Sebastian Vettel claimed pole position for the Malaysian Grand Prix. But as we saw last week that isn’t the ticket to race victory it often was last year.
The unpredictable threat of rain, the challenge of preserving tyres if it stays dry, and a pair of fast-starting Ferraris on his heels are just a few of the obstacles between Vettel and victory.
And then there’s the small matter of what Kimi Raikkonen, the winner of last week’s race, can do from tenth on the grid.
The start
The Sepang International Circuit features the longest run from the grid to turn one of any track on the calendar. The cars have already covered two-thirds of a kilometre before they reach the apex of the long, looping turn one.
A driver who makes a poor start or loses KERS at a critical time – as happened to Mark Webber in Australia – will have car after car dodging past him on the sprint from the grid.
Both Ferraris made strong starts last week – particularly Fernando Alonso, who then found himself boxed in on the narrow Albert Park course. The vast width of Sepang makes that far less likely to happen here.
If the red cars get away better Vettel could have both of them looming in his mirror as they race to turn one. Which one will he block first: Massa, who starts closest to him – or his two-times championship rival Alonso?
The latter anticipates putting Vettel under pressure when the red lights go out: “I think if everything goes normally I will have a very good start so we should be able to at least maintain the position, if not attack, so we will see how are the first meters tomorrow,” said Alonso.
However he added that the frantic dash to turn one is not as crucial now as it once was: “I think that in this Formula One that we are experiencing today, the start is very low priority.”
“I think that 56 laps is a very long race, a lot of strategy calls to make, a lot of tyre issues that everybody needs to get through during the race.”
Strategy
With Pirelli expecting three pit stops per car during the race, the desire to save as much fresh rubber as possible was uppermost in the minds of many drivers during qualifying.
Red Bull took it to the greatest lengths, Vettel using a single set of mediums in Q1 and Q2. Webber attempted to do likewise but had to resort to using a second fresh set. The only other driver who pulled off the same trick as Vettel was Adrian Sutil.
In Australia Ferrari were able to get more performance out of their tyres over a stint than Red Bull. If that is repeated here they are in a strong position for the race, but bear in mind this is a very different circuit with a harder tyre compound and higher temperatures.
Practice did not give a great guide to race stint performance as the second session was cut short by rain. In the few laps that were run the Lotus pair seemed content to push their tyres harder and sooner than their rivals, indicating a degree of confidence in their tyre management.
Alonso is certainly wary of their potential: “If you have a good race pace, as I think Kimi has or Lotus has, I think they will arrive sooner or later in the race and will put some pressure on us, so I think we need to be very calm.”
However before they contend with the front runners Raikkonen and team mate Romain Grosjean have to make their way forward from tenth and eleventh on the grid. This is a consequence of Raikkonen’s penalty and Grosjean missing Q3 after the team lost its radar picture at the beginning of Q2, leading them to send him out on worn tyres for the brief window of dry running.
One point that stood out in Q3 was that of the five drivers who put on fresh sets of intermediates halfway through, three claimed the top places on the grid but the other two – Raikkonen and Sutil – languished at the lower end of the top ten.
Both these drivers also completed the previous race making one pit stop fewer than most of their rivals. That tells us something about how their cars treat the tyres – preserving their life well over a race stint but lacking that vital instant warm-up for a qualifying scenario.
Tyres
Each driver started qualifying with three sets of hard tyres and three sets of mediums for it and the race. Here’s how many new sets of each type of tyre they have left:
Position | Driver | Hard | Medium |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Sebastian Vettel | 3 | 2 |
2 | Felipe Massa | 2 | 2 |
3 | Fernando Alonso | 2 | 2 |
4 | Lewis Hamilton | 2 | 2 |
5 | Mark Webber | 3 | 1 |
6 | Nico Rosberg | 2 | 2 |
7 | Jenson Button | 2 | 2 |
8 | Adrian Sutil | 3 | 2 |
9 | Sergio Perez | 2 | 2 |
10 | Kimi Raikkonen | 3 | 1 |
11 | Romain Grosjean | 3 | 1 |
12 | Nico Hulkenberg | 2 | 2 |
13 | Daniel Ricciardo | 3 | 1 |
14 | Esteban Gutierrez | 2 | 1 |
15 | Paul di Resta | 3 | 1 |
16 | Pastor Maldonado | 2 | 2 |
17 | Jean-Eric Vergne | 2 | 2 |
18 | Valtteri Bottas | 2 | 2 |
19 | Jules Bianchi | 3 | 1 |
20 | Charles Pic | 3 | 1 |
21 | Max Chilton | 3 | 1 |
22 | Giedo van der Garde | 3 | 1 |
As all the drivers in Q3 set their best times on intermediate tyres, all drivers will have a free choice of which tyre compound they start on.
