Rain could play a role in round two of Hamilton versus Button

2012 Malaysian Grand Prix pre-race analysis

March 24, 2012 at 1:00 pm by
100 comments

Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, Sepang, 2012Lewis Hamilton lost the lead – and arguably the win – to his team mate on the run to the first corner in Melbourne.

He will be at pains to stop that happening again.

But he and Jenson Button both have a fast-starting Michael Schumacher to contend with – as well as the threat of rain.

The start

The run to the first corner at Sepang is one of the longest on the F1 calendar – there’s 660m between Hamilton’s pole position slot and the apex of turn one.

A lot can happen in that space. Poor starts are harshly punished – as Mark Webber found out last year when his KERS failed at the start.

With the FIA restricting the assistance a driver can receive at the start this year, we could see more changes in the opening lap than we’re used to. In Australia, none of the top three starters made particularly clean getaways.

One driver who did start well was Michael Schumacher – as he often did last year. From third on the grid this year he is well-placed to attack the McLarens. He also has excellent straight-line speed (see below).

Last year Sebastian Vettel’s defended aggressively against Hamilton at the start – this year Hamilton may have to dish out the same treatment to his team mate – or Schumacher.

But Hamilton’s defensive tactics have got him in trouble here in the past two years. Now would be a good time for him to reacquaint himself with the rules on defensive driving that were clarified over the winter.

Strategy

Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Sepang, 2012It’s unusual to see any of the top drivers in Q3 using (and therefore starting the race) on the harder tyre. Vettel has done so this weekend, and will start on the hard tyres from fifth on the grid following Kimi Raikkonen’s penalty.

He admitted afterwards this was not a strategic decision, simply a consequence of the RB8 being unable to produce a faster lap on the softer tyres as track temperatures hit the mid-40s.

It could hurt him at the start as those around him will have better traction off the line with their softer compounds.

As the hard tyres appear to offer the best combination of grip and durability, Vettel may be in a better shape later on in the first stint. But there’s no getting away from the fact he will have to use the softer tyres eventually.

He may prefer to wait until his final stint to keep the time spent on them as short as possible, allowing the track to rubber-in and his fuel load to decrease.

Friday practice indicated drivers will need three pit stops to get to the end of the race. “The key will be to look after your tyres in the race,” said Hamilton. “They’ll have a tough time, especially on 150kg of fuel.”

Of course this assumes the race will take place in dry conditions. There have been thunderstorms and rain showers during the weekend, and there is an increased chance of rain on race day.

Rain tends to fall in heavy bursts and dry up quickly in Sepang. In 2009, very heavy rain meant the race could not be completed in time before darkness fell.

This year’s race starts at 4pm local time, with sunset expected at 7:23pm. There is a new-for-2012 maximum time limit of four hours on races if they are suspended.

Qualifying times in full

Driver Car Q1 Q2 (vs Q1) Q3 (vs Q2)
1 Lewis Hamilton McLaren 1’37.813 1’37.106 (-0.707) 1’36.219 (-0.887)
2 Jenson Button McLaren 1’37.575 1’36.928 (-0.647) 1’36.368 (-0.560)
3 Michael Schumacher Mercedes 1’37.517 1’37.017 (-0.500) 1’36.391 (-0.626)
4 Mark Webber Red Bull 1’37.172 1’37.375 (+0.203) 1’36.461 (-0.914)
5 Kimi Raikkonen Lotus 1’37.961 1’36.715 (-1.246) 1’36.461 (-0.254)
6 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 1’38.102 1’37.419 (-0.683) 1’36.634 (-0.785)
7 Romain Grosjean Lotus 1’38.058 1’37.338 (-0.720) 1’36.658 (-0.680)
8 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1’37.696 1’36.996 (-0.700) 1’36.664 (-0.332)
9 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 1’38.151 1’37.379 (-0.772) 1’37.566 (+0.187)
10 Sergio Perez Sauber 1’37.933 1’37.477 (-0.456) 1’37.698 (+0.221)
11 Pastor Maldonado Williams 1’37.789 1’37.589 (-0.200)
12 Felipe Massa Ferrari 1’38.381 1’37.731 (-0.650)
13 Bruno Senna Williams 1’38.437 1’37.841 (-0.596)
14 Paul di Resta Force India 1’38.325 1’37.877 (-0.448)
15 Daniel Ricciardo Toro Rosso 1’38.419 1’37.883 (-0.536)
16 Nico Hulkenberg Force India 1’38.303 1’37.890 (-0.413)
17 Kamui Kobayashi Sauber 1’38.372 1’38.069 (-0.303)
18 Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso 1’39.077
19 Heikki Kovalainen Caterham 1’39.306
20 Vitaly Petrov Caterham 1’39.567
21 Timo Glock Marussia 1’40.903
22 Charles Pic Marussia 1’41.250
23 Pedro de la Rosa HRT 1’42.914
24 Narain Karthikeyan HRT 1’43.655

