Which teams will still be in F1 in ten years’ time?

Debates and polls

2002 Malaysian Grand Prix start

Just four of the 11 teams from 2002 remain

Of the 11 teams which contested the 2002 season, just four remain on the grid ten years later.

And of those, one has been taken over and then sold again in the intervening period.

Manufacturers come and go

Peugeot’s shock announcement on Wednesday that it was scrapping its endurance racing team served as a reminder that teams backed by car manufacturers can disappear with little warning.

Those in F1 have recent experience of this – Renault, Honda, BMW and Toyota have all set up and then abandoned F1 projects within the last decade, though Renault remain as an engine supplier.

Other manufacturers have demonstrated greater staying power: none more so than Ferrari, the only team left from the first year of the world championship in 1950.

Having had an F1 team in the fifties, Mercedes returned to the sport as an engine supplier in 1994, and became a full works outfit again two years ago.

Which teams will still be in F1 in 2022?

  • Red Bull (51%)
  • McLaren (96%)
  • Ferrari (97%)
  • Mercedes (46%)
  • Lotus (21%)
  • Force India (16%)
  • Sauber (27%)
  • Toro Rosso (9%)
  • Williams (45%)
  • Caterham (27%)
  • HRT (2%)
  • Marussia (2%)

Total Voters: 486

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McLaren are taking their first steps as a car manufacturer. Lotus, following a lengthy legal battle, have now united their F1 team with their car manufacturing operation.

Other teams with affiliations to car manufacturers are Caterham (formerly Lotus) and Marussia (formerly Virgin) – both teams which first entered the sport in 2010.

The independents

Of the rest, Williams have been active the longest, but are mired in their worst-ever losing streak.

World champions, Red Bull, and their young driver training school Toro Rosso, are financed by the vast sums Dietrich Mateschitz has made selling cans of energy drinks.

Force India are entering their fifth season but it remains to be seen whether the problems affecting parts of Vijay Mallya’s financial empire will have an effect on his F1 team.

Having been briefly taken over by BMW, Sauber are an independent team once more. Owner Peter Sauber was enticed back to the sport when the team he created threatened to disappear at the end of 2009.

And finally there’s HRT, who only made it into the sport by the skin of their teeth in 2010 when Grupo Hispania took over Adrian Campos’s entry, and changed hands again last year. We wait to see if 2012 will see the team continue their tradition of shaking down their new car at the first race of the season.

Lost names

Mika Salo, Toyota, Melbourne, 2002

Toyota: arrived in 2002, left in 2009, now returning to Le Mans

Running a Formula 1 team is a fearfully expensive business even for those running around at the back of the field. The casualties of the 2002-2011 period include names like Arrows and Minardi, who spent decades in the sport and started hundreds of races.

Other lost names include Jordan, BAR, Renault, Jaguar, Arrows, Minardi, Toyota, Honda, BMW-Sauber, Midland, Super Aguri, Spyker, Brawn and Virgin.

What does the future hold for the current 12 entrants – one-quarter of which have changed names over the winter? Do they have what it takes to last another decade in F1? And is the high rate of turnover among teams bad for the sport?

Cast your vote in the poll and have your say in the comments.

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F1 teams 2002-2012

This chart shows the championship positions achieved by all the teams that have competed in F1 in the last ten years. Use the controls below to hide or show different teams:

