Threat of rain promises a tense title showdown

2012 Brazilian Grand Prix pre-race analysis

Fernando Alonso, Sebastian Vettel, Interlagos, 2012The championship-deciding Brazilian Grand Prix has the makings of a classic.

With the two title contenders starting outside the top three, the threat of rain and a track which produces drama, the 2012 season finale could prove a memorable contest.

While Sebastian Vettel insists he will approach this race like any other, it is Fernando Alonso who truly has nothing to lose as he strives to beat Vettel in the race to become the sport’s next thrice-champion.

For McLaren the race offers a chance to end the season on a high, for Hamilton to go out with a victory, and for them to take second in the constructors’ championship from Ferrari.

The weather

The cool front arrived as expected today but its effect on qualifying was confined to a shower before Q1. It appears likely the race will be affected by rain in some form, but that could be anything from occasional showers to a full-on downpour.

For Alonso the prospect of rain amplifies his opportunities in the race: “I think I did a good qualifying and, given how the last few races have gone, my chances of making it to the podium are still intact,” he said.

“That will be my objective because I know that, at least under normal circumstances, we are not in with a chance of fighting for the win. I also know that, if I am to have any hopes for the title, it?s more plausible to count on a retirement for Vettel rather than for him to finish in a position where I can get ahead of him in the classification.

“Obviously, I am therefore hoping for a chaotic race and so the rain could be an important factor even if, in the wet, it is riskier for everyone.”

Hamilton is also conscious of the pitfalls that come along with wet weather: “If it?s wet, the lead car is the always the first to aquaplane or hit the puddles, so, even if we both get good starts, we?ll still need to be cautious. Equally, however, I don?t want to drop back at the start because it would then be very difficult to see in all the spray.”

The start

Felipe Massa, Ferrari, Interlagos, 2012From a standing start, the race through the first corners at Interlagos can be one of the most exciting of the season. The switchback Senna S and the blast down Reta Oposta provide plenty of opportunities for passing, and the action often goes on into Ferradura on lap one.

One significant change this year is the addition of a tarmac run-off on the outside of the Senna S, giving room for driers to take avoiding action while losing little time.

The short lap also means the leaders have little time to pull away before those chasing them can start using DRS.

This all assumes a dry or damp start to the race. If race control is concerned a wet surface may pose too many visibility problems for a standing start, the race will begin behind the safety car.

For the title contenders the opening laps will be about making as much ground as possible while staying out of trouble. Vettel will be especially anxious not to fall behind Massa or – worse – a fast-starting Alonso.

There’s always a special paranoia for a driver when dicing with a championship rival’s team mate – Michael Schumacher picked up a puncture while overtaking Fernando Alonso’s team mate at this track six years ago.

The top nine drivers on the grid plus Pastor Maldonado will all start on the medium tyres they qualified on, unless of course the start is declared wet, in which case they and everyone else may start on one of the two types of wet-weather tyre. If the track is wet enough for the race to start behind the safety car, all drivers will have to start on ‘full’ wet weather tyres rather than intermediates.

Strategy

Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Interlagos, 2012Whatever the weather brings on Sunday it is unlikely to be a repeat of the dry, hot conditions the track saw on Friday when the teams did their race-fuel running, so that data is likely to be unhelpful.

The medium tyre is in the order of one second per lap faster than the hard, so expect that to be the preferred tyre if the race begins in dry conditions.

Those not obliged to start on it will most likely pick it anyway if they expect it’s going to rain, because once they switch to intermediate or wet-weather tyres they no longer have to use both dry compounds, so the requirement to use the less favourable tyre no longer applies.

One obstacle to Alonso’s progress has already been removed with Maldonado getting a ten-place grid penalty. He will also have to find a way past Nico Hulkenberg early on, and the Force India has had good pace this weekend.

Hulkenberg has also adjusted his car in anticipation of a wet race: “For tomorrow we are in good shape: I?ve got quite a neutral set-up so we can cope with whatever weather we get.”

But Alonso will also have to watch out for attacks from behind. Kimi Raikkonen tends to be quicker in the races than in qualifying and lines up right behind him. And Sergio Perez, 12th, may also prove a threat if the race is hit by rain.

Besides his other rivals, Vettel will be concerned by his car’s reliability. An alternator problem ended Mark Webber’s race early in America, and the team are running new parts in a bid to avoid a repeat here.