With the five fastest qualifiers separated by two-tenths of a second, the front of the grid looks very close indeed.

Vettel is the only driver in the top ten starting on the hard tyres. Those outside the top ten have a free choice of which tyre they start on.

Fernando Alonso may be more competitive than his qualifying lap time suggests. I had a KERS problem on my only run in Q3″, he said.

“I don’t think it cost me any places, but it would definitely have made the gap to pole look more realistic.”

Sector times

Driver Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Lewis Hamilton 24.807 (2) 32.277 (1) 39.135 (8)
Jenson Button 25.005 (6) 32.416 (2) 38.947 (2)
Michael Schumacher 24.749 (1) 32.567 (8) 39.075 (4)
Mark Webber 25.040 (8) 32.464 (3) 38.889 (1)
Kimi Raikkonen 24.816 (4) 32.509 (5) 39.108 (6)
Sebastian Vettel 25.036 (7) 32.566 (7) 39.032 (3)
Romain Grosjean 25.054 (10) 32.488 (4) 39.116 (7)
Nico Rosberg 24.807 (2) 32.705 (11) 39.077 (5)
Fernando Alonso 25.158 (12) 32.633 (9) 39.565 (10)
Sergio Perez 25.188 (13) 32.509 (5) 39.691 (13)
Pastor Maldonado 25.220 (14) 32.698 (10) 39.533 (9)
Felipe Massa 25.270 (16) 32.841 (13) 39.601 (11)
Bruno Senna 25.258 (15) 32.843 (14) 39.740 (15)
Paul di Resta 24.944 (5) 32.976 (16) 39.849 (17)
Daniel Ricciardo 25.113 (11) 32.933 (15) 39.837 (16)
Nico Hulkenberg 25.051 (9) 33.037 (17) 39.732 (14)
Kamui Kobayashi 25.342 (18) 32.789 (12) 39.650 (12)
Jean-Eric Vergne 25.339 (17) 33.398 (18) 40.271 (19)
Heikki Kovalainen 25.444 (20) 33.631 (19) 40.177 (18)
Vitaly Petrov 25.398 (19) 33.703 (20) 40.355 (20)
Timo Glock 25.775 (21) 34.184 (22) 40.944 (21)
Charles Pic 25.967 (22) 34.177 (21) 41.106 (22)
Pedro de la Rosa 26.075 (23) 35.167 (24) 41.672 (23)
Narain Karthikeyan 26.114 (24) 35.065 (23) 42.052 (24)

Hamilton’s locked tyre at the final corner seems to have cost him around two-tenths of a second.

As expected the Mercedes are strongest in the two sectors with the long straights. Force India also look strong in the first sector.

Qualifying speed trap

Pos Driver Car Speed (kph/mph) Gap
1 Michael Schumacher Mercedes 312.7 (194.3)
2 Romain Grosjean Lotus 310.8 (193.1) -1.9
3 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 309.9 (192.6) -2.8
4 Kimi Raikkonen Lotus 309.8 (192.5) -2.9
5 Daniel Ricciardo Toro Rosso 309.8 (192.5) -2.9
6 Nico Hulkenberg Force India 309.4 (192.3) -3.3
7 Lewis Hamilton McLaren 309.1 (192.1) -3.6
8 Jenson Button McLaren 308.9 (191.9) -3.8
9 Paul di Resta Force India 308.7 (191.8) -4.0
10 Heikki Kovalainen Caterham 308.3 (191.6) -4.4
11 Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso 308.1 (191.4) -4.6
12 Vitaly Petrov Caterham 307.6 (191.1) -5.1
13 Kamui Kobayashi Sauber 306.8 (190.6) -5.9
14 Pastor Maldonado Williams 305.1 (189.6) -7.6
15 Bruno Senna Williams 305.0 (189.5) -7.7
16 Sergio Perez Sauber 304.0 (188.9) -8.7
17 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 302.6 (188.0) -10.1
18 Felipe Massa Ferrari 302.0 (187.7) -10.7
19 Narain Karthikeyan HRT 301.2 (187.2) -11.5
20 Pedro de la Rosa HRT 300.0 (186.4) -12.7
21 Mark Webber Red Bull 299.0 (185.8) -13.7
22 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 298.7 (185.6) -14.0
23 Charles Pic Marussia 296.6 (184.3) -16.1
24 Timo Glock Marussia 296.6 (184.3) -16.1

