Ferrari need a result at home to halt Red Bull charge

2013 Italian Grand Prix preview

Monza, 2012Less than ten years ago it was not unusual for F1 to arrive at Monza with the championship already decided.

But the growth of the calendar, with more ‘flyaway’ events added at the end of the year, means the last European grand prix of the season takes place with over a third of the races yet to run.

In the Michael Schumacher era Ferrari had the luxury of arriving at their home race in 2001, 2002 and 2004 with their star driver already crowned that year’s champion.

Monza itself hasn’t seen a championship decided since 1979 – another good day for the home team – and it won’t do this year. But it could determine whether the last leg of the championship is a contest for the title or a procession towards Sebastian Vettel’s fourth consecutive coronation.

The significant of Vettel’s fifth win of the year at Spa will not have escaped his rivals. But for a faulty Red Bull gearbox at Silverstone he would have won more than half the races so far this year.

That moment of misfortune makes a big difference in psychological terms when looking at the points standings. Without it, Vettel’s points lead would be almost three wins. With it, he is less than two wins ahead, and the chances of him being caught is more realistic.

Inevitably the hopes of the Monza crowd will be primarily invested in Ferrari. Their pace at Spa suggested they could be on for a strong weekend here. But Vettel’s emphatic wins on the two lowest-downforce tracks so far this year – Montreal and Spa – will temper the optimism at Maranello.

Monza circuit information

Lap length 5.793km (3.6 miles)
Distance 53 laps (306.7km/190.6 miles)
Lap record* 1’21.046 (Rubens Barrichello, 2004)
Fastest lap 1’19.525 (Juan Pablo Montoya, 2004)
Tyres Hard and Medium

*Fastest lap set during a Grand Prix

Monza track data in full

Monza remains the only true minimal downforce race of the year which gives it a particular appeal for drivers like Jenson Button. “The place is unique,” he said.

“Ever since we lost the ??old? Hockenheim, this has been the only place on the calendar where you run a really super-low downforce configuration. And you can feel it ?ǣ the car accelerates up to speed incredibly quickly, feels skittish and loose when you?re running flat-out, and can be tricky and unpredictable under braking.

“But that?s what makes the place a special kind of challenge, and I really enjoy that. When you have the car hooked up beneath you, you get into a special kind of rhythm around Monza: you?re going so fast that the whole lap just flows together. There?s nowhere quite like it.”

Happily there’s no indication Monza is set to go the way of the Hockenheimring. For next year it’s not the track that’s changing – it’s the cars. This will be the last blast for normally aspirated V8 engines on F1′s great power track. Next year’s race with V6 turbo and uprated energy recovery systems will look and sound very different – Mercedes have already given us a glimpse of the future.

Italian Grand Prix team-by-team preview

Red Bull

While much of the attention has been focussed on Daniel Ricciardo signing for the team this week, Mark Webber’s final F1 races continue to tick down. This could be his last chance to race at Monza for some time, as it is not currently part of the World Endurance Championship calendar.

Surprisingly, this is one race where Webber is yet to score a top five finish, let alone stand on the dramatic podium above the start/finish straight. “Monza has never been that kind to me,” he said. “I?ve had a few retirements and have never finished on the podium, so I want to get a good result there this year.”

Ferrari

Fernando Alonso, Ferrari, Spa-Francorchamps, 2013Ferrari bounced back at Spa, showing a good turn of pace in dry conditions during practice and parts of qualifying. On race day Fernando Alonso bounced back from ninth on the grid to finish second.

Ferrari’s leading driver in the championship can rely on his good starts to get him in the thick of the action but needs to avoid a repeat of his fifth row start at Spa and make sure he’s at the sharp end from the moments the lights go out.

McLaren

Last year McLaren came close to scoring a one-two at Monza – Button retired from second place when a faulty tank starved his engine of fuel. They’ve been nowhere near that kind of performance this year, but with downforce less of a consideration here they may be more competitive than usual.

McLaren celebrated their 50th birthday on Monday and will be doing more to mark it this weekend.

Lotus

Romain Grosjean, Bahrain, Lotus, 2013Lotus’s championship hopes suffered a blow at Spa as Kimi Raikkonen posted his first retirement in over a year.

But team mate Romain Grosjean expects the track should suit the E21: “It can be quite hot there sometimes and it can be hard on the tyres. Considering that this is where we seem to have an advantage with our car, let?s hope for both.”

Mercedes

Mercedes may have lost ground to Red Bull in Belgium but despite both their drivers finishing behind Alonso they increased their points margin over Ferrari.

Executive director Toto Wolff credited the strength of the team’s driver line-up: “As their performances this season have shown, Lewis and Nico are probably the most closely matched and balanced driver pairing in Formula One.”

“Their combination of speed and consistency has taken Mercedes to second place in the constructors’ championship and our clear target is to consolidate this position over the coming races.”

Sauber

Esteban Gutierrez has doubts over how well the Sauber will work on Monza’s unique layout: “It will be a crucial weekend, because stability in slow corners is important and, unfortunately, this is where we?ve been struggling. We have to focus on that and try to improve.”

