Who will win the 2012 championships?

Debates and polls

Fernando Alonso, Ferrari, Hungaroring, 2012F1 is set for a frenetic end to the season with nine races crammed into 13 weekends.

These races will decide the outcome of the world championships, currently led by Fernando Alonso and Red Bull.

Both have some rapid rivals behind them who are getting within striking range. Can they hold on to claim the titles – or will there be more changes at the top before the year is out?

Drivers’ championship

After 11 races last year Sebastian Vettel held an 85-point lead in the drivers’ championship over Mark Webber.

Alonso’s advantage is less than half that at the same stage this year. He has a 40-point margin over second place which once again is occupied by Webber. There is a maximum of 225 points available over the remaining races.

This chart shows drivers? scores throughout the season. Use the controls below to show/hide different drivers:

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/charts/2012drivercolours.csv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Fernando Alonso 10 35 37 43 61 76 86 111 129 154 164
Mark Webber 12 24 36 48 48 73 79 91 116 120 124
Sebastian Vettel 18 18 28 53 61 73 85 85 100 110 122
Lewis Hamilton 15 30 45 49 53 63 88 88 92 92 117
Kimi Raikkonen 6 16 16 34 49 51 55 73 83 98 116
Nico Rosberg 0 0 25 35 41 59 67 75 75 76 77
Jenson Button 25 25 43 43 45 45 45 49 50 68 76
Romain Grosjean 0 0 8 23 35 35 53 53 61 61 76
Sergio Perez 4 22 22 22 22 22 37 39 39 47 47
Kamui Kobayashi 8 8 9 9 19 19 21 21 21 33 33
Pastor Maldonado 0 0 4 4 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Michael Schumacher 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 17 23 29 29
Paul di Resta 1 7 7 15 15 21 21 27 27 27 27
Felipe Massa 0 0 0 2 2 10 11 11 23 23 25
Bruno Senna 0 8 14 14 14 15 15 16 18 18 24
Nico Hulkenberg 0 2 2 2 3 7 7 17 17 19 19
Jean-Eric Vergne 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Daniel Ricciardo 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Heikki Kovalainen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Vitaly Petrov 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Timo Glock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Charles Pic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Narain Karthikeyan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pedro de la Rosa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fernando Alonso

164 points

Alonso has rarely failed to get the most out of the Ferrari. Since the beginning of the European season the F2012 is much-improved and, though still not the fastest car, is a strong all-rounder. The well-drilled Ferrari team have turned out some excellent pit stops.

But if one of his better-equipped rivals emerges from the pack as a consistent challenger, he may yet be kept from a third world championship.

Mark Webber

124 points (-40)

When the season began, just 11% of readers tipped Webber to out-score Vettel. He has done so far but in recent races the momentum has been with his team mate.

Sebastian Vettel

Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Valencia, 2012122 points (-42)

Unlucky not to win in Valencia and doubly so that Alonso picked up the victory. But his car remains more than a match for the Ferrari on pure pace and gives him the chance to grind down Alonso’s lead in the coming races.

Lewis Hamilton

117 points (-47)

Winning in Hungary was a vital boost to his championship credentials. Like Vettel, he will need to score consistently better than Alonso in the coming races to get back in the hunt, but that’s not always been a feature of his title campaigns.

Kimi Raikkonen

116 points (-48)

The 2007 champion is a fascinating dark horse in the title race. There is much expectation that Lotus, armed with their new double DRS, will finally come good this weekend and deliver their overdue first win of 2012. That and the E20′s kindness to its tyres could prove significant weapons in Raikkonen’s arsenal.

Who will win the 2012 F1 drivers’ title?

Who will win the 2012 F1 drivers' title?

  • Fernando Alonso (49%)
  • Mark Webber (7%)
  • Sebastian Vettel (9%)
  • Lewis Hamilton (21%)
  • Kimi Raikkonen (15%)
  • Someone else (0%)

Total Voters: 379

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Constructors’ championship

Red Bull hold a 53-point lead in the teams’ title race with 387 still to be won.

This chart shows teams? scores throughout the season. Use the controls below to show/hide different teams.

Teams chart

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/charts/2012teamcolours.csv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Red Bull 30 42 64 101 109 146 164 176 216 230 246
McLaren 40 55 88 92 98 108 133 137 142 160 193
Lotus 6 16 24 57 84 86 108 126 144 159 192
Ferrari 10 35 37 45 63 86 97 122 152 177 189
Mercedes 0 1 26 37 43 61 69 92 98 105 106
Sauber 12 30 31 31 41 41 58 60 60 80 80
Williams 0 8 18 18 43 44 44 45 47 47 53
Force India 1 9 9 17 18 28 28 44 44 46 46
Toro Rosso 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Caterham 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Marussia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HRT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Red Bull

246 points

Red Bull’s situation in the constructors’ championship is akin to Alonso’s in the drivers’ title race. They have a healthy lead but not enough to relax and they could do with their closest rivals takings points off each other in the coming races.

Their key strength is that both drivers have been consistently scoring decent points, with just three no-scores between them.

McLaren

Lewis Hamilton, McLaren, Montreal, 2012193 points (-53)

It’s 14 years since McLaren last won the constructors’ championship and you sense they are aching to end that streak. Especially as they’ve been second on seven occasions in that time (and not forgetting 2007 as well).