Qualifying times in full
Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
1 | Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull | 1’37.899 | 1’37.245 (-0.654) | 1’49.674 (+12.429) |
2 | Felipe Massa | Ferrari | 1’37.712 | 1’36.874 (-0.838) | 1’50.587 (+13.713) |
3 | Fernando Alonso | Ferrari | 1’37.314 | 1’36.877 (-0.437) | 1’50.727 (+13.850) |
4 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’37.513 | 1’36.517 (-0.996) | 1’51.699 (+15.182) |
5 | Mark Webber | Red Bull | 1’37.619 | 1’36.449 (-1.170) | 1’52.244 (+15.795) |
6 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 1’37.239 | 1’36.190 (-1.049) | 1’52.519 (+16.329) |
7 | Kimi Raikkonen | Lotus | 1’36.959 | 1’36.640 (-0.319) | 1’52.970 (+16.330) |
8 | Jenson Button | McLaren | 1’37.487 | 1’37.117 (-0.370) | 1’53.175 (+16.058) |
9 | Adrian Sutil | Force India | 1’36.809 | 1’36.834 (+0.025) | 1’53.439 (+16.605) |
10 | Sergio Perez | McLaren | 1’37.702 | 1’37.342 (-0.360) | 1’54.136 (+16.794) |
11 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus | 1’37.363 | 1’37.636 (+0.273) | |
12 | Nico Hulkenberg | Sauber | 1’37.931 | 1’38.125 (+0.194) | |
13 | Daniel Ricciardo | Toro Rosso | 1’37.722 | 1’38.822 (+1.100) | |
14 | Esteban Gutierrez | Sauber | 1’37.707 | 1’39.221 (+1.514) | |
15 | Paul di Resta | Force India | 1’37.493 | 1’44.509 (+7.016) | |
16 | Pastor Maldonado | Williams | 1’37.867 | ||
17 | Jean-Eric Vergne | Toro Rosso | 1’38.157 | ||
18 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 1’38.207 | ||
19 | Jules Bianchi | Marussia | 1’38.434 | ||
20 | Charles Pic | Caterham | 1’39.314 | ||
21 | Max Chilton | Marussia | 1’39.672 | ||
22 | Giedo van der Garde | Caterham | 1’39.932 |
Sector times
Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
---|---|---|---|
Sebastian Vettel | 25.139 (10) | 32.520 (10) | 39.586 (10) |
Felipe Massa | 25.080 (9) | 32.416 (8) | 39.378 (7) |
Fernando Alonso | 25.014 (4) | 32.274 (4) | 39.372 (6) |
Lewis Hamilton | 24.987 (3) | 32.209 (3) | 39.321 (4) |
Mark Webber | 25.016 (5) | 32.194 (2) | 39.239 (2) |
Nico Rosberg | 24.983 (2) | 32.048 (1) | 39.159 (1) |
Kimi Raikkonen | 24.932 (1) | 32.309 (5) | 39.336 (5) |
Jenson Button | 25.169 (11) | 32.356 (6) | 39.518 (9) |
Adrian Sutil | 25.046 (6) | 32.394 (7) | 39.316 (3) |
Sergio Perez | 25.234 (13) | 32.483 (9) | 39.625 (11) |
Romain Grosjean | 25.065 (8) | 32.560 (12) | 39.695 (12) |
Nico Hulkenberg | 25.366 (15) | 32.685 (15) | 39.824 (15) |
Daniel Ricciardo | 25.233 (12) | 32.675 (14) | 39.814 (14) |
Esteban Gutierrez | 25.240 (14) | 32.672 (13) | 39.761 (13) |
Paul di Resta | 25.048 (7) | 32.826 (19) | 39.509 (8) |
Pastor Maldonado | 25.422 (17) | 32.541 (11) | 39.856 (16) |
Jean-Eric Vergne | 25.366 (15) | 32.802 (17) | 39.986 (18) |
Valtteri Bottas | 25.467 (19) | 32.792 (16) | 39.906 (17) |
Jules Bianchi | 25.443 (18) | 32.804 (18) | 40.187 (19) |
Charles Pic | 25.649 (21) | 33.341 (20) | 40.324 (20) |
Max Chilton | 25.593 (20) | 33.526 (21) | 40.553 (22) |
Giedo van der Garde | 25.689 (22) | 33.772 (22) | 40.471 (21) |
Speed trap
