Shuffled grid expected for Australian Grand Prix

2012 Australian Grand Prix practice analysis

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Fernando Alonso, Ferrari, Melbourne, 2012
Fernando Alonso expects some change to the usual running order in qualifying for the Australian Grand Prix.

Speaking after rain disrupted both of today’s practice sessions the Ferrari driver said: “There’s no point looking at the time sheet from today with a view to making predictions for qualifying.

“Tomorrow I expect to see a very mixed up grid because there are so many teams that have done a good job over the winter”

Two dry sessions might have given us more of an indication what shape the teams are in heading into the first race of the season. But there’s little to be gleaned from Friday’s practice data.

Longest stints in second practice

https://www.racefans.net/charts/2012drivercolours.csv

12345678910
Sebastian Vettel96.97594.54594.76100.20493.1492.76292.58292.19493.09392.238
Mark Webber96.7794.61393.4799.70693.19693.01492.29698.31994.191
Jenson Button97.52295.38294.46593.97198.08493.47893.03997.37793.742
Lewis Hamilton98.21796.63894.96993.9393.71393.5293.93593.25297.736
Fernando Alonso96.20390.341101.10393.94291.645
Felipe Massa91.50596.23395.469
Michael Schumacher95.19890.64393.65189.81994.00189.66289.183
Nico Rosberg95.10394.22296.71492.39494.36695.54592.18492.403
Kimi Raikkonen99.63895.45996.79598.47594.275
Romain Grosjean96.1995.24594.4494.87393.82893.77493.46692.82293.551
Paul di Resta92.30291.639101.381
Nico Hulkenberg94.01594.46995.79189.808100.35589.97189.292
Kamui Kobayashi107.17115.464106.098112.065105.117105.22
Sergio Perez92.0690.2595.29398.90590.19991.226
Daniel Ricciardo105.742102.248101.492100.592100.82799.41499.95299.70699.12498.914
Jean-Eric Vergne100.44398.01697.30696.16195.67395.11195.06594.48597.608100.834
Pastor Maldonado98.14495.90595.82994.96594.108112.63194.9299.01498.892
Bruno Senna98.32697.95495.42994.89196.91398.66194.58395.68894.312
Heikki Kovalainen93.34795.45696.35492.18291.93296.40294.389
Vitaly Petrov99.06699.42399.80299.62292.767103.04598.99996.897
Pedro de la Rosa
Narain Karthikeyan108.73105.645102.627102.865
Timo Glock101.389110.926102.833
Charles Pic106.55112.445103.927115.871

Michael Schumacher was quickest at the end of the second session but was cautious about Mercedes’ potential:

“I would not go so far as to speak about being confident, as the weather conditions were too mixed to gain a clear picture,” he said. “We know what Friday sessions are for and don’t know what fuel loads others were running.

“On the other hand, it is good to see that we were competitive in different circumstances today and that the car provides good handling – I just feel it.”

Looking at the longest stint lap times from the second session (above) Red Bull, McLaren and Mercedes had comparable rates of drop-off in their performance. Where Ferrari are in this picture is even harder to tell as their stints were shorter.

Ordinarily teams would use this part of the session to compare the tyre compounds on offer, but their ability to do that was limited by the conditions.

Red Bull put both their drivers on the soft tyre for this late stint. Jenson Button did the same, whereas Lewis Hamilton used the medium.

Schumacher also used the medium for his last stint. Pirelli said the tyre was “particularly well suited to the conditions” and added: “the performance gap between the two compounds has significantly decreased”.

Best sectors and ultimate laps

Here are the drivers best sector times from the second session:

