Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, Hungaroring, 2014

Tough recovery runs for Hamilton and Raikkonen

2014 Hungarian Grand Prix pre-race analysisPosted on Author Keith Collantine

Lewis Hamilton can at least console himself that his predicament is a familiar one.

For the second weekend running he has a starting position in the twenties while championship leading team mate Nico Rosberg is at the head of the field.

But this setback is likely to have more serious consequences at the Hungaroring than the Hockenheimring, simply because overtaking opportunities are fewer and farther between at this track.

The start

Hamilton’s chance to gain places at the start are likely to be further compromised if, as seems likely, he ends up starting the race from the pit lane.

And when he does get stuck into the midfield he will quickly find himself up another top driver who is ‘out of position’ – Kimi Raikkonen, who starts a disappointing 17th after a tactical error by Ferrari in qualifying.

Meanwhile Rosberg should enjoy an untroubled run to turn one, enjoying the advantage of starting from the cleaner side of the grid. Arguably he should be more concerned about the fast-starting Valtteri Bottas who lines up directly behind him in third than Sebastian Vettel’s second-placed Red Bull alongside him on the front row.

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Strategy

Hamilton’s best hope is that the rain makes a return – something which is not out of the question. Further storms at the track remains a possibility, though as in Germany two weeks ago the precise time they may strike will make all the difference.

Assuming a dry race, the poor performance of the medium compound tyre relative to the soft will force runners to avoid it as far as they can. In Hamilton’s case, ditching it as early as possible will leave him in the best possible position to benefit from a Safety Car deployment.

However if the race were then to be run in wet conditions he would have used the slower tyre unnecessarily. From where he is starting, however, some degree of gambling is going to be necessary.

Though it would be a surprise to see the Red Bulls able to challenge Rosberg over a stint, they are looking strong as expected this weekend and both must fancy their chances of seeing off Hamilton for podium finishes. However the continually impressive Valtteri Bottas also looks like being in the mix, defying expectations that Williams would find the Hungaroring a challenging venue for their car.

Qualifying times in full

Driver Car Q1 Q2 (vs Q1) Q3 (vs Q2)
1 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1’25.227 1’23.310 (-1.917) 1’22.715 (-0.595)
2 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 1’25.662 1’23.606 (-2.056) 1’23.201 (-0.405)
3 Valtteri Bottas Williams 1’25.690 1’23.776 (-1.914) 1’23.354 (-0.422)
4 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 1’25.495 1’23.676 (-1.819) 1’23.391 (-0.285)
5 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 1’26.087 1’24.249 (-1.838) 1’23.909 (-0.340)
6 Felipe Massa Williams 1’26.592 1’24.030 (-2.562) 1’24.223 (+0.193)
7 Jenson Button McLaren 1’26.612 1’24.502 (-2.110) 1’24.294 (-0.208)
8 Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso 1’24.941 1’24.637 (-0.304) 1’24.720 (+0.083)
9 Nico Hulkenberg Force India 1’26.149 1’24.647 (-1.502) 1’24.775 (+0.128)
10 Kevin Magnussen McLaren 1’26.578 1’24.585 (-1.993)
11 Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso 1’25.361 1’24.706 (-0.655)
12 Adrian Sutil Sauber 1’26.027 1’25.136 (-0.891)
13 Sergio Perez Force India 1’25.910 1’25.211 (-0.699)
14 Esteban Gutierrez Sauber 1’25.709 1’25.260 (-0.449)
15 Romain Grosjean Lotus 1’26.136 1’25.337 (-0.799)
16 Jules Bianchi Marussia 1’26.728 1’27.419 (+0.691)
17 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1’26.792
18 Kamui Kobayashi Caterham 1’27.139
19 Max Chilton Marussia 1’27.819
20 Marcus Ericsson Caterham 1’28.643
21 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 22 Pastor Maldonado Lotus

Sector times

Driver Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Nico Rosberg 29.197 (1) 30.036 (1) 23.482 (1)
Sebastian Vettel 29.367 (3) 30.109 (2) 23.681 (3)
Valtteri Bottas 29.277 (2) 30.484 (4) 23.570 (2)
Daniel Ricciardo 29.402 (5) 30.225 (3) 23.706 (4)
Fernando Alonso 29.467 (6) 30.579 (6) 23.747 (5)
Felipe Massa 29.398 (4) 30.710 (8) 23.902 (8)
Jenson Button 29.688 (10) 30.695 (7) 23.819 (6)
Jean-Eric Vergne 29.738 (12) 30.551 (5) 24.007 (9)
Nico Hulkenberg 29.547 (9) 30.869 (10) 24.016 (10)
Kevin Magnussen 29.475 (7) 31.087 (12) 23.870 (7)
Daniil Kvyat 29.531 (8) 30.767 (9) 24.105 (12)
Adrian Sutil 29.705 (11) 31.210 (14) 24.073 (11)
Sergio Perez 29.764 (13) 31.196 (13) 24.251 (14)
Esteban Gutierrez 29.848 (14) 31.240 (15) 24.126 (13)
Romain Grosjean 30.102 (16) 30.932 (11) 24.284 (15)
Jules Bianchi 30.346 (18) 31.656 (16) 24.591 (17)
Kimi Raikkonen 30.327 (17) 31.749 (17) 24.477 (16)
Kamui Kobayashi 30.429 (19) 32.016 (19) 24.687 (18)
Max Chilton 30.617 (20) 31.944 (18) 24.874 (19)
Marcus Ericsson 30.816 (21) 32.484 (20) 25.185 (20)

Speed trap

Pos Driver Car Engine Speed (kph/mph) Gap
1 Felipe Massa Williams Mercedes 315.8 (196.2)
2 Valtteri Bottas Williams Mercedes 314.8 (195.6) -1.0
3 Nico Rosberg Mercedes Mercedes 311.6 (193.6) -4.2
4 Sergio Perez Force India Mercedes 308.2 (191.5) -7.6
5 Nico Hulkenberg Force India Mercedes 308.2 (191.5) -7.6
6 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes 307.9 (191.3) -7.9
7 Kevin Magnussen McLaren Mercedes 306.9 (190.7) -8.9
8 Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso Renault 306.7 (190.6) -9.1
9 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull Renault 306.3 (190.3) -9.5
10 Adrian Sutil Sauber Ferrari 305.6 (189.9) -10.2
11 Jenson Button McLaren Mercedes 305.6 (189.9) -10.2
12 Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso Renault 305.6 (189.9) -10.2
13 Romain Grosjean Lotus Renault 305.2 (189.6) -10.6
14 Esteban Gutierrez Sauber Ferrari 304.8 (189.4) -11.0
15 Fernando Alonso Ferrari Ferrari 304.8 (189.4) -11.0
16 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull Renault 304.6 (189.3) -11.2
17 Marcus Ericsson Caterham Renault 302.6 (188.0) -13.2
18 Jules Bianchi Marussia Ferrari 302.6 (188.0) -13.2
19 Kamui Kobayashi Caterham Renault 302.4 (187.9) -13.4
20 Max Chilton Marussia Ferrari 300.9 (187.0) -14.9
21 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari Ferrari 299.5 (186.1) -16.3

Over to you

Is Rosberg on course for another win – and where will Hamilton finish after his latest setback?

Share your views on the Hungarian Grand Prix in the comments.

2014 Hungarian Grand Prix

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