Pos | Driver | Car | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adrian Sutil | Force India | 307.1 (190.8) | |
2 | Paul di Resta | Force India | 306.9 (190.7) | -0.2 |
3 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus | 306.9 (190.7) | -0.2 |
4 | Kimi Raikkonen | Lotus | 306.5 (190.5) | -0.6 |
5 | Fernando Alonso | Ferrari | 303.2 (188.4) | -3.9 |
6 | Sergio Perez | McLaren | 303.0 (188.3) | -4.1 |
7 | Daniel Ricciardo | Toro Rosso | 302.8 (188.2) | -4.3 |
8 | Felipe Massa | Ferrari | 302.6 (188.0) | -4.5 |
9 | Jean-Eric Vergne | Toro Rosso | 302.5 (188.0) | -4.6 |
10 | Jenson Button | McLaren | 302.0 (187.7) | -5.1 |
11 | Charles Pic | Caterham | 301.9 (187.6) | -5.2 |
12 | Nico Hulkenberg | Sauber | 301.9 (187.6) | -5.2 |
13 | Max Chilton | Marussia | 301.7 (187.5) | -5.4 |
14 | Jules Bianchi | Marussia | 301.4 (187.3) | -5.7 |
15 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 301.1 (187.1) | -6.0 |
16 | Esteban Gutierrez | Sauber | 300.4 (186.7) | -6.7 |
17 | Giedo van der Garde | Caterham | 300.3 (186.6) | -6.8 |
18 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 300.1 (186.5) | -7.0 |
19 | Mark Webber | Red Bull | 299.6 (186.2) | -7.5 |
20 | Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull | 298.5 (185.5) | -8.6 |
21 | Pastor Maldonado | Williams | 298.0 (185.2) | -9.1 |
22 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 296.4 (184.2) | -10.7 |
Over to you
Who’s your tip for victory? Where will Raikkonen finish from tenth on the grid?
Share your views on the Malaysian Grand Prix in the comments.
2013 Malaysian Grand Prix
- Horner: Vettel and Webber have a “healthy rivalry”
- Webber wins Malaysian GP Driver of the Weekend
- Red Bull gives up on team orders as Vettel admits he would defy them again
- Malaysia retirement no concern for Alonso
- Massa: Red Bull’s team orders not “intelligent”
Cyclops_PL (@cyclops_pl)
23rd March 2013, 17:03
If Red Bull haven’t improved their tire management and race pace then we are in for a Ferrari double.
J. Jonah Jameson (@jjjj)
23rd March 2013, 19:51
Redbull, Ferrari …. Why no article on the McLarens..??
Max Jacobson (@vettel1)
23rd March 2013, 20:12
@jjjj – because they are rubbish currently, to put it bluntly. They are almost competely out of contention for the win, so they haven’t had an article dedicated to them (just as every other team apart from the aforementioned has too).
Carl Craven
23rd March 2013, 20:49
Only a fool rubbishes the competition.
Fer no.65 (@fer-no65)
23rd March 2013, 22:49
I’ll consider Caterham for a shot to the win, then.
Max Jacobson (@vettel1)
23rd March 2013, 23:39
There is a point at which you have to become a realist though, and McLaren are beyond that realm.
bimo
23rd March 2013, 20:56
Alonso has an eye on Raikkonen, so the F1 circus decide penalty for impeding Rosberg..I didn’t hear Rosberg complains though.
Nomore (@nomore)
23rd March 2013, 22:49
Hear, hear
Now we ended up that it’s Alonso’s fault for Raikkonen penalty…
…errrr
dennis (@dennis)
23rd March 2013, 23:17
It was Hamilton’s fault, obviously.