CarDriverCarSector 1Sector 2Sector 3Ultimate lapGapDeficit to best
17Michael SchumacherMercedes30.37123.39335.2331’28.9970.186
212Nico HulkenbergForce India-Mercedes30.30223.59435.2321’29.1280.1310.164
315Sergio PerezSauber-Ferrari30.43323.80035.6251’29.8580.8610.341
45Fernando AlonsoFerrari30.59723.53835.8741’30.0091.0120.332
514Kamui KobayashiSauber-Ferrari30.76723.99935.6971’30.4631.4660.246
611Paul di RestaForce India-Mercedes31.03923.82735.8651’30.7311.7340.735
720Heikki KovalainenCaterham-Renault30.70123.83736.6181’31.1562.1590.776
86Felipe MassaFerrari30.87724.15336.3481’31.3782.3810.127
98Nico RosbergMercedes31.23924.19136.6561’32.0863.0890.098
101Sebastian VettelRed Bull-Renault31.03124.42436.6671’32.1223.1250.072
112Mark WebberRed Bull-Renault31.19524.40936.6271’32.2313.2340.065
1221Vitaly PetrovCaterham-Renault31.25423.98037.0081’32.2423.2450.525
1324Timo GlockMarussia-Cosworth31.41924.28236.9311’32.6323.6350.000
1410Romain GrosjeanLotus-Renault31.39224.57936.7191’32.6903.6930.132
153Jenson ButtonMcLaren-Mercedes31.58224.43336.9121’32.9273.9300.112
164Lewis HamiltonMcLaren-Mercedes31.49424.61437.1441’33.2524.2550.000
1718Pastor MaldonadoWilliams-Renault31.43124.78737.4021’33.6204.6230.488
1819Bruno SennaWilliams-Renault31.63824.76137.4711’33.8704.8730.442
199Kimi RaikkonenLotus-Renault31.68424.89837.3351’33.9174.9200.358
2017Jean-Eric VergneToro Rosso-Ferrari31.88424.88837.7131’34.4855.4880.000
2116Daniel RicciardoToro Rosso-Ferrari31.95224.96837.6051’34.5255.5280.079
2225Charles PicMarussia-Cosworth32.13625.00937.6251’34.7705.7730.000
2323Narain KarthikeyanHRT-Cosworth34.09526.90539.9671’40.96711.9701.660
2422Pedro de la RosaHRT-Cosworth53.52535.542

Despite having had little pre-season running, Marussia look capable of beating the 107% rule in Q1 and making it into the race. Timo Glock was only 3.9% slower than Schumacher in the second session.

Unlike all of the drivers in front of him, Glock set all three of his best sectors on that lap. But even knowing that – and assuming this was a low-fuel run on new, soft tyres, and that the faster cars will pick up more time on a fully-dry track – this is a positive sign the MR01s can qualify on merit.

It’s hard to be similarly optimistic about HRT’s chances, but at least they have done more running so far than they had at this point last year.

Straight-line speeds

Maximum speeds – first practice:

#DriverCarEngineMax speedGap
19Kimi RaikkonenLotusRenault313.9
27Michael SchumacherMercedesMercedes312.81.1
310Romain GrosjeanLotusRenault312.81.1
416Daniel RicciardoToro RossoFerrari312.51.4
58Nico RosbergMercedesMercedes3121.9
63Jenson ButtonMcLarenMercedes311.92
717Jean-Eric VergneToro RossoFerrari311.22.7
815Sergio PerezSauberFerrari310.43.5
914Kamui KobayashiSauberFerrari309.14.8
104Lewis HamiltonMcLarenMercedes308.75.2
1111Paul di RestaForce IndiaMercedes308.65.3
1212Nico HulkenbergForce IndiaMercedes308.25.7
1320Heikki KovalainenCaterhamRenault307.66.3
142Mark WebberRed BullRenault306.87.1
151Sebastian VettelRed BullRenault305.68.3
165Fernando AlonsoFerrariFerrari304.49.5
176Felipe MassaFerrariFerrari303.110.8
1821Vitaly PetrovCaterhamRenault30211.9
1919Bruno SennaWilliamsRenault301.512.4
2018Pastor MaldonadoWilliamsRenault301.312.6
2124Timo GlockMarussiaCosworth297.116.8
2225Charles PicMarussiaCosworth29023.9
2323Narain KarthikeyanHRTCosworth266.247.7

Maximum speeds – second practice:

#DriverCarEngineMax speedGap
110Romain GrosjeanLotusRenault314.5
27Michael SchumacherMercedesMercedes311.82.7
315Sergio PerezSauberFerrari311.72.8
414Kamui KobayashiSauberFerrari311.13.4
58Nico RosbergMercedesMercedes308.65.9
611Paul di RestaForce IndiaMercedes308.36.2
717Jean-Eric VergneToro RossoFerrari3086.5
812Nico HulkenbergForce IndiaMercedes307.96.6
920Heikki KovalainenCaterhamRenault307.47.1
1021Vitaly PetrovCaterhamRenault307.37.2
115Fernando AlonsoFerrariFerrari304.210.3
1224Timo GlockMarussiaCosworth303.810.7
136Felipe MassaFerrariFerrari303.610.9
1425Charles PicMarussiaCosworth301.612.9
1519Bruno SennaWilliamsRenault300.114.4
1623Narain KarthikeyanHRTCosworth29915.5
179Kimi RaikkonenLotusRenault298.615.9
181Sebastian VettelRed BullRenault297.716.8
193Jenson ButtonMcLarenMercedes297.616.9
202Mark WebberRed BullRenault297.117.4
2118Pastor MaldonadoWilliamsRenault297.117.4
224Lewis HamiltonMcLarenMercedes296.717.8
2316Daniel RicciardoToro RossoFerrari29618.5
2422Pedro de la RosaHRTCosworth150.3164.2

Mercedes’ rear wing, which is believed to enhance the power of its DRS to give it superior drag-reduction, has been the focus of much discussion. Schumacher was the second-fastest driver through the speed trap in both sessions.

Last year we grew accustomed to seeing Red Bull towards the bottom of the speed trap times and that was the case here as well. However the rapidly-drying track in the second session appears to have exaggerated the difference.

Predictions Championship

Reckon you can predict the top five finishers in the race? We’ve got loads of prizes to be won in the F1 Fanatic Predictions Championship so enter here now:

2012 Australian Grand Prix


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    Image © Ferrari spa/Ercole Colombo

    Author information

    Keith Collantine
    Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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    45 comments on “Shuffled grid expected for Australian Grand Prix”

    1. Wow, what an intriguing couple of sessions that was. It would have been great to see a bit more sunshine for FP2, but if anything the rain has prolonged the agony of trying to spot an order before Quali.

      Horner said afterwards RBR still haven’t done a low fuel run, and I don’t think Mclaren have either – just my opinion but I reckon it’s too close to call between Mclaren and RBR at the front, with Mercedes not too far off in third.

      Literally counting down the hours until Quali now!

      1. Well, the dry running was limited and with a green track, its a fair assumption that not many will have done a low fuel/qualy run tests on the track.

        Expect it in FP3 however, thats when we see whose going to be the benchmark. Or atleast get a good idea.

    2. Keith,just a suggestion, it would have been great if the sector times are color coded for say top 3 or 5, or just sector time rankings are mentioned in bracket.
      It would give more insight about the relative performance of cars in different sectors, specially in technical circuits like Catalunya.

    3. Seen on Twitter that Vettel has apparently told an interviewer that he was not happy with the car at all today. Tomorrow’s target is to just try and make Q3…

      1. I saw that as well. However, I think a lot of that was due to the fact that this was probably the second day (I think there was one in Barcelona) of having the new cars on a wet track so they were unpredictable.

        If they don’t make Q3 I will cut my arm off. I do believe there was actually a time last season when he made a similar quote about making it to Q3 and then going from there. Hmm.

      2. @mclarenfanjamm yes but if you read the article he goes on to say that he was a lot happier in FP2. That is – if we read the same article.

      3. any links?

        1. “It’s difficult to say. Tomorrow the target is to get into Q3 and then we go from there.” So he’s not settling for 5th row of the grid, he just doesn’t know what’s going to happen and whether they’ll be fast enough to fight for pole position.

          1. to me that’s a meaningless statement. He says in the BBC interview he wasn’t happy at all in the morning but it got better

      4. Probably just mind games

    4. Luis Perez-Sala, team principal of HRT, thinks that his team’s season might not start until Malaysia, or even Shanghai.

      I can’t say I’m going to miss them.

      1. I was a bit shocked to read that. I wonder whether Luis Perez-Sala is just being cautious, or whether they are really in worse shape than last year.