Force India

James Calado, Force India, Young Drivers' Test day one, Silverstone, 2013New third driver James Calado will make his debut for the team in first practice this weekend. Force India have enjoyed some of their best results at Monza and need to strike back at McLaren who passed them in the points standings at Spa.

Williams

Spa brought no cheer for Williams who increasingly seem to be running out the clock on a season which has been a crushing disappointment.

Toro Rosso

Can Jean-Eric Vergne capitalise on this opportunity to underline his own credentials by out-scoring his Red Bull-bound team mate? Vergne is a point ahead with eight races to go.

Caterham

Giedo van der Garde has driven well in the last two races and his confidence seems to be growing: “After the last couple of races I?ll go to Monza feeling positive about the next race and the rest of the season,” he said.

“The whole team had a lot of praise for what we did in Spa, particularly taking advantage of the conditions on Saturday, and it?s good to see people understanding that what we?re doing now is exactly what we said we would do this year ?ǣ learn, improve and deliver the results we want. 14th in Hungary and both qualifying and the race in Spa show how the package is coming on and it?s a good feeling for me and the whole team.”

Marussia

Ferrari-backed Jules Bianchi is hoping the crowd will extend some of its enthusiasm his way this weekend.

“It is the atmosphere, the fans and all the history attached to Monza that makes it so fantastic,” he said. “I also have a nice connection with the fans, and this year it will be nice to enjoy their support racing for the Marussia F1 Team.”

2013 driver form

Driver G avg R avg R best R worst Classified Form guide
Sebastian Vettel 2.64 2.10 1 4 10/11 Form guide
Mark Webber 6.55 4.50 2 7 10/11 Form guide
Fernando Alonso 5.64 3.50 1 8 10/11 Form guide
Felipe Massa 8.73 6.89 3 15 9/11 Form guide
Jenson Button 10.00 9.00 5 17 11/11 Form guide
Sergio Perez 11.18 11.00 6 20 11/11 Form guide
Kimi Raikkonen 6.55 4.20 1 10 10/11 Form guide
Romain Grosjean 9.00 8.56 3 19 9/11 Form guide
Nico Rosberg 4.00 6.44 1 19 9/11 Form guide
Lewis Hamilton 2.45 4.36 1 12 11/11 Form guide
Nico Hulkenberg 11.73 11.11 8 15 9/10 Form guide
Esteban Gutierrez 17.55 14.33 11 20 9/11 Form guide
Paul di Resta 12.82 9.00 4 18 9/11 Form guide
Adrian Sutil 10.18 9.63 5 13 8/11 Form guide
Pastor Maldonado 15.91 13.50 10 17 8/11 Form guide
Valtteri Bottas 15.18 13.70 11 16 10/11 Form guide
Jean-Eric Vergne 13.64 10.29 6 12 7/11 Form guide
Daniel Ricciardo 10.82 12.11 7 18 9/11 Form guide
Charles Pic 19.91 16.11 14 18 9/11 Form guide
Giedo van der Garde 19.36 17.00 14 21 9/11 Form guide
Jules Bianchi 18.91 16.33 13 19 9/11 Form guide
Max Chilton 20.27 17.64 14 20 11/11 Form guide

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2013 Italian Grand Prix

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Images ?? Mercedes/Hoch Zwei, Ferrari/Ercole Colombo, Lotus/LAT, Force India

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46 comments on Ferrari need a result at home to halt Red Bull charge

  1. Andrew Simmons said on 4th September 2013, 13:14

    Championship is already decided.

  2. Alonso or Vettel to win this one with Hamilton 3rd. Lotus to struggle and Webber to have another poor start. Massive drama about how it will be exciting strategy wise but Vettel will do a one stop and win

  3. Everytime i see grosjean make a mistake on track. it makes me hate him more. hope lotus get hulk/di resta next season

    • Force Maikel (@force-maikel) said on 4th September 2013, 15:55

      Whenever I see someone write *hate*, I get really anoyed myself, I can understand *I don’t like him*, but not *hate*. In the end it’s only a sport even if you are a fanatic.

    • nackavich (@nackavich) said on 5th September 2013, 0:25

      Di Resta? Really? Di Resta? Everyone keeps toting him as some kind of exceptional driver, but if he was, he wouldn’t still be at Force India.
      Even he thinks he’s better than he actually is.

  4. Can that fastest lap record set by Juan Pablo Montoya ever be broken in the near or distant future? If so, what should be changed about F1?

    • TMF (@tmf42) said on 4th September 2013, 19:18

      I think the records we see on these tracks are there to stay for a long time – in 2004 they had traction control, V10s that had to last only 1 weekend, transmissions weren’t restricted (that much), engine maps were open and the min weight was lower.

  5. Jueta (@eljueta) said on 4th September 2013, 16:14

    Grosjean is fun, makes me think of a day when drivers didn’t give a crap about orders or taking care of the car. Only has to mature a bit more.

