Who will win the 2012 championships?

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Fernando Alonso, Ferrari, Hungaroring, 2012F1 is set for a frenetic end to the season with nine races crammed into 13 weekends.

These races will decide the outcome of the world championships, currently led by Fernando Alonso and Red Bull.

Both have some rapid rivals behind them who are getting within striking range. Can they hold on to claim the titles – or will there be more changes at the top before the year is out?

Drivers’ championship

After 11 races last year Sebastian Vettel held an 85-point lead in the drivers’ championship over Mark Webber.

Alonso’s advantage is less than half that at the same stage this year. He has a 40-point margin over second place which once again is occupied by Webber. There is a maximum of 225 points available over the remaining races.

This chart shows drivers? scores throughout the season. Use the controls below to show/hide different drivers:

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/charts/2012drivercolours.csv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Fernando Alonso 10 35 37 43 61 76 86 111 129 154 164
Mark Webber 12 24 36 48 48 73 79 91 116 120 124
Sebastian Vettel 18 18 28 53 61 73 85 85 100 110 122
Lewis Hamilton 15 30 45 49 53 63 88 88 92 92 117
Kimi Raikkonen 6 16 16 34 49 51 55 73 83 98 116
Nico Rosberg 0 0 25 35 41 59 67 75 75 76 77
Jenson Button 25 25 43 43 45 45 45 49 50 68 76
Romain Grosjean 0 0 8 23 35 35 53 53 61 61 76
Sergio Perez 4 22 22 22 22 22 37 39 39 47 47
Kamui Kobayashi 8 8 9 9 19 19 21 21 21 33 33
Pastor Maldonado 0 0 4 4 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Michael Schumacher 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 17 23 29 29
Paul di Resta 1 7 7 15 15 21 21 27 27 27 27
Felipe Massa 0 0 0 2 2 10 11 11 23 23 25
Bruno Senna 0 8 14 14 14 15 15 16 18 18 24
Nico Hulkenberg 0 2 2 2 3 7 7 17 17 19 19
Jean-Eric Vergne 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Daniel Ricciardo 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Heikki Kovalainen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Vitaly Petrov 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Timo Glock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Charles Pic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Narain Karthikeyan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pedro de la Rosa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fernando Alonso

164 points

Alonso has rarely failed to get the most out of the Ferrari. Since the beginning of the European season the F2012 is much-improved and, though still not the fastest car, is a strong all-rounder. The well-drilled Ferrari team have turned out some excellent pit stops.

But if one of his better-equipped rivals emerges from the pack as a consistent challenger, he may yet be kept from a third world championship.

Mark Webber

124 points (-40)

When the season began, just 11% of readers tipped Webber to out-score Vettel. He has done so far but in recent races the momentum has been with his team mate.

Sebastian Vettel

Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Valencia, 2012122 points (-42)

Unlucky not to win in Valencia and doubly so that Alonso picked up the victory. But his car remains more than a match for the Ferrari on pure pace and gives him the chance to grind down Alonso’s lead in the coming races.

Lewis Hamilton

117 points (-47)

Winning in Hungary was a vital boost to his championship credentials. Like Vettel, he will need to score consistently better than Alonso in the coming races to get back in the hunt, but that’s not always been a feature of his title campaigns.

Kimi Raikkonen

116 points (-48)

The 2007 champion is a fascinating dark horse in the title race. There is much expectation that Lotus, armed with their new double DRS, will finally come good this weekend and deliver their overdue first win of 2012. That and the E20’s kindness to its tyres could prove significant weapons in Raikkonen’s arsenal.

Who will win the 2012 F1 drivers’ title?

Who will win the 2012 F1 drivers' title?

  • Fernando Alonso (49%)
  • Mark Webber (7%)
  • Sebastian Vettel (9%)
  • Lewis Hamilton (21%)
  • Kimi Raikkonen (15%)
  • Someone else (0%)

Total Voters: 379

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Constructors’ championship

Red Bull hold a 53-point lead in the teams’ title race with 387 still to be won.

This chart shows teams? scores throughout the season. Use the controls below to show/hide different teams.

Teams chart

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/charts/2012teamcolours.csv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Red Bull 30 42 64 101 109 146 164 176 216 230 246
McLaren 40 55 88 92 98 108 133 137 142 160 193
Lotus 6 16 24 57 84 86 108 126 144 159 192
Ferrari 10 35 37 45 63 86 97 122 152 177 189
Mercedes 0 1 26 37 43 61 69 92 98 105 106
Sauber 12 30 31 31 41 41 58 60 60 80 80
Williams 0 8 18 18 43 44 44 45 47 47 53
Force India 1 9 9 17 18 28 28 44 44 46 46
Toro Rosso 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Caterham 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Marussia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HRT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Red Bull

246 points

Red Bull’s situation in the constructors’ championship is akin to Alonso’s in the drivers’ title race. They have a healthy lead but not enough to relax and they could do with their closest rivals takings points off each other in the coming races.