Tom_ec1 (@tom_ec1)
23rd March 2013, 17:09
Keith, I may be wrong but as I understand teams start qualifying with three sets of primes and three sets of options.
See here: http://www.formula1.com/inside_f1/rules_and_regulations/sporting_regulations/8680/fia.html
If so then I think your tyre allocation table is incorrect, as it appears to have assume that teams started with 4 tyres of each compound.
Tom_ec1 (@tom_ec1)
23rd March 2013, 17:14
FP1: 6 primes, 5 options (see 25.4a)
FP2: 5 primes, 5 options (see 25.4a)
FP3: 4 primes, 4 options (see 25.4a)
Q: 3 primes, 3 options (see 25.4c)
Feel free to correct me if this isn’t correct!
Aish Heydrich (@aish)
23rd March 2013, 17:59
@tom_ec1: So how many sets of tires does Optimus Prime have?
I know as much as you, so I was a little confused too, but I also know from hanging around here for longer than I should, that Keith is never wrong. There may be an occasional typo but he is not wrong. I knew many things that I thought were right but ever since I joined F1F… I’ve been learning new things, which is good, that’s why I love this page.
Palle (@palle)
23rd March 2013, 19:06
@aish COD;-)
raymondu999 (@raymondu999)
23rd March 2013, 19:40
@aish Keith is very good, and is generally not wrong, 99% of the time – but being human he is not infallible.
As @enigma and @tom_ec1 have referred to – everyone starts quali with 3 primes and 3 options.
Keith please don’t take this the wrong way mate. Happens to the best of us.
Aish Heydrich (@aish)
23rd March 2013, 20:28
sacrilege.
Osvaldas31 (@osvaldas31)
23rd March 2013, 17:33
Yeah, I remember Martin Brundle saying that before this morning’s qualifying.
Enigma (@enigma)
23rd March 2013, 19:05
I think it’s 3 as well. @keithcollantine ?
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
23rd March 2013, 20:43
@tom_ec1 Yes you’re right I’ve amended the table.
ivz (@ivz)
24th March 2013, 0:10
That 1% that Keith gets wrong is simply due to working too hard and lack of sleep :)
DaveF1 (@davef1)
23rd March 2013, 17:12
The top speed of the Red Bull looks pretty slow. It predict that Vettel will be 3rd and Webber 23rd by the time they get to the first corner.
HK (@me4me)
23rd March 2013, 17:17
Only 5km/h difference between Alonso and Vettel. It’s not that huge a difference, and should be easy to overcome if Vettel gets DRS. But im with ya, the Ferrari’s probaly are quick as lightning at the start.
@HoHum (@hohum)
23rd March 2013, 17:36
Steve Matchett on NBC pointed out what was a visibly smaller rear wing on the RBR’s than the rest and yet they are still down on top speed. Strange!
David Hobbs also observed that contrary to percieved wisdom the Medium tyres, seemed to be as or more durable than the Hards, certainly I saw some shocking failures of the hards in P3.
panache (@panache)
24th March 2013, 5:33
Gear ratios. Red Bull are always hitting the limiter in final gear way before the end of straights.
Cucamest (@kevincucamest)
23rd March 2013, 18:22
@davef1 There are only 22 cars on the grid this year ;)
@HoHum (@hohum)
23rd March 2013, 19:41
Just goes to show how bad Webbers starts can be!
DaveF1 (@davef1)
23rd March 2013, 20:17
Don’t worry, I know there’s only 22 cars. I was just joking that his start would’ve been so bad that he would’ve ended up behind the medical car =P
Kingshark (@kingshark)
23rd March 2013, 18:22
@davef1
I laughed.
Palle (@palle)
23rd March 2013, 19:13
@davef1 Often a high top speed comes with the penalty of slower acceleration, and they don’t reach top speed on the dash to the first corner. That said, You’re right to think that the 2 Ferrari’s probably will be very fast out of the start grid as we have seen in Melbourne and last year. However Vettel is not Webber, so probably he will make it through the first corner.
Matty No 2 (@mattynotwo)
23rd March 2013, 17:13
I’m shocked how slow the cars are in the speed trap, I would have imagined 200mph on the long straights of Sepang.
matt90 (@matt90)
23rd March 2013, 17:28
Speed traps are often not immediately before the braking zone I believe.
