the start and finishes his stint last as every will have to do that at some stage and he’ll be on softs then.

            So basically he does his hards, goes to softs ASAP, undercuts as many as possible. POTENTIAL PROBLEM: Passing drivers on softs. SOLUTION: They are probably thinking of giong to hards to get that out of the weight way so it shouldn’t be too bad. STOP: New softs… repeat STOP: New softs… FINISH: Hopefully top 5 probably top 10

          • BasCB (@bascb) said on 22nd May 2011, 11:54

            I don’t even think it will cost as many places from the start. If Heidfeld can get past the Virgins, HRTs and possibly Trulli he has only Heikki to worry about really as he will be a lot faster than the cars behind even on his hards.

            Then he can build a gap to them to stop and stay ahead of these cars and optimize running in free air to get optimized use of the softs.

  6. Jarred Walmsley (@jarred-walmsley) said on 21st May 2011, 20:26

    Just thought i’d let you know, power is misspelt as pwoer in the first section, apart from that great article. I’m thrilled that Webber has managed to get on pole, hopefully he can make a good KERS assisted start and have a good lead by the first corner

  7. BBT (@bbt) said on 21st May 2011, 20:26

    I reckon Schumacher get in the top five with a perfect race.

  8. VXR said on 21st May 2011, 20:48

    The race is 66 laps long and the soft tyres are not lasting more than a few laps passed ten. So exactly how little time can someone spend on one set of hard tyres if their soft tyre quota isn’t looking too rosey? It’s a strategists nightmare!

    If I were on the hard tyre with three sets of new soft tyres available (Heidfeld). It’s probable that I would now know already exactly which lap I would be changing onto my first set of soft tyres.

    I can see someone definitely doing a Webber.

    • Sam said on 22nd May 2011, 8:14

      we heard this “doing a webber” last race in relation to kobayashi, but the key ingredient missing is that you need a Redbull to go from 18th to 3rd.

      It’ll be too easy to go onto the softs too soon and end up needing an extra hard stint at the end or too late and end up doing too many laps on the hards and being left with a half used set of softs

  9. TFLB said on 21st May 2011, 20:52

    I think Petrov could throw a spanner in the works for the top 5. If he had matched his sector 2 time from Q2 in Q3, he would have only been 1 tenth off 3rd-4th-5th. The pace is clearly there, and the Renaults tend to get good starts.

    • BasCB (@bascb) said on 21st May 2011, 20:53

      Thats true, Renault and Petrov have done some very good starts. Would be a bit of a downer for Alonso to get stuck behind him again, wouldn’t it!

    • Palle (@palle) said on 21st May 2011, 22:00

      yes, it was warm and the distance to first corner was long – suddenly Heidfeld was P2 and Petrov had gained a lot as well. But Heidfeld needs to consider using his hards from the green light and change to softs when they can see that he can get through the rest with them.
      But I think the qualifying gets more and more boring. Only a few of them really race it at qualifying. Q3 was over even before tension had really been build up. How about give those who make it to Q3 an extra set of softs?

  10. BasCB (@bascb) said on 21st May 2011, 20:52

    Great idea for the list of who has what tyres left Keith.

    And are we certain Vettel really had a glitch with the KERS? Can it not be the team asked him not to use it just to be on the safe side with temperatures etc.?

    • S.J.M (@sjm) said on 21st May 2011, 21:23

      It wasnt working from Q1 till the end of Qualy. whether it works tomorrow i dont know. But no KERs on a long start to the corner and the dirty side doesnt bode well, esspecially in a car thats not got the quickest straightline speed.

    • AndrewTanner (@andrewtanner) said on 21st May 2011, 22:33

      Yea, nice new addition.

      Really hope that Barrichello can make the best of it and give the FW33 a good run-out.

  11. Gaston (@golarrazabal) said on 21st May 2011, 21:13

    Alonso might be super thrilled with his 4th place but I think it was a mistake for Ferrari to use a set of softs on Q1. I think that’ll be costly.

    • lluis said on 21st May 2011, 21:47

      But if they didn’t, they probably wouldn’t have passed to Q2. The McLaren took a great risk also.

    • DVC said on 21st May 2011, 21:48

      Agree. The only person who it wasn’t a mistake to use softs in Q1 for was Kovalinen. He needed them to get to Q2. With Heidfeld not taking part though, everyone else should have backed their ability to beat the 3 newer teams with the harder tyre.

    • SundarF1 (@sundarf1) said on 22nd May 2011, 9:16

      I agree. Heidfeld wasn’t going to set a lap time, and to be honest, the team should’ve kept an eye on Rubens and when they knew it was too late for him to do a lap they should’ve aborted their soft tyre run.
      So two guys out, and four cars nowhere near the pace, only Heikki was a threat. So that meant only Massa needed to do a soft tyre run.

      McLaren ended the session somewhere near the relegation zone. They did the right thing.

      • Solo (@solo) said on 22nd May 2011, 10:59

        The problem is they didn’t knew what Rubens will do.
        And if Massa went for a soft run then Alonso had to respond because Massa would probably do a lot better in the soft than what he did on hard.