Their key strength is that both drivers have been consistently scoring decent points, with just three no-scores between them.

McLaren

Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, Montreal, 2012193 points (-53)

It’s 14 years since McLaren last won the constructors’ championship and you sense they are aching to end that streak. Especially as they’ve been second on seven occasions in that time (and not forgetting 2007 as well).

Going into the summer break McLaren had sorted out their pit stop problems and made a major performance gain with their last upgrade. If they return to action as competitive as they were at the end of July, with Jenson Button seemingly recovered from his early-season slump, they should be Red Bull’s closest challengers.

Lotus

192 points (-54)

Lotus have done everything but win a race so far this year – they’ve even had both drivers on the podium on two separate occasions. Third place is already in excess of their pre-season aims, but that’s not going to stop them aiming even higher.

Ferrari

189 points (-57)

Ferrari are fourth in the constructors’ championship while Alonso leads the drivers’ title. That is a credit to Alonso’s driving and a damning indictment of Felipe Massa’s.

If Massa can increase his contribution to their points tally (currently just 13%) they should make progress. It may even save his place at the team for next year, though it’s hard to believe it isn’t already too late for that.

Who will win the 2012 F1 constructors’ title?

Who will win the 2012 F1 constructors' title?

  • Red Bull (73%)
  • McLaren (15%)
  • Lotus (10%)
  • Ferrari (2%)
  • Someone else (0%)

Total Voters: 324

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Images ?? Ferrari spa/Ercole Colombo, Red Bull/Getty images, McLaren/Hoch Zwei

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131 comments on Who will win the 2012 championships?

  1. Colossal Squid (@colossal-squid) said on 27th August 2012, 18:18

    I said after Australia that Hamilton would win the championship and I still believe that today. He’s been driving brilliantly, and the McLaren is back on form. I think Hamilton is in the position to start to dominate the second half of the season a little bit. If he starts doing what he did in 2010 – stringing together podiums with a few wins – he’ll have Alonso within his sights by the last few races of the season.

    I want Alonso to win, and I believe he’s the best driver right now, but Hamilton and McLaren are looking too strong and too confident to ignore. As for Kimi, unfortunately I don’t think he’ll get that breakthrough win this year, while Vettel and Webber will have a continuation of fortunes from the first half of the season – good but not enough to take it all.

  2. Most people are thinking(some are even hoping) that Alonso’s 40 point lead will be erased quickly. They are forgetting that the Ferrari is very strong now, and that Alonso has been there done that- he has previously won championships while being ahead, and not chasing it. His recent poor weekends have been as bad as fifth. Also, I think that neither McLaren nor RBR will be able to rise so far above the other cars so as to overhaul Alonso’s lead. Lotus have a good chance to do that with their “the device” but they aren’t a team with the experience or expertise to win. I think it is Alonso’s to lose.

  3. wasiF1 (@wasif1) said on 27th August 2012, 18:19

    I think it’s Alonso & Ferrari’s WC to loose as far the DWC is concern & with recent form I think may be Lotus grab up the CWC.

  4. xeroxpt (@) said on 27th August 2012, 19:11

    I was one of the 11%, that will probably regret their choice before the end of the season.

  5. James (@jamesf1) said on 27th August 2012, 19:23

    I tihnk it’s fair to say that it’s only the current top 5 that will challenge for the title. Jenson is surely out of it now, Grosjean and Rosberg shouldnt really be fancying their chances either realistically.

    I would expect it to be Alonso. He’s a brute force this year. He’s led the title more times than any other this season (which counts for nothing, I know) and just seems to be having the time of his life at the moment. If it isnt Alonso, I just wonder if Kimi has what it takes to slip in at the last. He’ll need a couple of race wins to boost his chances and give the title any credibility, but we know he has what it takes. The question remains is does the car? I think Belgium will be indicative of things to come.

    As for the constructors, I cant see Red Bull chucking this one away. It could happen. Mclaren appear to be getting back to grips with their car and Lotus are scoring big points. Ferrari havent a hope in hell of the title this year given that only one of their drivers as actually contributing anything noteworthy. They need to drop Massa, cut their loses and get another driver to grips with the team and car before next season. I’m sure Perez has his phone on, go on Luca and Stefanio, you’ve nothing to lose…

  6. Guccio (@concalvez00) said on 27th August 2012, 19:46

    It will be Hamilton and Raikonen who will battle it out simply because these two has the most skill of the grid, Alonso is not that great as people seems to think, Alonso has been lucky the whole first half

  7. Nickpkr said on 27th August 2012, 21:36

    Sorry but Hamilton is not renewing with Mclaren deadline is been reach, in which case button gets to call the shots on development and setup and therefore frustrated Hamilton will get his crashing title back from Maldonado, wish Kimi second but tough call with webber vettel. Alonso will win if Sauber, mercedes and Williams take a few big points from them. Or maybe I’m wrong a Button really wins 5 of 9 !