Max Jacobson (@vettel1)
23rd March 2013, 17:55
I think they may well be in this instance though, otherwise the Red Bull would be right up at the top – downforce usually aids acceleration (due to the increased traction) but hurts top speed.
matt90 (@matt90)
23rd March 2013, 18:37
Only in the initial phase really I thought. I imagine the speed at which downforce stops being beneficial in a straight line is considerably lower than 190.
Max Jacobson (@vettel1)
23rd March 2013, 19:02
@matt90 – true true, but would the initial boost outweigh the loss of acceleration higher up I wonder (for example, in the race to 180 would a Red Bull or a Ferrari come out on top do you think, ignoring starts)?
Aish Heydrich (@aish)
23rd March 2013, 18:02
@mattynotwo They were all saving tires, didn’t you know? Let me tell you what, this one will be a slow race, it’s because of the new tyre compounds. They degrade quicker than cheap implants.
WilliamB (@william-brierty)
23rd March 2013, 17:21
I will be very surprised if Vettel ends the first lap in any position higher than third. In fact I’d be surprised if that was the case after the first sector. Red Bull are on the defensive tomorrow, because, from where I’ve been sat, they seem to have the worst degradation of any team on the grid. I will be gobsmacked if Ferrari don’t win tomorrow, because they’ve been quietly quick all weekend, and seem to have created a car pretty much perfect for the 2013 tyres. I know everyone’s thinking that Raikkonen may still come through, and he might, but the only reason that Raikkonen won in Melbourne was because Ferrari opted for the slower two stop strategy. Alonso was capable of a two-stop, and was, in terms of raw pace, the fastest car on track, so he will almost certainly take the victory tomorrow. I know people are reading this comment, looking at my avatar and thinking: “Sad Ferrari fan alert”, but Alonso and Ferrari were the quickest package in Melbourne, and will almost certainly be tomorrow regardless of the conditions. However, Mercedes also look good, and will be yet another barrier stopping Raikkonen from making it to the podium. I cannot see any other podium than Alonso from Massa from Hamilton. Now tell me why I’m wrong why don’t you…
WilliamB (@william-brierty)
23rd March 2013, 17:23
*…Ferrari opted for the slower three stop strategy
Joshua Mesh (@joshua-mesh)
23rd March 2013, 17:25
We havnt really seen how RBR treat these harder tyres. For all we know, they could be one of the few teams who will find the sweet spot.
WilliamB (@william-brierty)
23rd March 2013, 19:13
I suppose you didn’t see the longer runs in FP2, during which Red Bull showed poorly.
scuderia_fan85 (@scuderia_fan85)
23rd March 2013, 17:28
Kimi and Lotus had the quickest package, not Ferrari. they couldnt do two stops cuz of tires. and certainly couldnt of set fastest race lap on 24 lap worn tires. plus Kimi is on his game this year and watch him cut and slice thru the field. Merc wont be anything of a barrier. Vettel wont finish on the podium; two Ferraris and Kimi(if its a fully dry race)
WilliamB (@william-brierty)
23rd March 2013, 19:28
Being “on the game” is no guarantee of success, or at least in wasn’t for Hamilton in 2012. Also I think your interpretation of Alonso’s Melbourne pace is rather subjective. Alonso wasn’t pushing in the final stint, he had been held up behind the traffic, and in that traffic the dirty air rather ruined his tyres, so he knew that catching Kimi wasn’t on the cards. Here’s a fact. Ferrari could have done a two stop. All of Ferrari’s stops in Melbourne were reactionary, and utterly within confines of the three stop strategy structure, however the Ferraris didn’t seem to be struggling at the ends of their stints; unlike Vettel. The Ferrari strategists wrongly believed that the pace advantage of being on fresher tyres for longer would counter act the tyre ware, which was no were near as extensive as it seemed throughout practice and testing. Ferrari read the race incorrectly, and that was what lost them the race, not a chassis that is hard on its tyres. Also, you say that Mercedes won’t offer much of a barrier to Kimi’s “slice thru the field”. I’m sorry mate, but there’s being a die-hard fan and then there’s being a fantasist; and saying that Raikkonen is going breeze past a team that showed excellently consistent long runs in practice is very much the later.