        I would miss them, however, even if only a little bit. The teams at the back of the grid add their own stories to a Formula One season, even if those stories are not as interesting as the fight for the championship (not that last year’s championship story was very interesting…) Last year, for example, I found it interesting to watch Ricciardo come into the team and see how he compared to Liuzzi, and also to see the HRTs regularly fighting with the Virgins.

        1. @adrianmorse I imagine they will miss this weekend but will be back for Sepang. They’re just far too off the pace and haven’t set any reasonably good practice times either.

        2. I don’t find their story to be exciting. It’s not that I’m only interested in the championship battle, it’s just that I want every season to mean something for every driver. For example, picking one driver from every team: Will Vettel become only the third driver to win three titles in a row? Will Hamilton put his personal troubles behind him this year? Will Massa salvage his reputation? Will Schumacher do enough to merit another year in the sport? Will Räikkönen make a successful comeback? Which semi-rookie will cement their reputation by triumphing at Force India? Will Pérez do enough to put him in contention for a Ferrari drive next year? Will either of the Toro Rosso drivers impress enough to move up to the senior team? Will Senna flourish at a team so strongly associated with his uncle? Will Caterham move up into the midfield? Will Pic show that he deserves his place in F1, having never won any other series?

          Then we get to HRT. de la Rosa is too old to have any significant future in the sport (I know Schumacher is older, but the difference is that Schumacher is still pretty good), and I think he has mainly been hired by the team for his nationality. It was the same Spanish kick which prompted the team to massively disrupt their off-season by moving to Spain – so it should come as no surprise that they don’t have a car ready. Meanwhile, Karthikeyan is only driving because he has sponsorship from Tata, and even that means so little to the team that he was dropped last year as soon as Red Bull came calling with a more tempting offer. Those aren’t stories that interest me, sorry.

          1. But those stories do cover almost half of your comment… ;-) @estesark

          2. I think DeLaRosa is, at least, in as good a shape as Schumacher.
            In 2010 he was only dropped by Sauber ‘cos of ‘pay driver’ Perez.

            1. De la Rosa wasn’t replaced by Perez – Sauber dropped him five races before the end of 2010 and replaced him with Nick Heidfeld.

              Perez may bring sponsorship but he was also GP2 runner-up in 2010, in his second year in the series, which is a respectable accomplishment and good enough for any driver to get a seat in F1 on merit. Indeed, six out of the seven GP2 runners-up have done just that.

              And Perez had an excellent first season in F1 last year – so much so I picked him as my rookie of the year.

            2. That’s right, I forgot.
              I just meant to say that’s he was performing quite well that year.
              As for the ‘pay driver’ thing, I put it quoted just to say that almost everyone there is one, no matter how good they are.
              (I’m replying to myself as keith’s comment has no reply button).

            3. Perez has shown enough speed and skill to suggest he is not a pay driver, so get over yourself.

            4. de la Rosa is no where close to Schumacher, from a Career point or from his form this year. That’s an insult on its own, also to put down Perez is silly he has gotten into f1 by his own merit yes he may be funded by the richest man in the world but almost every new driver brings with them sponsorship and drive money. I don’t see why Perez should be singled out.

        3. They’re too slow to want them to be in the race. They’re pretty much just a safety hazard for the other drivers, unfortunately. And an interference in Q1. And a random DRS boost for drivers lapping them.

          I don’t mind them trying to compete but when they are clearly unprepared I don’t really have sympathy. I think they should be allowed to try to qualify, if they can’t them keep them out.

    5. I recon Marussia where doing lots of lower fuel runs so in case they don’t get within the 107% tomorrow they can point to their practice performance today and be allowed to race on Sunday.

      1. @arporter it doesn’t work that way. They basically have to set a laptime that is within 107% of P1 time of Q1 qualifying. 107% of a free practice time doesn’t count.

        1. Yeah but they could say to the FIA look we were posting competitive thats what the car can do. Much better than were just miles off in qualifying and have nothing else going for them

        2. I know but if they fail to meet the 107% in qualifying, they can justify their participation through their performance in practice sessions so dispensation can be given

        3. it does work that way. if they fail to reach the 107% mark, its up to the stewards to decide if they race.. and the stewards will be looking at FP1 in context to see if they will allow them to race. (as happened several times last year)

        4. They can have “faulty cars” for qualy and may be allowed in, on practice results…

        5. @mrgrieves @arporter @vjanik If they don’t make the 107% cut in qualifying – they have to have a free practice time that is FASTER than that – which DOES make qualifying 107%.