Maldonado has fallen to 16th, two places ahead of Romain Grosjean, meaning two of this year’s more collision-prone drivers find themselves near the back of the grid and looking to make up ground early in the race.

How the championship can be decided

Here is how the world championship can be won by Vettel or Alonso in the race:

Qualifying times in full

Driver Car Q1 Q2 (vs Q1) Q3 (vs Q2)
1 Lewis Hamilton McLaren 1’15.075 1’13.398 (-1.677) 1’12.458 (-0.940)
2 Jenson Button McLaren 1’15.456 1’13.515 (-1.941) 1’12.513 (-1.002)
3 Mark Webber Red Bull 1’16.180 1’13.667 (-2.513) 1’12.581 (-1.086)
4 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 1’15.644 1’13.209 (-2.435) 1’12.760 (-0.449)
5 Felipe Massa Ferrari 1’16.263 1’14.048 (-2.215) 1’12.987 (-1.061)
6 Nico Hulkenberg Force India 1’15.536 1’13.704 (-1.832) 1’13.206 (-0.498)
7 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 1’16.097 1’13.856 (-2.241) 1’13.253 (-0.603)
8 Kimi Raikkonen Lotus 1’16.432 1’13.698 (-2.734) 1’13.298 (-0.400)
9 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1’15.929 1’13.848 (-2.081) 1’13.489 (-0.359)
10 Paul di Resta Force India 1’15.901 1’14.121 (-1.780)
11 Bruno Senna Williams 1’15.333 1’14.219 (-1.114)
12 Sergio Perez Sauber 1’15.974 1’14.234 (-1.740)
13 Michael Schumacher Mercedes 1’16.005 1’14.334 (-1.671)
14 Kamui Kobayashi Sauber 1’16.400 1’14.380 (-2.020)
15 Daniel Ricciardo Toro Rosso 1’16.744 1’14.574 (-2.170)
16 Pastor Maldonado Williams 1’16.266 1’13.698 (-2.568) 1’13.174 (-0.524)
17 Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso 1’16.722 1’14.619 (-2.103)
18 Romain Grosjean Lotus 1’16.967
19 Vitaly Petrov Caterham 1’17.073
20 Heikki Kovalainen Caterham 1’17.086
21 Timo Glock Marussia 1’17.508
22 Charles Pic Marussia 1’18.104
23 Narain Karthikeyan HRT 1’19.576
24 Pedro de la Rosa HRT 1’19.699

Vettel did not find as much time between Q2 and Q3 as his closest rivals, but his Q2 lap was aided by gaining a slipstream from Massa’s car in front of him.

For the second race in a row Alonso was out-qualified by Massa, leading to speculation that he has a ‘wet set-up’ on his car, which he denied: “The car is not particularly set up for the wet, as it?s not like it used to be.”

Technical director Pay Fry explained the gap between the two drivers: “We did not give Fernando an equally good car in terms of balance and we will have to study the data to see how to improve the situation, within the bounds of possibility, for tomorrow?s race.”

However Michael Schumacher said setting his car up for wet conditions was partly why he will start his final race from the middle of the pack: “We might have compromised the car too much for the rain which is expected for tomorrow and was also forecast for qualifying.”

Sector times

Driver Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Lewis Hamilton 18.400 (2) 36.966 (2) 17.092 (1)
Jenson Button 18.391 (1) 37.004 (3) 17.118 (2)
Mark Webber 18.442 (3) 36.960 (1) 17.164 (6)
Sebastian Vettel 18.509 (4) 37.097 (4) 17.154 (4)
Felipe Massa 18.652 (8) 37.176 (5) 17.159 (5)
Nico Hulkenberg 18.643 (7) 37.318 (6) 17.199 (8)
Fernando Alonso 18.686 (10) 37.350 (8) 17.193 (7)
Kimi Raikkonen 18.659 (9) 37.335 (7) 17.289 (11)
Nico Rosberg 18.634 (6) 37.634 (10) 17.221 (9)
Paul di Resta 18.766 (13) 37.977 (12) 17.308 (12)
Bruno Senna 18.725 (11) 38.153 (15) 17.237 (10)
Sergio Perez 18.761 (12) 37.922 (11) 17.463 (17)
Michael Schumacher 18.850 (15) 38.066 (13) 17.376 (13)
Kamui Kobayashi 18.772 (14) 38.149 (14) 17.453 (16)
Daniel Ricciardo 18.938 (17) 38.160 (16) 17.389 (15)
Pastor Maldonado 18.579 (5) 37.458 (9) 17.134 (3)
Jean-Eric Vergne 18.857 (16) 38.382 (17) 17.380 (14)
Romain Grosjean 19.075 (20) 38.855 (18) 18.967 (20)
Vitaly Petrov 19.035 (18) 39.137 (19) 18.899 (19)
Heikki Kovalainen 19.054 (19) 39.221 (21) 18.811 (18)
Timo Glock 19.221 (21) 39.206 (20) 19.056 (21)
Charles Pic 19.301 (22) 39.456 (22) 19.286 (22)
Narain Karthikeyan 19.344 (23) 40.318 (24) 19.516 (23)
Pedro de la Rosa 19.683 (24) 40.108 (23) 19.828 (24)