Thomas (@)
23rd March 2013, 17:36
Too many variables.
Sorin (@sorine)
23rd March 2013, 17:47
Okay, and now let’s add some unpredictible events…
Staffan Hansson
23rd March 2013, 17:52
In fact, Both Ferraris would had prob. beaten Kimi if it hasn’t been for the fast Force India that were in the way some times.
Sankalp Sharma (@sankalp88)
23rd March 2013, 22:22
I’m not quite sure I agree with your outright dismissal of Vettel. Let’s not forget that the top 10 runners get a free choice on tyres, and I’m certain that Vettel, unless he has a disastrous Webber like start, can hold on to his lead for at least the first stint. Then given that there is a 50% chance of rain after 4 pm (Malaysia time) it can be anybody’s game right up to p10 on the grid. But under statistical Expectation my money would still be on Vettel given his wet weather performance yesterday. (Even though I went with Raikkonen as the predicted winner!). Although since I’m a Ferrari fan, I’m hoping Alonso and Massa can conjure some magic in the dry/wet conditions to relegate Vettel to at least third.
S Bomms (@spunkyracer)
24th March 2013, 1:19
In fact it’s the opposite. Top 10 qualifiers have to start with the same tires they’ve qualified with. It’s ones that qualifier beyond 10 have a choice of tires.
Sankalp Sharma (@sankalp88)
24th March 2013, 7:33
Did you see the qualifying sir? Since it was a wet Q3 session, drivers get free choice on their tyres.
Thomas (@)
23rd March 2013, 17:22
the tires make races way too random and what was supposed to be an equalizer became an even bigger distortion of individual performances.
matt90 (@matt90)
23rd March 2013, 17:35
We’ve only had a single race, and two wet/dry qualifying sessions…
Thomas (@)
23rd March 2013, 18:16
true it’s still pretty early but it seems like a continuation of 2012 which I didn’t enjoy that much. Personally I think racing should take the spotlight not tire management.
matt90 (@matt90)
23rd March 2013, 18:35
2012 wasn’t very random by the end, so a continuation of that would actually be perfect for you.
HxCas (@hxcas)
23rd March 2013, 22:56
I dont think Melbourne was very “random” either considering the top 6 finishers all started in the top 7 grid slots (and Rosberg would most likely be there too if he hadn’t retired.) Surely if it were random we would have cars starting 15th-20th up there somewhere
Jon Sandor (@jonsan)
23rd March 2013, 17:22
Who’s your tip for victory? Maybe my heart is ruling my head, but I’m going to say Massa.
Where will Raikkonen finish from tenth on the grid? Fourth.
Joshua Mesh (@joshua-mesh)
23rd March 2013, 17:26
Massa could very well win it, but due to those long DRS zones he will actually need to have genuine race pace over Alonso.
electrolite (@electrolite)
23rd March 2013, 19:38
Which he has done all weekend up to now…
WilliamB (@william-brierty)
23rd March 2013, 20:26
Massa was very much the cork that was blocking the sudden explosion of pace from Alonso in Melbourne. In race trim, Massa is still lagging Alonso; although so is the whole field.
scuderia_fan85 (@scuderia_fan85)
23rd March 2013, 17:30
Kimi will come from behind hard and fast; with one less pitstop will take his 2nd victory.
Jon Sandor (@jonsan)
23rd March 2013, 17:38
Winning from tenth is certainly not impossible, but it is statistically unlikely.
In any case it’s probably going to rain at some point in the race, making all predictions an exercise in wishful thinking.
Aish Heydrich (@aish)
23rd March 2013, 18:03
@jonsan: Agreed. I lol at the guy who says Massa will win, he doesn’t know Alonso drives both the cars.
oakrichardson (@oakrichardson)
23rd March 2013, 18:24
unfortunately I think massas only chance of winning is if alonso crashes out. That is in my opinion though and hope to be proved wrong!
Jake (@jleigh)
23rd March 2013, 20:07
I think Massa will have a great chance of winning if he can beat Vettel to T1 but Alonso can’t
M Dickens (@sgt-pepper)
23rd March 2013, 21:28
(@jonsan) I’d love to see Massa win again. I have a huge soft spot for him, as I also do for Webber. They’re both so extremely likeable you just want them to win, even in the knowledge they’re usually not the best on the grid. The more realistic part of me hopes for a Kimi or Alonso championship.