Mercedes’ straight-line speed advantage in qualifying thanks to their enhanced DRS is clear to see. But this picture will change in the race.

Red Bull once again languish towards the bottom of the chart. They will have to rely on strategy and quick pit work to move forward in the race.

The Lotuses are also quick in a straight line – good news for Raikkonen as he bids to move up from tenth on the grid after his penalty.

Your view on the Malaysian Grand Prix

How do you think the race will unfold?

Will Hamilton be able to hold off Button this time? Will Schumacher get on the podium?

Have your say in the comments.

2012 Malaysian Grand Prix


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100 comments on Rain could play a role in round two of Hamilton versus Button

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  1. sumedh said on 24th March 2012, 16:11

    This is Hamilton’s race to lose. He has set the fatstest time inspite of a lock up and he also didn’t do a second lap.

    Reply
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    himmatsj (@himmatsj) said on 24th March 2012, 16:45

    Hi, just to be sure, if the track is damp at the start or if it is drizzling slightly before the race begins, must they start behind the safely car?

    Reply

  3. timo said on 24th March 2012, 18:22

    Why is Räikkönen after Webber with the same time? Can someone clarify the rules? Thank you!

    Reply
  4. Avatar Image

    Palle (@palle) said on 24th March 2012, 18:34

    We don’t know their relative speed without DRS and with heavy fuel load as in the beginning of the race. In Melbourne Schumacher was under heavy pressure from Vettel, and it seemed to me, it was only a matter of time before Vettel would pass him, when – very unlucky – the Mercedes gearbox failed. Maybe Vettel will not be as fast in the first stint due to the hard tyres, but if not him, then other drivers will pressure Schumacher from behind.

    Reply

    • blackmamba said on 24th March 2012, 18:42

      Well observed. One thing though, I hope Schumi isn’t too desperate to put on an impressive performance for his critics that he goes too hot into the first lap and causes a crash.
      Him and Hamilton
      Side by side
      Both hotheads
      Who gives ground……………. I shudder to think about it!

      Reply

  5. racinguf said on 24th March 2012, 18:53

    I see good start MSC takes webber slow start and Button bettering Ham as usual for granted and shoots for turn 1 outside – turn 2 inside, big caos on turn 1 and 2 with Mac’s and MSC slowing to avoid DNF due crash, with G-Lotus gaining pass all the confution, Alonso may sweep thru with webber or stay behind that caos, well if not taken out by Rosberg joining the line after going around Vettel, Perez a Kimi will be safe to push on strategy right behind if not taking out by one of maldonado starts.
    Hehe well it will be awesome anyway !

    Reply

    • matthew said on 24th March 2012, 21:18

      as usual?it happened once and now all of a sudden ppl are talking like it happens all the time.
      and incase you didnt notice,lewis had a clutch problem at the start which caused wheel spin.
      do you expect that to happen at the start of every race?

      Reply

  6. WhoKnows? said on 24th March 2012, 19:18

    If anyone gets 50pts in the predictions they deserve a extra prize. If Vettel doesnt get swallowed in the opening stint He`s strategy could be a winner, can Hamilton nurse He`s tires an resist the urge to blitz every lap, will Button resist the urge to conserve an blitz every lap. And then theres Schumacher, the Baron is back.

    Reply
  7. Avatar Image

    electrolite (@electrolite) said on 24th March 2012, 19:18

    I can’t wait for this :D

    Reply
  8. Avatar Image

    JamieFranklinF1 (@jamiefranklinf1) said on 24th March 2012, 19:38

    I’m gutted that I’ll miss the race live, but at least I’ll get to watch the highlights. Stupid shift changing at work.