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/charts/allteams.csv

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
McLaren 9 10 2 4 5 6 3 3 1 3 2 3 8 7 9 6 2 5 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 4 4 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 2 3 11 2 3 2 2
Ferrari 2 2 3 1 6 4 1 4 2 5 4 5 2 3 4 6 2 1 1 1 2 1 10 5 1 1 2 2 4 4 2 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 4 3 3
Red Bull 7 7 5 7 2 1 1
Mercedes 4 4
Renault 12 6 4 3 3 2 5 7 4 4 3 1 1 3 4 8 5 5
Force India 10 9 7 6
Williams 9 2 1 1 4 4 6 3 1 1 7 2 4 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 5 3 3 2 2 4 5 8 4 8 7 6 9
HRT 11 11
Toro Rosso 9 7 6 10 9 8
Sauber 7 8 7 7 7 6 8 8 4 5 6 6 8 7
Lotus 6 4 2 2 2 1 3 1 5 2 8 1 3 1 5 1 1 4 7 4 2 1 4 5 7 5 8 3 4 3 3 4 6 8 9 5 6 10 10
Virgin 12 12
Arrows 10 9 7 8 11 10 9 8 10 7 5 7 9 8 7 9 7 10 11
BAR 5 6 8 5 2 6
BMW Sauber 5 2 3 6 8
Brawn 1
Honda 6 8 4 6 4 8 9
Jaguar 9 8 7 7 7
Jordan 5 11 10 5 6 5 5 4 3 6 5 6 9 9 9
Midland 10
Minardi 10 11 7 11 8 10 10 9 10 11 9 10 10 10
Spyker 10
Super Aguri 11 9 11
Toyota 10 8 8 4 6 6 5 5

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120 comments on Which teams will still be in F1 in ten years’ time?

  1. Kiril Varbanov (@kiril-varbanov) said on 20th January 2012, 10:39

    Given the current conditions, it’s quite easy to say that only the big 4 will remain in the game for sure, though I’d like to see BMW, Honda and Toyota back.

    • Mike (@mike) said on 20th January 2012, 15:41

      I don’t agree, Merc has publically said that it wikll leave if it doesn’t start winning. And Red Bull has said it will only stay as long as it is.

      I dunno how little spine they may or may not have, but I wouldn’t bet on a lot.

      (For the record, I think leaving because you can’t win it is spineless.)

  2. Slr (@slr) said on 20th January 2012, 10:52

    I expect most of the teams to stay in the long run. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if Lotus end up changing there name again.

  3. Cyclops_PL (@cyclops_pl) said on 20th January 2012, 10:54

    Beside Ferrari (no matter what break-away mumbo jumbo they will be saying) and McLaren I can see literally everyone having a chance of going away. From the big guns the first to go might be Mercedes (if it doesn’t achieve success and the economy in Europe will be still suffering from the crisis) and Lotus if their huge marketing plans fail. From the bottom I think Caterham has the greatest chance of staying for a longer term, whereas HRT might be gone even next week.

    Interesting thing is Red Bull. The team itself will probably stay permanently, whether it will under Red Bull’s ownership and brand, that’s a different story. It largely depends on whether the team can sustain it’s top-tier position after Adrian has retired.

  4. mr ROSSI (@mr-rossi) said on 20th January 2012, 10:56

    i could only vote for 3- ferrari,mclaren and WILLIAMS!

  5. Tom_ec1 (@tom_ec1) said on 20th January 2012, 11:05

    Keith,

    If you are going to defie teams by chassis name (which I agree is the best option) they have you considered whether you should attribute 7th place in 2010 to BMW Sauber?

    I know they dropped the BMW moniker from the team name, but the chassis remained “BMW Sauber”.

  6. Icthyes (@icthyes) said on 20th January 2012, 11:07

    What makes a team a team? A lot of people in Canada got excited this season with the return of the Winnipeg Jets franchise to the NHL. The original franchise moved away and this new incarnation is actually the results of a different franchise moving “back” to Winnipeg. But no-one really cares about that – to many they’re still the Winnipeg Jets, regardless of how they came back.

    In light of that, I would agree that being the same team but changing the name actually does constitute a new outfit. In which case, I expect only Ferrari and McLaren to still be there.

    It’s not hard to see the smaller teams being bought out, Mateschitz getting rid of Toro Rosso Lotus getting bored of its title sponsorship, Mercedes pulling a BMW. But there is something about Red Bull I don’t see surviving either, call it a hunch. Oddly I think Caterham has a good chance of staying around, not forever but maybe for the ten years.

