How Vettel and Red Bull can win the titles in Japan

2011 Japanese Grand Prix

Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Monza, 2011

He's already got 309 points - he just needs one more

Only one result can stop Sebastian Vettel from winning the drivers’ championship on Sunday.

Red Bull can also claim the teams’ title but whether they do is not entirely in their hands.

Here’s where they need to finish to claim the championships on Sunday.

How Vettel can win the drivers’ championship

This one is easy. The only way Vettel can fail to win the championship on Sunday is if Jenson Button wins the race and Vettel does not finish in the top ten.

Any other result means Vettel will retain his title.

How Red Bull can win the constructors’ championship

Red Bull need get both their cars home in the upper reaches of the points to be able to win the constructors’ title in the Japanese Grand Prix.

They will be champions if they extend their lead over McLaren by 34 points.

Naturally their best chance of doing that is with a one-two finish. However if the McLarens finish higher than sixth and tenth, or seventh and ninth, Red Bull won’t take the title on Sunday.

If Red Bull finish first and third they need the McLarens to do no better than eighth and ninth. Red Bull could also win the title with first and fourth or first and fifth again depending on how well the McLarens do.

So despite Red Bull’s crushing form they are not likely to win the championship just yet unless McLaren suffer some kind of misfortune.

Which of the championships do you expect to be decided this weekend?

2011 Japanese Grand Prix

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63 comments on How Vettel and Red Bull can win the titles in Japan

  1. Colossal Squid (@colossal-squid) said on 6th October 2011, 12:16

    It’s virtually impossible that Vettel won’t retain the title come Sunday. My hope is that he finishes on the podium at least. For me it’s a much better way to crown a champion and you get to see the emotion of the moment that much more when they’re a part of the podium ceremony.

  2. So all McLaren need to do is employ the already crash-happy Lewis Hamilton to take out Vettel at the start of each race and allow Button to take victory in the remaining GP.

    I jest of course, but it’d be good if Button did win in Japan with Vettel retiring!

  3. Toby. (@toby) said on 6th October 2011, 12:18

    Going to play it safe and put my money on Vettel securing it this weekend, with the team taking the title in Korea.

  4. BasCB (@bascb) said on 6th October 2011, 12:25

    I think its almost certain that Vettel will seal the title here, but Red Bull will have to wait.

    Who knows, maybe Button can really win this one and Hamilton make it on the podium to make a bit of a fight for the constructors title of it!

  5. 91jb12 (@91jb12) said on 6th October 2011, 12:30

    Vettel to nail it in japan
    The team to do it in Korea, good for them after what happened there last year

  6. supernicebob (@supernicebob) said on 6th October 2011, 12:44

    With no rain I can’t see any likely reason why Vettel will not get that point he needs this weekend, and he’ll probably get another 24 points to go with that one.

    A Red Bull 1-2 would also not be an unlikely result, but McLaren should be able to do enough to keep the constructor’s championship alive for one more round at least.

  7. Antranik (@antranik) said on 6th October 2011, 12:45

    The chances of him not winning the title here are astonishingly low… I hope 2012 keeps the racing excitement but the championship becomes closer, alot closer.

    • That would be great but if I’m honest the championship hasn’t really bothered me at all this year. I expect if Vettel’s dominance runs into next year though I’ll be start to get annoyed :P

  8. Stefanauss (@stefanauss) said on 6th October 2011, 12:50

    I’m really looking forward to find out if Vettel will be able to break the records for most wins and most poles in a season. Particularly the one for the most wins.
    You know, the championship being over for quite a while, it’s the little things you start to pay attention as a F1F :D

    My guess is: He won’t make it. Only thing is I hope it won’t be the case just because he will eventually help Webber for 2nd place.

  9. katmen (@katmen) said on 6th October 2011, 12:50

    the last point is hardest to score….

  10. I’m a bit surprised RBR will probably have to wait a little while longer to seal up the constructor’s title. I guess Mclaren have done well in that regard or Mark’s a bit of a weak link this season. I hope he is on good form next year.

  11. JT19 (@jt19) said on 6th October 2011, 13:12

    In the past few races, I have noticed a pattern. The Red Bull car is quick with full fuel whereas McLaren and Ferrari are OK, this means Vettel can pull a gap. Then when the fuel goes down, the Red Bull becomes OK along with the Ferrari, but the McLaren becomes the quickest, unless Vettel is pacing his car in the reamaining 20 laps on purpose because he is always 15 seconds ahead.