    With the way the tyres have been degrading, and what the teams have been saying, then it wouldn’t surprise me if Jenson beats Hamilton again. His race pace is consistently as good and sometimes better than Lewis’ and he will be able eke more performance out of the tyres.

    I think what will be crucial is the start though. If any of the McLaren’s get stuck behind Schumi’s Merc, then it could really hurt their race. But it’s not just the McLaren’s either. The Lotus’ are known for their decent starts, and we might just see Raikkonen and Grosjean get up in the mix, and with Vettel on hard tyres, he might get himself stuck behind a couple of cars into turn 1.

    What interests me the most is with the softer compounds compared to last year, will we see some drivers having to do 4 stops? Webber had to make a 4th stop last year at Malaysia, and that could be key in this race, which makes me think that Button, although he is second, might just go on to win the second race of the season.

    Reply
    • Avatar Image

      Theoddkiwi (@theoddkiwi) said on 25th March 2012, 0:46

      I am still a little perplexed why everyone thinks that Hamilton can’t manage his tyres. Many of the times he has worn out his tyres quickly is because he has been following another car and trying to race them. See Monza when he was pushing Michael for many laps, same as Melbourne last week. His tyres didnt go off that much earlier than Buttons just that he had to stay out a lap longer due to the pitstop system Mclaren have.

      I still dont see any hard evidence. Tyre wear depends on many things and position on track and trying to attck to defend will always use up tyre wear. Lewis had to do that allot last year, while Button a bit less so.

      Reply

  9. OOliver said on 24th March 2012, 21:57

    I hope Williams can score some points.
    The mid field is ultra competitive any missed opportunities can be very costly.
    Those 8 points lost can be the difference between finishing 6th and finishing 9th.

    Reply
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    wigster (@wigster) said on 24th March 2012, 22:32

    I think Vettels first stint, starting on hards will either be brilliant or disastrous.

    If he gets off the line well, manages to hold position and the speed deficit to the cars on mediums isn’t too large he may well have made a good call and be challenging for the win.

    However with the likes of Rosberg, Grosjean and Raikkonen behind him, if he gets a bad start or the speed of the hards leaves him vulnerable for the first couple of laps he could find himself in 8th or 9th and have a very long race given the low top speed of the Red Bull and iffy Kers which often goes on the blink.

    In front of him, and possibly including him given how close qualy was who wins the race could well come down to good pit stop strategy rather then who’s the fastest. If it stays dry I’m expecting 3 stops each, and if it rains its anyones guess how many stops there’ll be.

    If I have to stick my neck on the line I’d go for Hamilton for the win, though the only thing I’m confident of is that the winner won’t be driving a Ferrari!

    Reply
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    AndrewTanner (@andrewtanner) said on 24th March 2012, 22:36

    Shaping up to be a good one this! I REALLY hope Schumacher can do something spectacular. I have every confidence he will have a good race.

    I wonder if Vettel’s choice to go with the harder tyre will help him if it rains tomorrow? I know track temperature will be very high but if it rains and they get chance to return to slick tyres, having the option of softer tyres available while the track is relatively cool from the rain may play into his hands quite well. It’s a long shot, but you never know.

    Reply
  12. Avatar Image

    Sergiu (@nofumbles) said on 24th March 2012, 22:37

    Quick question: I have no idea when the clock moves one hour later. So tomorrow the race will be at 09:00? London time. Thanks in advance.

    Reply

    • Gaz said on 24th March 2012, 23:29

      Clocks generally change at 1am I blieve, which means the race will be held at 9am london time tomorrow morning.

      Reply
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        M (@f1fanaticsince2011) said on 24th March 2012, 23:59

        Think it’s 2am not that it makes a difference, got the alarm set for 8:45 on my iPhone and planning to get as much sleep as possible in a couple of hours time. Hope I’m awake at the right time and the race is as exciting as I expect!

        Reply
    • Avatar Image

      SimBri (@f1addict) said on 25th March 2012, 0:35

      Thanks for posting this comment – I’d completely forgotten but just wanted one last look at this site before going to sleep! Now I’m not sure if my phone alarm will change automatically :/

      Reply
    • Avatar Image

      Sergiu (@nofumbles) said on 25th March 2012, 0:49

      I’m so confused right now lol. So what’s the official hour right now? My phone says it’s 00:48. Is it correct? So in 12 minutes from now it will be 00:00?

      Reply
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