  7. Which teams will still be in F1 in ten years’ time?

    That’s assuming F1 will still be around :P

    Ferrari, probably Mclaren. Red Bull unless they have a disaster. Williams will either die off in a few years or bounce back once the rules are shaken up but I bet it’s the former which means it’s probably be the latter. Renault will be around. They might not be a team but I think they’ll always be around F1. I’ll take a wild guess and say HRT too. Yep, I’m crazy but if I’m right can I get a prize? :P

  8. paulipedia (@paulipedia) said on 20th January 2012, 11:26

    Ok so am going to take a stab in the dark and say which teams will be in F1 in 10 yrs time

    Ferrari
    McLaren
    Red Bull/Renault
    Lotus
    Mercedes
    Kia
    VW
    Marrrusia
    Williams/Honda
    BMW
    Penske/Chevrolet
    Torro Rosso
    Dallara/Renault

  9. smifaye (@smifaye) said on 20th January 2012, 11:31

    I’ve gone for McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes and Williams. I think McLaren and Ferrari are pretty obvious choices due to their history and success and it would be silly for them to move away. I think Mercedes are also in it for the long term and if they don’t get the results and walk away before then that would not go down well at all. Williams is more of a hope that within the next ten years Williams will be at the top of the field and winning and stay in F1.

    I’m not sure about Red Bull staying in F1, the reason being that they have achieved what they set out to achieve – win both titles. They have know done this for 2 consecutive years now and you have to wonder whether they can keep that up. They could go either way and want to recreate the dominant Ferrari years (if they can that is) or bow out soon knowing they have blown the oppositiion away. I think the other teams we have will probably stick around but in different guises.

    I think that change is good for F1 as it brings new talent to the board and also gives other teams a chance to rise to the top of the pile/sink to the bottom. I think as long as we have the teams like McLaren, Ferrari and Williams then all will be OK.

  10. scribbler (@scribbler) said on 20th January 2012, 13:00

    Can someone explain that graph? how come for example there is no position 1 in 1995 and yet williams have position 2.

  11. ECWDanSelby (@ecwdanselby) said on 20th January 2012, 13:05

    I find this constant changing of identity a little sad.

    It reminds me of the current state of the Premier League (football/soccer) and their stadiums all being renamed seemingly bi-yearly.

  12. Bookoi (@bookoi) said on 20th January 2012, 14:01

    Blimey. Ended up picking just four (McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes, Williams) and even that was more ’3 and hopefully Williams’.

  13. James (@jamesf1) said on 20th January 2012, 14:13

    You say only 4 teams have remained, I would say that’s a little misleading. 4 team names have remained, the teams themselves havent changed too much, and have existed in different guises.

    Jordan>Midland>Spyker>Force Inida
    Sauber>BMW Sauber>Sauber
    Reanult>Lotus Renault GP
    Minardi>Toro Rosso
    Jaguar>Red Bull

    Many of these teams have retained their engineers and their bases, I would suggest the teams are still here, just different owners.

    Sorry for the pedantic post!

  14. Jarv F150 (@jarvf150) said on 20th January 2012, 14:53

    I would go for teams that dont have a bunch of bean-counters deciding the fate. Teams that are in it to race not for brand awareness or developing technologies for road car use.

    Williams, Ferarri, McLaren as it has always been.

    Taking a bet?
    Sauber possibly.
    HRT for the long odds.

  15. Randy (@randy) said on 20th January 2012, 15:23

    IF the F1 will still be around in current form, three teams are most certain to participate in 2022 World Championship. Ferrari, Mclaren and Aureo.

    Ferrari being Ferrari, Mclaren will become a succesfull car manufacturer with strong presence in racing and that third unknown outfit… Well let’s spill the beans. It’s my company that i’m just starting. 10 years from now and i will fund my F1 team, or maybe form a partnership to sponsor McLaren like Vodafone today, haven’t decided yet.

    Of that, i can assure you. :D

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