    6. I just hope the predictions are right and it’s really close. While I have a huge amount of respect for what Red Bull have done the last couple of years, I’ll be really annoyed if they do their usual trick and smash the field in quali.

    7. I really do worry for Ferrari and Alonso’s chances this year. But then Merc & RB don’t seem happy either whilst McLaren seem eerily quiet.

      1. I think everyone is just nervous and anxious to know where they stand so they can get to work to catch up or stay ahead. There is much less downforce, tweaks in the regs and, as ever, everything to play for.

        The lack of dry running today is only going to make P3, qualifying and the race 100 times better. Bring. It. On.

    8. I really don’t get the feeling that Redbull are going to dominate qualifying. Remember they were using different engine maps for qualifying for periods last year. Thats gone.
      I think it is not only going to be closer amongst the top 3 or 4 teams but also amongst the team drivers to.
      I think all the drivers are quite genuine in saying they have no idea where they will qualify as in they have no funny tricks up their sleeves.

    9. Alonso

      There’s no point looking at the time sheet from today with a view to making predictions for qualifying.

      I guess Fernandos waiting until after P3 to make his first F1Fanatic prediction of the season!!!!! :)

      1. @bigbadderboom I hope he took a leaf out of Glock’s book and hasn’t decided to bet on the outcome! https://www.racefans.net/2011/09/22/glock-bet-vettel-f1-singapore/

    10. A very interesting sesion. Just finished watching them and the merc’s look quick. However, how much feul, and how much was he going for it? It is vvery hard to predict as no-one really wanted to push. Interesting point made my AD during the sesion, I didn’t know teams had that little spares at this stage in the season! I would of thougth that they would have pleanty of spare parts available.

      1. judging by the testing times and by the top speed advantage shumacher had over mclaren that use the same engine, he was obviously on much lower fuel then redbull and mclaren, oh and being ahead of rosberg also suggests it was lower fuel that made the time. ;)

        1. @dkpioe

          judging by the testing times and by the top speed advantage shumacher had over mclaren that use the same engine, he was obviously on much lower fuel then redbull and mclaren

          Not necesarily…. It is common knowledge that Mercedes, being an engine supplier for McLaren Mercedes, obviously won´t give them a better engine than what they use too. They are customers… Just as Ferrari sells engines to Toro Rosso… I don´t see Toro Rosso up there! Get my point?
          They have an obligation to provide a good product BUT, they will always keep the best for them… It´s just common sense.

          1. He was probably being ironic, Jack.

    11. This pre season has been soooooooo frustrating. I can never remember any season where after every session the picture of where everyone is is less clear. A Schumacher fan i really hope this isnt a false dawn even though i keep telling myself practice means nothing the race is Sunday but where is everyone! Usually we have clues through pre season tests and pre race practice but this years showing nothing!

      1. And it could be even worse if it rains in qualifying.

    12. Caterham seem to be doing fine. Add that to the fact that Kovalainen was o.7s off his absolute best time and yet finished comfortably in the Top 10 is just great. Cant wait for Q1 in less than 12 hrs time!!!

    13. @keithcollantine – I know this might be an impossible request given that you need twenty-four colours, but would it somehow be possible to change the colours used in the graphs? The problem is that I’m red-green colour-blind, so I have some trouble making out the graphs and the key if I want to compare drivers. It’s not that big of a deal if it can’t be changed, but colour-blindness is so common that I’m pretty sure I’m not the only one experiencing trouble with it.

      1. I’m not in your boat re: colour blindness but do find it hard sometimes to distinguish the graphs. Maybe as an alternative to colours, perhaps different styles of line e.g. dashes, dots etc like in a CAD drawing. Maybe to reduce colours / line styles, it could be a combo of the 2 each tam has a dash style with driver A in Blue and Driver B in yellow for example.

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