    With Vettel taking pole again, I expect this to happen once again, but will it be Button or Hamilton just behind him? Form says Button, but surely Hamilton can control his ‘gremlins’ and is due a great race. If Hamilton remains 2nd, watch him try and reel in Vettel in the remaining 20 laps or so.

    • Stefanauss (@stefanauss) said on 6th October 2011, 13:23

      It’s definitely Vettel managing the gap and the car till the end. It’s obvious and he stated it several times, last one in Singapore when He got asked about the final laps.
      I wouldn’t read a pattern on that. The early pace is the real pace RBR have.

      • JT19 (@jt19) said on 6th October 2011, 13:36

        Yep, the first 15 laps or so, that Red Bull is electric, and if Webber had decent starts, he would also prove that theory as well.

    • vho (@) said on 6th October 2011, 15:26

      I think Suzuka will suit Lewis more for qualifying as he is able to attack the corners (essess) a lot harder, where as Jenson will look for a conservative line to preserve the tyres for the race. It’s possible that Lewis could beat Vettel to pole and if the KERS fail for the RB at the start there will be another McLaren and a sea of Ferrari’s and Mercedes sailing past Vettel. If that is the case it will be interesting to see if Vettel would fight for the win or just secure a top ten spot for the WDC. If Jenson is not coming first then it would be reasonable to assume that Vettel will fight harder, but if Jenson is leading then I think Vettel will ensure he secures a top ten place rather than take any unnecessary risks.

    • vho (@) said on 6th October 2011, 15:31

      I think the problem with the Ferrari towards the end of the race is when they have to use a harder compound tyre once they have used up all the softer tyres. They don’t seem to be able to get enough grip from harder compound tyres and low fuel. I think they, in general, have a harder time with the harder tyre compounds than the RB and McLarens regardless of what fuel load they are all on.

  12. AaronVN said on 6th October 2011, 13:13

    A Vettel championship in Japan followed by RBR taking the constructors championship in Korea would work out nicely for a RBR fan sitting in Nagoya and heading to Korea next week…

  13. LHFANATIC said on 6th October 2011, 13:28

    People have forgotten the F1 champion that is HAM. he will finish ahead of button this season, the temporary slump will be over soo

  14. icemangrins (@icemangrins) said on 6th October 2011, 13:45

    Assuming Seb’s stunning form of getting into points in all the races and given the reliability of the car, he will win the drivers championship this weekend.

    In the last three races, RBR gained 35 constructor points over McLaren – +28 in Spa, -5 in Italy and +12 in Singapore. The next three races (Japan, Korea and India) will suit McLaren and given the odds, RBR will win the constructors champtionship more likely happen in India

  15. AdrianMorse (@adrianmorse) said on 6th October 2011, 13:52

    or second and third

    That’s not 34 points, is it?

    • Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 6th October 2011, 13:56

      @adrianmorse Oops, no it isn’t. Have scratched it from the article.

      Happily, that makes this a bit easier to remember now: Red Bull can’t win the title if they don’t win the race and have the other car in the top five.

  16. Bigbadderboom (@bigbadderboom) said on 6th October 2011, 13:59

    My interest is now on Massa v Hamilton, if Hamilton gets embroiled in some nose to tail racing then I think we will finally see some real fireworks, especially if Massa is playing rear gunner to Alonso. i thought i’d lose interest but these little battles are fun to follow! And an early start as well leaves the rest of the day free to spend with the kids. Me happy, missus happy, kids happy all good!!

    • Tony Swales said on 7th October 2011, 8:26

      I agree, I would prefer all races to start early morning or evening (So I can enjoy a beer or too)

  17. f1ellen (@) said on 6th October 2011, 14:03

    I don’t think I can handle the radio message transmission if/when he wraps this up.

    • xtophe (@xtophe) said on 6th October 2011, 15:27

      As long as he doesn’t try to be philosophical about it, I’m cool with whatever he says. It won’t be as emotional like in 2010 though I’m afraid (although you really can’t know that in advance I guess).

    • HoHum (@hohum) said on 6th October 2011, 16:41

      We hear it every race, I’m beginning to think it is recorded ; WoooooooHooooooo yes,yes,yes, we did it, thank you guys………..

  18. Incredibly, its harder for Vettel to lose than win.

  19. Mark-L (@mark-l) said on 6th October 2011, 15:56

    I have a feeling he won’t finish the race not sure why.

  20. west (@west) said on 6th October 2011, 17:11

    The constructors title will go up to the last race : red bull will have some reliability isues in the last 4 races.

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