Vettel admitted making a mistake on his first timed lap in Q3. With his second he needed to be a little conservative, but nonetheless set his three fastest sector times in that lap.

Speed trap

Pos Driver Car Speed (kph/mph) Gap
1 Lewis Hamilton McLaren 314.1 (195.2)
2 Jenson Button McLaren 313.8 (195.0) -0.3
3 Sergio Perez Sauber 313.8 (195.0) -0.3
4 Kamui Kobayashi Sauber 313.0 (194.5) -1.1
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 312.9 (194.4) -1.2
6 Michael Schumacher Mercedes 312.8 (194.4) -1.3
7 Pastor Maldonado Williams 312.4 (194.1) -1.7
8 Bruno Senna Williams 312.2 (194.0) -1.9
9 Paul di Resta Force India 311.4 (193.5) -2.7
10 Nico Hulkenberg Force India 311.2 (193.4) -2.9
11 Kimi Raikkonen Lotus 309.8 (192.5) -4.3
12 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 309.4 (192.3) -4.7
13 Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso 309.4 (192.3) -4.7
14 Felipe Massa Ferrari 309.1 (192.1) -5.0
15 Romain Grosjean Lotus 308.7 (191.8) -5.4
16 Heikki Kovalainen Caterham 307.8 (191.3) -6.3
17 Narain Karthikeyan HRT 307.7 (191.2) -6.4
18 Vitaly Petrov Caterham 307.5 (191.1) -6.6
19 Daniel Ricciardo Toro Rosso 304.7 (189.3) -9.4
20 Timo Glock Marussia 304.3 (189.1) -9.8
21 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 304.1 (189.0) -10.0
22 Mark Webber Red Bull 303.4 (188.5) -10.7
23 Charles Pic Marussia 303.1 (188.3) -11.0
24 Pedro de la Rosa HRT 295.5 (183.6) -18.6

Few team mates differs widely in straight-line speed, which tends to indicate when they are running different downforce levels in an attempt to second-guess the weather.

The McLaren drivers ran different downforce levels on Friday, but both Hamilton and Button have opted for the higher-downforce solution. However, in marked contrast to recent races, they are now at the top of the speed trap figures, which will make them tricky to pass in normal conditions.

Over to you

How do you think the race will unfold? And who will clinch the championship?

Share your views on the Brazilian Grand Prix in the comments.

2012 Brazilian Grand Prix

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Image ?? Red Bull/Getty images, Ferrari/Ercole Colombo, Red Bull/Getty images

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53 comments on Threat of rain promises a tense title showdown

  1. I’m hoping for lots of rain and one or two SCs to keep the championship exciting. Otherwise I fear it will be a dull way to decide the championsip

    • Jake (@jleigh) said on 24th November 2012, 23:05

      I just hope there isn’t so much rain we don’t reach 3/4 distance, that would be incredibly anti-climactic.

      • Jonny C (@loomx92) said on 24th November 2012, 23:35

        Just imagine if it didn’t make 3/4 distance with Alonso in the lead and Vettel out. What a nasty way to lose out on the championship that would be.