  12. AndrewTanner (@andrewtanner) said on 21st May 2011, 22:26

    Really looking forward to this one. I’ll be watching Vettel like a hawk. Tomorrow he has the chance to prove a lot of his critics wrong, especially if his KERS isn’t up to scratch. He also has the opportunity to prove a lot of them right. It will be very telling either way.

    • Palle (@palle) said on 22nd May 2011, 11:29

      Prove what? He was behind both Alonso and Webber last race 2010, but won. He has almost made a perfect start to the season this year. Newey and RBR with Vettel in the car, will be unstopable unless FIA fiddles the rules again. I think they will dominate several more season from now.
      If You mean if he can overtake or not, well You can hardly compare this year’s overtaking abilities with F1 in the past. Look at his past with Torro Rosso and Williams BMW instead if You think he is just a spoiled brat in the best car of the field. Maybe he wouldn’t be the best if all were driving the RB7, but he would still be in top 5 I think.
      No matter what he does, his critics will still critise.

      • AndrewTanner (@andrewtanner) said on 22nd May 2011, 15:09

        I wasn’t criticising Vettel, I like him and I don’t agree with a lot of the criticism he receives. You cannot under-estimate the driver/car combination. That’s a skill like any other.

  13. It’s really starting to get annoying having to read the subtle anti-Webber bias on this site.

    Sure Vettel had a KERS issue but the title reads like that’s the only reason Mark outqualified him. Let’s not forget that last year Webber outqualified Vettel by about 1/10th of a second here. Yesterday it was 2/10ths of a second, even better. Vettel said himself that “I didn’t use KERS in Q2 and Q3, but it’s not right to say I didn’t have KERS and [therefore] Mark got pole – he deserved pole,” — and judging by the amount of footage we saw of Vettel comparing his throttle/braking chart versus Webbers, I don’t think he’s just saying that.

    I think it’s just the word “hands” in particular, like Webber was simply given pole position because Vettel had a problem. How about just: “Webber secures first pole of season” or “Vettel’s run of poles ended by Webber” or you know … anything else.

    • An earlier article I’ve just noticed is titled “Webber beats Vettel to pole position” – that’s exactly right, but then this one has the subtle anti-Webber vibe, what’s the go? Like you just couldn’t help mentioning it and linking the two together.

      • redlight said on 21st May 2011, 22:49

        Vettel was the man to beat, Webber today beat him to take Pole Position. The title ^^ reflects nothing more than that.

      • marcus said on 22nd May 2011, 0:26

        KERS is worth what, 3-5 10ths? Webber beat him by two. So it’s pretty likely that it was Vettels problem that handed him the pole.

        • Is KERS really worth 3-5 tenths of a second? Or did you just parrot that number from some website, which parroted it from a Twitter feed which simply re-stated what the KERS estimate for the Australian GP was?

          • marcusbreese (@marcusbreese) said on 22nd May 2011, 9:18

            Brundle mentioned on BBC that it was worth about 5/10ths, so I ‘parroted’ it from him if you like. I suppose you’ve taken your RBR7 out and tested the difference? Or been chatting to Newey about it? It’s widely considered that KERS is worth that sort of difference, which means that in real terms Webber was at least 0.1s slower. It’s still fantastic that he beat him, and it’s the closest he’s been all season which shows he’s improving, and Vettel could well be in all sorts of trouble on the first lap, but unless they’re running equally functioning cars then we can’t say he’s outqualified Vettel on merit can we.

    • RSWF1 said on 21st May 2011, 23:46

      I can only agree to be fair, maybe Webber didn’t sign Keith’s autograph book. :) I jest

      I am however very glad to see no sour faces at the Qualifying Press conference for once! about freaking time!

    • Mitch said on 22nd May 2011, 1:44

      I agree, I was thinking the same thing. It seems almost every statistic or article I read here is rather anti webber.

      Unlike PF1′s love affair with him.

    • Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 22nd May 2011, 9:00

      It’s really starting to get annoying having to read the subtle anti-Webber bias on this site.

      I’ve got nothing against Webber at all and I’m incredibly disappointed to see so many people apparently think I’ve got it in for him.

      He’s a very good driver, had an excellent season last year, and is a thoroughly pleasant bloke who, unlike many of his peers, usually has something interesting to say.

      But I’m not going to pretend he hasn’t been beaten consistently by Vettel this year. The facts up to this race speak for themselves.

      Webber was having a promising weekend up to this point – he was quickest in both sessions on Friday. But Vettel was only two-tenths slower than him in qualifying without KERS and it doesn’t take a genius to realise Vettel would almost certainly have been faster with KERS.

      Perhaps you wouldn’t have misread my views on Webber if you didn’t invest so much meaning in the headline without apparently having read the article? I did refer to ‘doing a Webber’ as being synonymous for making up 15 places during a race. Hardly a criticism…

      • RSWF1 said on 22nd May 2011, 9:31

        touche’

        I would’ve loved to have seen Webber in the RB7 in his younger days, he even put that Jaguar on the front row!