Going into the summer break McLaren had sorted out their pit stop problems and made a major performance gain with their last upgrade. If they return to action as competitive as they were at the end of July, with Jenson Button seemingly recovered from his early-season slump, they should be Red Bull’s closest challengers.

Lotus

192 points (-54)

Lotus have done everything but win a race so far this year – they’ve even had both drivers on the podium on two separate occasions. Third place is already in excess of their pre-season aims, but that’s not going to stop them aiming even higher.

Ferrari

189 points (-57)

Ferrari are fourth in the constructors’ championship while Alonso leads the drivers’ title. That is a credit to Alonso’s driving and a damning indictment of Felipe Massa’s.

If Massa can increase his contribution to their points tally (currently just 13%) they should make progress. It may even save his place at the team for next year, though it’s hard to believe it isn’t already too late for that.

Who will win the 2012 F1 constructors’ title?

Who will win the 2012 F1 constructors' title?

  • Red Bull (73%)
  • McLaren (15%)
  • Lotus (10%)
  • Ferrari (2%)
  • Someone else (0%)

Total Voters: 324

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Debates and polls

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Images ?? Ferrari spa/Ercole Colombo, Red Bull/Getty images, McLaren/Hoch Zwei

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131 comments on Who will win the 2012 championships?

  1. The drivers champioship is going to be a dramatic last race thriller
    If lotus can keep up the development, raikkonen is a dark horse
    but my gut feeling is that alonso is going to win this year, and why not he is the best driver and usually the best athlete in sport wins
    as for the WDC its a no brainer that Red Bull will win it
    the other top teams lack an inconsistent 2nd driver
    eg massa,button and grosjean whereas redbull have 2 consistent drivers webber and vettel

  2. tmekt (@tmekt) said on 28th August 2012, 20:51

    It can be anyone in the top five.

    If I had to bet my money on something, I’d bet it for Alonso not winning the WDC. 3 out of 4 wins, what’s been the common factor with Alonso’s victories (either in Q3 or R)? Rain. Is it likely that it’s gonna rain in most of the 9 races left? No. Ferrari might be the weakest car in the top four (impossible to tell for sure) and, if so, it will be difficult for Alonso to hold up for much longer.

  3. William Brierty said on 28th August 2012, 22:38

    I have no idea why everyone is harping on about Hamilton and the championship this year. He won the last race. McLaren looked fast at the last race. That’s it. Adrian Newey and Pat Fry have had five weeks to scratch their heads, so don’t be surprised if Red Bull or Ferrari rock up at Spa as the fastest team. Because the development race has been so chaotic this year, the driver that can score highly without the fastest car, Alonso, will enter the final phase of the year with an advantage. When I refer to the final stage of the year, I mean the end of the development race when the fastest car finally emerges while the teams start on the 2013 cars. I suspect that car will be the Red Bull (it was in ’09, ’10, ’11) but by then I suspect that Alonso will be out of reach in the WDC.

  4. F1Yankee (@f1yankee) said on 29th August 2012, 0:02

    i think fernando will do it, by a slim margin. red bull will take the constructors’, not so slim margin for them

  5. Fixy (@fixy) said on 29th August 2012, 16:58

    I voted Vettel, although I hope Alonso, beacuse he is in the best car and has proven he can win titles.

  6. KeeleyObsessed (@keeleyobsessed) said on 29th August 2012, 21:12

    I always like to support the underdogs.. So Raikkonen for me is the guy I want to win..
    But having said that, I don’t think he will.. Not this year, anyway.. 2013 looks like Raikkonen’s year if Lotus can replicate the kind of performance we’ve seen from the E20.. I’d be hard pushed to say anyone other than Alonso at the moment, the way he’s handled this year, considering how close it’s been and how bad that Ferrari started off as, is just incredible.. Malaysia could be one of those races people talk about as realising how impressive Alonso and Ferrari can be…

  7. Wooolfy said on 30th August 2012, 10:18

    I believe that Lewis will win as McLaren will furnish him with the development needed in the 2nd half of 2012. McLaren had the problem earlier and still has, that of solving Jenson’s ‘no grip’ tire woos and this hampered their developing the car. It wasn’t until the car was obviously slow for, both drivers, in the European and Brithish rounds, that they realised that solving Jenson’s issue isn’t going to make the car faster, hence their gains in Germany and Hungary. Meanwhile, the other constructors were full steam on development. Mclaren will out develop and gain more till the end of 2012, than the others. It will be Lewis’ WDC.

  8. Nickpkr said on 30th August 2012, 18:50

    Realistically most need to win two races to get even with Alonso, and then one more to compensate for Alonso’s same 3 races, where he has to score not many points to make this work.
    If Alonso wins one more then they need a fourth one, or just about a third or half of remaining points, who can do this ? Most achieve 2 wins in more than half season I can’t see nobody winning more than 2 of remaining races. For Button group is winning 4 races so even less likely.
    What I see is a fierce and more interesting WCC but I guess Ferrari can settle WDC then.

  9. PJA (@pja) said on 31st August 2012, 14:13

    I voted for Alonso and Red Bull.

    F1 Racing magazine has been doing a poll like this after every race since earlier on in the season and I have always voted Alonso for the WDC and Red Bull for the WCC there and nothing has happened to change my mind.

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