        • Jake (@jleigh) said on 24th November 2012, 23:49

          Imagine the radio conversation. Alonso would be continously saying conditions were fine, in the hope the race wouldn’t be stopped. Webber would no doubt be on the radio saying the race needs to be stopped. Then no doubt the second 3/4 distance is reached, Alonso will suddenly feel the conditions are no longer safe. I suspect Charlie Whiting will just ignore all radio calls regarding weather from either Ferrari or Red Bull

    • AndrewTanner (@andrewtanner) said on 25th November 2012, 12:33

      @timi I don’t see how the appearance of a SC can make it exciting. Sure, it closes the pack up but assuming that Vettel and Alonso don’t change their starting positions too much Vettel certainly won’t risk anything. It will still be wet and their tyres will be cold.

      • @andrewtanner “but assuming that Vettel and Alonso don’t change their starting positions too much” Why would you assume that? Vettel is starting fourth, Alonso seventh, and Massa fifth. I guess it just depends on the start.

        I expect to see MW slip behind SV, and for Massa to either slow down Hulkenberg, or if fast enough, attempt to overtake SV/MW depending on how decent a start he gets.

        But anyway, I think the SC would help, because as you say, assuming vettel and alonso dont change their starting positions too much, the championship finale will be a hell of a bore, but, say 35 laps in, with alonso 30sec behind the next car, a SC could work miracles.

        Hmm, examples of how the SC appearance has made a race exciting:

        Button in Canada 2011 (granted there was a race stoppage and 6 SCs haha)
        2012 European GP, Vettel was leading by 20seconds, SC comes out, after going in, Alonso gains a place by overtaking Grosjean to lead the race. (granted it was a dry race)

        Not the greatest examples to help me haha but my overall point is partly stated by you Andrew.; “It will still be wet and their tyres will be cold.” A bunched up field, cold tyres, and a wet track should be more exciting than just cold tyres and a wet track..

  2. Prisoner Monkeys (@prisoner-monkeys) said on 24th November 2012, 23:01

    Somehow, I don’t think there’s going to be any tension in the title fight at all. Rather, Vettel will simply mark Alonso for the entire race and become World Champion.

  3. Jake (@jleigh) said on 24th November 2012, 23:04

    If it’s a standing start I wouldn’t be surprised if Massa passes Vettel and Alonso passes Hulkenburg off the line, putting Alonso right behind Vettel. If Alonso then passes Vettel (perhaps with Massa’s help) I’m sure it won’t be long before he’s past Massa. I just get a feeling the championship is certainly not a foregone conclusion.

  4. KaIIe (@kaiie) said on 24th November 2012, 23:09

    As much as I’m excited about this race, I have a bad feeling about it being overhyped. Worst case scenario: two McLarens drive away from the rest slowly but surely, followed by the Red Bulls with Alonso around 5th place without nothing dramatic happening.

  5. HoHum (@hohum) said on 24th November 2012, 23:26

    If he gets a good start , big “IF”, and the race stays dry I expect it will be Mark Webber chasing down the McLarens while Vettel looks for a comfortable gap, ideally behind Webber and some seconds ahead of the next runner. RBR will be happy if the 2 McLarens and Webber fill the podium ensuring that Seb wins the title even if he fails to finish the race. Seb being a racer and not wanting to rely solely on his team mate will wan’t to stay in touch with the leaders in case Webber or the McLarens have a problem but will not want to stress his motor or alternator nor get into any argie-bargie with wannabe heroes neither will he want to risk ” going off” if it starts to rain, if there is a safety car he will have to take care not to let the monotony shut his brain down as it has in the past. Should be fun for all of you who can watch it, enjoy.

  6. Traverse Mark Senior (@) said on 25th November 2012, 0:05

    Alonso has to turn tomorrow’s race into a bloodsport if he’s going to snag the WDC. It’s sudden death and being the slightest bit tentative will only hinder Alonso’s chances, he’ll have to take maximum risk and give Vettel nowhere to run. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, Vettel will prove a hard target to catch, let alone beat.

    Hopefully Alonso will come out throwing knockout blows like a kickboxer, as now isn’t the time to hesitate. This is the quest for the coveted 3rd WDC and no retreat, no surrender is the best tactic to employ for today’s epic showdown. The race will be nail biting, with both drivers hoping that their rival is derailed one way or another…maybe their team mates will play a part? And if that’s the case, it’ll be a street fighter style match up, the double team of Alonso and Massa Vs the double impact that is Vettel and Webber . Who will have the sonic boom finish to their season and bag that 3rd title, that historic 3rd strike? It’s a tough one to call, you’d need some kind of psycho power to tell.