      • Palle (@palle) said on 22nd May 2011, 11:41

        I rather think that many fans are biased very much FOR Webber – just try to put in a line or two about a balanced attitude towards the Vettel-Webber Turkey incident last year on the RBR fan site – You can reignite a war that way!
        This is also why Vettel is very diplomatic?
        So I think You are following a very good balanced approach, Keith – just keep up the good work.
        But strange that Webber didn’t show joy and happiness over the P1 result.

        • RSWF1 said on 22nd May 2011, 11:54

          Im sure he would’ve looked a lot worse if he were second, he knows you don’t get points for pole, and think he would’ve liked to have beaten Vet on equal terms.But its Long race, not to mention a long run to the first corner! Hopefully an exciting race, but I still want the pole sitter to win! Would like to see Vet get swamped to the first corner, nothing against him I would just like to see him have to fight through the field and Web to have a leisurely drive out front! :)

      • BasCB (@bascb) said on 22nd May 2011, 11:59

        Best thing is, Webber did exactly what we wanted of him and you challenged him to do in the preview. Pip Seb from pole.

        Fact is he did use KERS and Vettel did not, showing it did help Webber. But that is nothing against Webber, rather another worry for RB as they struggle with getting everyting right.

        Great reporting Keith.

    • James G said on 22nd May 2011, 9:06

      I think you’ll find that reality has an anti-Webber bias.

    • Rocky said on 22nd May 2011, 12:04

      I wish people would leave the bias thing alone, no matter how you articulate an article somebody will read something into it, it just becomes annoying to read comments that of bias.
      Keith actually does a great job of remaining neutral and then telling the facts backed up with statistics.

  14. Atticus said on 21st May 2011, 22:56

    I think all of this is really playing to the hands of Webber this weekend. Everybody has some concerns behind him and his biggest is to keep Hamilton behind in the run to the first corner.

    Vettel has a KERS-problem which, if not working, could be deadly at the start. Keith made the point: one of the shortest main straight in Melbourne cost Webbo six places. What could one of the longest – 440 m – mean for Vettel in terms of positions? The dirty side of the grid just adds up to this problem and I bet for a third place for him at the first corner at best – Lewis is going to end up in front of him, that’s for sure.

    Lewis meanwhile has his flat-spotted tyre which is not a problem at the start but it is in the long run. It could cause him to stop earlier forcing him to do more laps on the slower options.

    For Alonso 0.003 seconds could be the difference between a podium finish and a mediocre race in the points: dirty side of the grid. Also he has no new prime left which means (a) an extra stint on the options compared to others, or (b) a shorter prime stint because of the used set. Any of these could hinder his aim of finishing on the podium.

    For Button… Well, there isn’t any concern for him besides the fact that from the quintet he has the least favorable grid position.

    I predict that Hamilton does going to end up P1 overtaking Webber into Turn 1, but the flat-spotted tyre and the Melbourne-like dominance of the Red Bulls will relegate him to a 2nd finish behind Mark. I think Vettel will have problems with his KERS at the start, falling behind and making his way up to a podium finish with Button a close fourth and Alonso a distant fifth.

    • zecks said on 22nd May 2011, 1:20

      i like your logic, but i feel that the renaults will have a part to play tomorrow

      • Atticus said on 22nd May 2011, 10:21

        Well, Petrov has the same issue as Alonso and I don’t think he has the race pace of Ferrari not mentioning Red Bull and McLaren.

        Heidfeld could well play a hugely succesful catch-up with 3 set of new softs (let’s stick to this convention ;)). ‘Doing a Webber’ as Keith put it. Maybe he could make it into the top five, I agree with that. (Despite starting 24th compared to Petrovs’ 6th – this is the difference 3 sets of new softs make.)

    • PieLighter said on 22nd May 2011, 9:36

      You’ve got prime and option the wrong way round. If you replace prime with soft, and option with hard, then your predictions make sense.

  15. Lindsay said on 21st May 2011, 23:00

    The post is titled the way it is because lack of KERS is really the only reason Webber did beat Vettel. Vettel was only two tenths behind Webber without the extra half second that KERS brings.

    Had Webber’s KERS been faulty as well, he would have qualified almost 3 tenths behind Vettel.

    • Lord Ha Ha said on 21st May 2011, 23:52

      Ah Lindsay if not for the wee willie syndrome here abouts you might be onto something. Do you remember the editors rebalancing when Webber’s KERS wasn’t working and Vettel’s was? No? No need to question your recall, it’s fine.

      Webber went easy on a set of softs in Q2 and that would’ve shaken a little wiggly one up even more.

    • TrueGrit said on 22nd May 2011, 0:31

      Lindsay where do you get half a second from? Sure on some tracks but on this one it’s *maybe* 2 tenths a lap. Vettel is P2, and he needs to deal with it, just like last year.

      • David A said on 22nd May 2011, 3:41

        Just like how KERS wasn’t the half a second Webber was losing in the earlier races.

      • Icthyes (@icthyes) said on 22nd May 2011, 11:06

        I don’t know where this half a second figure comes from either. Yes I know Brundle said it but when KERS first came about the number being bandied around was more like 0.3. It’s probably the full half-second at somewhere like Monza or Brazil (high altitudes).

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