Osvaldas31 (@osvaldas31)
23rd March 2013, 17:27
Well, Raikkonen almost won from 11th in Bahrain, so I don’t rule him out, especially if E21 can preserve it’s tyres better than rivals. Besides, Lotus brought quite big update, so they should be very quick in tomorrow’s race. If it rains, then it’s a different story. Then Vettel or Hamilton can gran victory. But I would bet on Alonso. He has one of the quickest car, especially in race trim and starts from 3rd (remember, Felipe is ahead of him, so he’s almost 2nd).
Franton
23rd March 2013, 17:46
Surprised Keith that you’re not keeping track of the wet weather tyres. Didn’t the Merc’s only run one set of inters each? If it rains tomorrow, they’re in a better position than those around them.
Nirupam (@nirupam)
23rd March 2013, 17:49
Dont think that matters
First: I doubt its going to be a full WET race
Second: Even if it is, tyre degradation wont be a major issue for inters
John H (@john-h)
23rd March 2013, 19:44
It will be in changeable conditions (as in qualifying today) though, but granted it would probably be a strange set of circumstances.
Come to think of it, the dry option tyres remind me a little of the backup car on the top gear challenges!
Franton
23rd March 2013, 20:53
I mentioned intermediates. You mentioned full wets. Not sure what the correlation is there.
Tyre deg is a MAJOR contributor because it’s likely for mixed conditions. Those with fresher tyres will do better assuming the correct tyre calls are made.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
23rd March 2013, 20:43
Who said I’m not?
Franton
23rd March 2013, 20:51
Merely stating that I thought you’d mention it in the article.
Sumedh
23rd March 2013, 17:48
How come Sebastian is so slow in the sector times? Is it because of the worn tyres? Or is the Red Bull genuinely slow?
I somehow don’t think Kimi will be a factor tomorrow. I think the victory will go to Alonso or Hamilton tomorrow.
Vettel will get a solid haul of points.. which is all he needs to do till Newey figures out the 2013 tyres.
Nirupam (@nirupam)
23rd March 2013, 17:50
Probably you missed the quali Sumedh, Vettel did Q1 and Q2 in a single set of medium, thereby the slow sector times
Max Jacobson (@vettel1)
23rd March 2013, 17:51
He used worn tyres in Q2 and of course Q3 was wet, so that fully explains it! It does look rather odd though seeing “10th, 10th, 10th” yet he stormed to pole though!
AdrianMorse (@adrianmorse)
23rd March 2013, 17:52
It will be an interesting race if Massa leads at the end of the first lap ahead of someone other than Alonso. I don’t think Massa’s race pace in Australia was as strong as Alonso’s, but perhaps leading the race will be the confidence boost Felipe needs.
I’m still a bit wary of Red Bull and all their talk of not having enough tyres for the race; I would be very surprised if they need more than three stops. Like @tom_ec1, I understood that each driver only had three sets of the primes, in which case Red Bull could have a useful advantage over Ferrari and Mercedes.
@HoHum (@hohum)
24th March 2013, 3:14
@adrianmorse, a little rain and no-body will want to run the primes at all and they wont have to. looks bad for drivers like Webber with only 1 set of mediums to use, but it could be all about wets and inters.
Staffan Hansson
23rd March 2013, 17:58
Dream senario will Massa and Alonso win, in that order :)
I betted some Money on Massa as WC Before Australia when the betting were 65x the Money. so fingers crossed.
I know its a super-longshot, but when i saw the multiplier i figured that if i didn’t do it i would forever forget it if he had won.
Dion (@infinitygc)
23rd March 2013, 18:00
I think Vettel will win and Kimi will manage to get 5th.
Estesark (@estesark)
23rd March 2013, 18:15
The penalty for Kimi Räikkönen could be more significant than it appears on the surface if Adrian Sutil is planning to run the same, presumably two-stop, strategy. If Kimi doesn’t get past him in the first couple of laps then he could be held up for a long enough time to scupper his chances of making it to the podium. Kimi is near the top of the speed trap ranking, but Sutil is still ahead of him, at the very top.