    My brain says Vettel will win it, but my heart wants Alonso to get it. Either way, an inferno will ensue when the race starts and I for one can’t wait!

  7. Colossal Squid (@colossal-squid) said on 25th November 2012, 0:07

    I remember before the lights went out in 2008; the excited, tense butterflies-in-the stomach feeling. No doubt before the race tomorrow that feeling will return, I just hope that like in 2008 there’s plenty of drama until the chequered flag!

  8. The Last Pope (@the-last-pope) said on 25th November 2012, 2:19

    How worried would Redbull be of Massa at the start? If he is in a position to overtake Vettel at the first corners he could be very aggressive, not necessarily looking for contact but certainly increasing the possibility for incident. Where is the line drawn between team orders aggressive driving, and cheating? (Schumacher 1997)

    • AndrewTanner (@andrewtanner) said on 25th November 2012, 12:40

      @the-last-pope You can be certain the stewards would take a dim view of it, like they did at Spa when Grosjean ‘interfered’ with the various championship contenders race (not that I agree with that sentiment). Unfortunately I think the best the FIA could do would be to penalise Ferrari as a constructor rather than Alonso as a driver. I doubt they would do something so stupid, especially in Brazil when they’ve already said they’re not even going to crack open a new gearbox for Massa.

      • I have a funny feeling that Ferrari is in a compromised position here… if Massa and Vettel have a completely normal start of the race incident and if Vettel’s race gets compromised, people are gonna cry foul play…. I fear Massa and Ferrari are gonna be very cautious and that could play into Vettel’s hands….

    • Kimi4WDC said on 25th November 2012, 15:01

      Massa is a very cool guy, don’t expect him to do anything crazy like that. Though some other people on the grid who are arguably more intelligent are much more likely to do this type of controversy.

  9. Abnash (@abnash) said on 25th November 2012, 3:40

    Is it possible that Ferrari will tell Massa to simply ‘accidently’ hit Vettel before the race and cause a retirement?
    Or is that too far?

    • Eggry (@eggry) said on 25th November 2012, 5:16

      I don’t think Ferrari intentionally order Massa to do it but there’s possibility that Massa goes aggressive(because he has nothing to lose and know Vettel has a lot) and Vettel resists strongly, then collision. If it happens, no doubt a tons of conspiracy theory would come, Red Bull fans might argue it’s team tactics but we will never know.

    • Prisoner Monkeys (@prisoner-monkeys) said on 25th November 2012, 6:04

      Remember what happened the last time a driver deliberately crashed his car?

      Not even Ferrari would be able to escape punishment if they told Massa to hit Vettel. They will no doubt use him to obstruct and block and impede and generally be an itch that Vettel cannot scratch, but they will never tell him to deliberately crash into another driver.

      • alexx_88 (@alexx_88) said on 25th November 2012, 8:27

        No, but as previous posters say, it’s very easy for Massa to go kamikaze-style on Vettel in the first corner, knowing that he will prefer to let him past rather than have a crash.

  10. Should be a cracker as long as the rain doesn’t mean the drivers being babied around the track by the safety car.

  11. Neel Jani (@neelv27) said on 25th November 2012, 8:44

    The build up for the race has all the recipe of a classic race and it very well can turn out to be as well but equally can be a dud in terms of the championship.

    I sincerely hope that neither Alonso nor Vettel gets taken out by any driver at turn 1 or in the first few laps. Would be bad if the title is most decided in the first few turns. I still believe that Seb would be terribly nervous and cautious. He has never been in this situation before and with a wet race in prospect, it can be fatal.

    On a different note, I wonder whether Charles Pic would mind Caterham stealing 10th from Marussia today since the prize money will benefit his future team and he isn’t the one who gave his present team the 12th place.

  12. davidnotcoulthard said on 25th November 2012, 9:37

    Any photos from ’08, like Vettel passing Hamilton in a Ferrari powered car and Timo Glock’s Slick tyres in the rain?

  13. P King said on 25th November 2012, 10:12

    latest weather satellite chart indicates low chance of rain.
    http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=weather+sao+paulo:

  14. chemakal said on 25th November 2012, 11:13

    If Vettel is out in turn 1 and the 2 McLarens run away. Will Webber fight Alonso the podium to death defending Vettel’s WDC?!?

  15. Gosh!! It’s drying up!

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