  6. It’s been massively strange this year in that if anything, Red Bull have seemed stronger on the low-downforce tracks that the high downforce ones. I think that will be at least partially due to the tyres (high downforce = high energy = high wear) but what it mainly indicates to me is that just generally Red Bull have a very strong car on every track it seems. That is complimented by a driver who only wasn’t at his best in Hungary and possibly China.

    They have a very formidable package, and I wouldn’t be one to bet against them winning this race (which I wouldn’t have said at the start of the season). Alonso must continue hoping therefore that Vettel crashes!

  7. ME4ME (@me4me) said on 4th September 2013, 16:58

    Just put some money on Alonso winning the race. Vettel and Redbull have exelled at the low downforce races in Canada and Belgium this year, but each time Alonso was there in 2nd place, starting from 6th and 9th place. I think it isn’t unlikely he could start from a better grid position in Monza, and thereby staying closer to Vettel and possibly passing him with the Ferrari’s great top speed.

    • @me4me
      Alonso made up a lot of places, but he was constantly loosing time to Vettel. So if the performance of Spa and Canada is anything to go by, then Alonso wouldn’t stand a chance even starting on the front row.
      Thankfully though, F1 isn’t that predictable. Usually not anyway.

      • ME4ME (@me4me) said on 4th September 2013, 19:01

        True. But by Redbulls own admission, they had a great weekend at SPA, and that obviously won’t always be the case. Not that im rooting for Alonso btw .. hoping for Vettel to win at sunday hehe

  8. Nick.UK (@) said on 4th September 2013, 17:55

    But for he failure in Britain he would have won half the races? True.. ish.

    You can’t accuretly add a ‘but for’ argument without applying it to everyone in that event. Lewis would likely have won silverstone had he not had a tyre failure.

  9. TMF (@tmf42) said on 4th September 2013, 19:02

    I think Ferrari or RBR will fight for the win – Lotus will struggle.
    The unknown is Mercedes – they say they aren’t gonna be fast, but this year they seem to improve their results by modifying expectations.

  10. sato113 (@sato113) said on 4th September 2013, 20:01

    vettel’s lowest finish is 4th??? wow

    • @sato113 the average race finish of 2.1 is massively impressive – that hasn’t happened since 2011! Kind of puts into perspective how relentlessly consistent the pairing have been.

      • Slava (@slava) said on 4th September 2013, 23:27

        That is great (for someone), but I also remember 2006 when Alonso in the first 9 races was no lower than 2nd with 6 wins, and no retirements in the first 12 races. Not sure if even Schumi beats this results.
        This is the best year from Vettel but yet he has some work to do:-)

        “Ferrari need a result at home to halt Red Bull charge” – no matter what result they get they will lose. Besides, there is a strong possibility of precipitation on a race-day which is bad for Ferrari.

    • Though I find it annoying (as I am an Alonso fan) Vettel’s performance this year has been truly impressive to say the least… It will be a tall order for anyone to catch Vettel this year( I think realistically it’s only Alonso who can get somewhere closer to Vettel)… In 2006 Fernando finished 1st or 2nd in the first 9 races and yet Schumi caught him by China.. but circumstances are quite different here, Redbull & Vettel seem to be going from strength to strength whereas Ferrari is very inconsistent in their performances… Alonso needs to win atleast 4 or 5 more races this season to have any chance and I dont see that happening as Redbull will be very strong in the coming races and Merc and Lotus also will be in the running for race wins… It looks like Vettel will be a 4 time champion unless something dramatic happens … Though I dont like it he really deserves what he’s achieved..

    • TMF (@tmf42) said on 5th September 2013, 6:37

      Vettel sort of beats Alonso at his own game. His consistency is impressive even more than it was in 2011 because this year the RB isn’t as dominant.

      • This is year the Red Bull has only been the best car at Bahrain, Montreal and Spa, yet he has almost two races in his pocket.

        Always extracted the most out of his car in qualifying, extracted the most in races. He’s incredible.

  11. JCost (@jcost) said on 4th September 2013, 21:50

    I too need a strong result from both Ferrari and Mercedes… please guys, don’t let Seb run away with it so early

  12. Racer (@racer) said on 4th September 2013, 22:13

    It feels so wrong to be heading to Monza not much more than half way through the season, when for so many years Monza signified the start of the climax the season, ofter a pivot race in the championship outcome with 2-3 races to go. I hate Bernie.

    • davidwhite (@davidwhite) said on 5th September 2013, 3:19

      ” I hate Bernie”. I love Bernie.

    • @racer – Agree with the sentiment. However, in a very obtuse way, Monza could be seen as a pivot for this season as well. Based on their recent history, probably Ferrari’s best chance since… Spain?!

      - If the pretenders (mainly ALO or HAM) win / ahead and VET is not in the points / minimal points => Championship alive

      - If VET ahead of the pretenders (putting aside winning for a moment, a distinct possibility in itself) => Ferrari and Merc abandon development of 2013 spec and Championship pretty much done and dusted

  13. Jay Menon (@jaymenon10) said on 5th September 2013, 0:45

    This is it. If Vettel wins on Sunday…its definitely over.

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