The Mercedes pair are looking sharp as well, so I’d say fifth place would be a good result for Kimi now.
Enigma (@enigma)
23rd March 2013, 19:04
@estesark Good point, agreed. Sutil could be very costly for Raikkonen, and I wouldn’t rule Hamilton out of contention for victory. A very open race tomorrow.
electrolite (@electrolite)
23rd March 2013, 18:26
Ferraris are looking strong, but at the same time anything can happen here!
Come on Felipe.
J Dubya (@j-dubya)
23rd March 2013, 18:43
Sadly, I expect Ferarri will be on the radio during the installation lap telling Masa that Alonzo is faster. If they can dispatch Vettel and work together, they could use the double DRS zones to slingshot each other and drive away for the field. I wonder if the double DRS zones will make for some opportunistic alliances.
Eggry (@eggry)
24th March 2013, 2:13
That’s sort of Villeneuve and Pironi situation when they had swapped position again again for the show. And then Pironi decided to maintain his lead…forget it. I’m just saying.
andae23 (@andae23)
23rd March 2013, 18:35
Didn’t know that. Was this an error from the Lotus guys, or was this out of their control? I guess the former.
Merv (@)
23rd March 2013, 19:00
When Sky interviewed FI they said everybody lost radar, so they made the same mistake with PDR.
andae23 (@andae23)
23rd March 2013, 19:03
@cyclonetog Aaaaaahhhh… I completely missed that! Thanks!
Cyclops_PL (@cyclops_pl)
23rd March 2013, 18:47
Kimi admitted his car was set up for dry weather. If it’s in fact true, then no rain can give him a huge chance of reaching the podium. One way or the other, I don’t see Seb winning this one. Ferrari’s are a huge threat in any conditions and Lotus seems to be superior in the dry.
Merv (@)
23rd March 2013, 19:03
I think Kimi will make up a lot of ground in the run down to T1 and they’ll run the race from there.
If Sutil is still ahead of Kimi I don’t see that as a problem, Sutil was quickest in Q1 and is fast down the straight so unlikely to hold Kimi up.
Unfortunately if it’s a dry race it’ll probably be won on strategy again. If it’s mixed wet/dry then all that is out of the window.
Tomsk (@tomsk)
23rd March 2013, 19:22
I think Massa’s a good bet to lead after lap 1 – he’s had some storming getaways in the last few races, and maybe the answer to your question of who Vettel blocks first is: the one he wants to beat most.
I’d be surprised (but delighted) if Massa won the race though. Leaving aside all the conspiracy theories about Ferrari, Massa and Smedley aren’t always the sharpest tools in the box when it comes to strategy. Melbourne I thought was one of those occasions.
J Dubya (@j-dubya)
24th March 2013, 1:03
Don’t you think that was by design. Massa was on the radio clearly wondering why he wasn’t covering. My thought at that time was that Ferrari were making sure Alonzo pipped Massa as well. I suspect Smedley takes orders as well, that’s Racing 101, he can’t be that stupid.
Carl Craven
23rd March 2013, 20:48
I think RBR will suffer from tyres as will Mercedes, Lotus no, Ferrari maybe, Mclaren may come into it in this case but who knows.
All I know is if the title of the article is anything to go by we should be in for a good race.
toiago (@toiago)
23rd March 2013, 21:03
“The Sepang International Circuit features the longest run from the grid to turn one of any track on the calendar.”
Wasn’t Barcelona the circuit with the longest run from the start/finish line to the first corner?
bull mello (@bullmello)
23rd March 2013, 22:00
For the win?
1 Alonso
2 Massa
3 Kimi
4 Sutil
Alonso will get by Vettel and Massa on the first lap.
Force India (probably Sutil) will get podiums this season and I will predict win at least one race.
Melchior (@)
23rd March 2013, 23:26
Am predicting a reasonably good start from Webber today due to his proximity to Vettel.
K0V4LA1NEN
23rd March 2013, 23:57
gutierrez will have a few tyre troubles IMO
ivz (@ivz)
24th March 2013, 0:14
I wonder where Sutil would have qualified if it stayed dry……..
Rahim.RG (@rahim-rg)
24th March 2013, 5:25
i think it would have been a battle for pole between Raikkonen and sutil and maybe hamilton too…if it was a dry quali…