    • bosyber (@bosyber) said on 28th August 2012, 8:46

      McLaren want the WDC & WCC this year if they can. While they are still in the fight they won’t want to jeopardize that, it’s too much money and prestige for them to just think to just wait and hope for next year, that’s not how the team works.

      And remember, in HAM’s current contract he still has to leave the trophies with McLaren ;-)

  8. Alonso in great position but emphasis should be IMO on the car. If Ferrari is 4th fastest Alonso cannot win. Want anybody but Vettel to win.

  9. F1Rollout (@f1rollout) said on 27th August 2012, 21:57

    Its simple. It will be 2007 all over again..The three greats will fight it out between themselves…

    Why not Webber:
    Webbers championship will come to a end as the teams leave Monza because he has always performed bad at Spa and Monza . Secondly Redbull will now start focusing solely on Vettel.

    Why not Vettel:
    Vettel is not fighting only Alonso and Hamilton this time. He has to deal with Raikkonen as well. I dont rate Button and Webber highly.Both are ordinary drivers placed in good cars. Secondly Redbull is not the fastest car.

    Why Hamilton:
    I think Mclaren will be the best car of the second half and Lotus there abouts. Hamilton can use it to the best affect.

    Why Raikkonen:
    He has been the most consistant of all secondly he is one with strongest head and racecraft,

    Why Alonso:
    He wont give up no matter how bad the car performs .

    My assumption is that the Mclaren will be the clear fastest car of the 2nd half. If the Redbull is fastest, Vettel will win the championship no matter whats other do..

  10. Carlito's way said on 27th August 2012, 23:38

    If Alonso wins the championship this year it guarantees his name among the greatest ever drivers. Not just because it would be his third world championship but because of the manner with which he will have achieved. Driving not the best car on the grid, extracting the absolute maximum of the car, team and himself.

    • melkurion (@melkurion) said on 28th August 2012, 15:30

      I agree with this, I am seriously not an Alonso fan, but I have to respect his driving, and if he does win the title this year, with a clearky inferior car, it will go down in the books as one of the greatest achievments. Best comparison I can think of is prost in …86? When Mnsel and Piquet in the wiliams were clearly faster, but he still took the title. And that wa sonly against 2 better cars, the Williams’, Alonso will have beaten 3 superior teams! if he pulls it of

  11. Kimi4WDC said on 28th August 2012, 0:05

    Thing about Lotus, is not just that Super-DRS, they already had a quick car prior to that. They just didn’t get the weekend right to get a win. Would be interesting to see how big the advantage will be(if any) when they get the weekend right and benefit from Super-DRS.

  12. kbcusa (@kbcusa) said on 28th August 2012, 0:57

    No reason to suspect Alonso will falter in the second half. The constructors is the one to watch because both McLaren and Lotus are close enough to Red Bull to pull it off, and both are showing the form to be in the hunt. But having said that, I don’t see Red Bull stubbing their toes either, so they will likely win it. Ferrari, of course, is out of the constructors since they only have 1 1/2 drivers.

  13. JUGNU (@jugnu) said on 28th August 2012, 10:12

    I think at the moment Alonso is favorite but Lewis is in such good form and Mclaren have improved and showed good pace in the last 2 races. So Mclaren’s on the right track development wise for the rest of the year. I would say it is 60-40 between Alonso and Hamilton but i have a feeling Hamilton will win more races this year and will take the title.

  14. magon4 (@magon4) said on 28th August 2012, 10:19

    It’s incredible how many times Sebastian Vettel has to prove himself to be considered one of the all time greats. And I really hope when he wins his thrid title in a row, already being the youngest champions and two-time champion, and thus finishing another season in the Top 2 since joining Red Bull racing, people will finally stop saying that it was due to the car.
    It will be Vettel, and still he won’t get the recognition he deserves. It should be recognition enough beating Hamilton and Alonso in a season like this.

  15. AndrewTanner (@andrewtanner) said on 28th August 2012, 13:08

    The constructors is a an easy way. There is no stronger team effort than that of Red Bull. They score consistently and rarely succumb to reliability issues.

    The drivers is a little harder but I’m going to go with Alonso. He’s managed to both score big points when perhaps the pace wasn’t there and still bag points when it was. He’s the current championship leader with over half the season gone. There is no reason to doubt him and little reason to get excited about anyone else. Hamilton will make it hard for him, he looked very good in Hungary and Germany but something tells me Ferrari will manage to keep a cooler head and Hamilton may have his proverbial rear-view mirrors full of Red Bull.

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