Friday reveals little besides a glimpse of Red Bull’s potential

2016 Australian Grand Prix Friday practice analysis

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For those who’ve been waiting to discover how the competitive order has changed in 2016, Friday at Melbourne was frustratingly inconclusive. Rain showers came and went throughout both sessions, the upshot being that little running was done on dry-weather tyres.

One of the few points which stood out was Red Bull lapping almost 1.5 seconds quicker in first practice than they had in the same session 12 months earlier. On the face of it this was to be expected as Red Bull used soft tyres in first practice today but mediums last year. However the same is true of Mercedes, yet they were almost two-tenths of a second slower in the same like-for-like comparison.

Differences in fuel levels and Red Bull’s development rate in 2015 may explain some of at 1.5-second swing, but it’s another indication the team are in good shape with their RB12.

Sainz had familiar reliability woes
The same appeared not to be the case with sister outfit Toro Rosso. Having displayed markedly improved reliability during testing the team only managed to get a time out of one of its cars in each of the two sessions. Encouragingly, the team’s drivers managed a pair of fifth places. But there must have been a depressing sense of deja vu for Carlos Sainz Jnr when his car ground to a halt in the pit lane during first practice.

It wasn’t just the rain which made life difficult for the drivers as Jenson Button explained.

“Even if it had been dry, those 50kph winds made things very tricky and the early rain made them trickier still. In fact in conditions like we saw today, when it’s wet and windy, you can lose control of the car very easily, so I hope tomorrow will be a lot calmer to be honest.”

Nonetheless McLaren, who arrived at Melbourne with some catching up to do after testing, was one of few teams to enjoy anything like a productive day.

“We still managed to trial some engine and ride height settings,” said Button. “We’d like to have tried even more, but there was little point in such bad weather conditions.”

As to the crucial question of whether the gap has closed up between Mercedes and Ferrari, we’ll just have to wait until tomorrow to find out more.

As both first and second practice were wet, each driver will be permitted to hold on to one of the two sets of tyres they would otherwise have returned and use it in final practice. We should therefore see a very busy final hour of practice tomorrow morning if the track is dry.

The chances of that happening are slightly better than today. Rain is forecast throughout tomorrow morning but there is a good chance it will stop before practice begins at 2pm. Qualifying begins three hours later.

Today’s wet weather has, however, added an intriguing extra variable to the mix on a weekend when teams are already sussing out the final point of F1’s latest tweaks to the race weekend format.

Complete practice times

PosDriverCarFP1FP2Total laps
1Lewis HamiltonMercedes1’29.7251’38.84121
2Daniil KvyatRed Bull-TAG Heuer1’30.1461’42.41124
3Daniel RicciardoRed Bull-TAG Heuer1’30.8751’39.53522
4Nico HulkenbergForce India-Mercedes1’31.3251’39.30816
5Max VerstappenToro Rosso-Ferrari1’31.72014
6Nico RosbergMercedes1’31.8141’47.35615
7Fernando AlonsoMcLaren-Honda1’33.0601’39.89527
8Jenson ButtonMcLaren-Honda1’33.1291’40.00829
9Sergio PerezForce India-Mercedes1’33.3701’41.25614
10Kevin MagnussenRenault1’34.06014
11Valtteri BottasWilliams-Mercedes1’34.5508
12Felipe MassaWilliams-Mercedes1’34.6798
13Felipe NasrSauber-Ferrari1’34.7967
14Jolyon PalmerRenault1’35.47717
15Marcus EricssonSauber-Ferrari1’37.9566
16Kimi RaikkonenFerrari1’40.7541’39.48617
17Carlos Sainz JnrToro Rosso-Ferrari1’39.69419
18Pascal WehrleinManor-Mercedes1’40.4011’43.40131
19Sebastian VettelFerrari1’40.76115
20Esteban GutierrezHaas-Ferrari1’41.7801’42.89118
21Rio HaryantoManor-Mercedes1’43.3721’44.30429
22Romain GrosjeanHaas-Ferrari1’43.4431’43.73114

2016 Australian Grand Prix

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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34 comments on “Friday reveals little besides a glimpse of Red Bull’s potential”

  1. “One of the few points which stood out was Red Bull lapping almost 1.5 seconds in first practice than they had in the same session 12 months earlier. On the face of it this gain was to be expected as Red Bull used soft tyres in first practice today but mediums last year. However the same is true of Mercedes, yet they were almost two-tenths of a second slower in the same like-for-like comparison.”

    I don’t quite understand the phrasing of the final sentence. So if:
    Red Bull 2016 lap time = Red Bull 2015 lap time – 1.5 seconds
    A) Mercedes 2016 lap time = Mercedes 2015 lap time + 0.2 seconds (preforming the same comparison for Merc)
    or
    B) Mercedes 2016 lap time = Mercedes 2015 lap time – 1.3 seconds (0.2 less than Red Bull improved)

    Option A would imply Mercs did not really represent a competitive time, option B (which I think is what is meant to be understood) implies the Red Bull package improved more than the Merc package.
    Interesting in any case.

    1. Ii see what you mean now I took option A without thinking about it then read your comment and am thinking now it could equally mean option B. Is like for like Merc V RB or Merc16 v Merc15?

      1. ColdFly F1 (@)
        18th March 2016, 17:02

        It’s variant A (Merc was slower in FP1 this year compared to last year).

        McLaren similarly reduced their FP1 by 1.5sec.
        But of course that was nothing compared to Sauber and Manor ;-)

    2. It could also be option A, both Red Bull and Mercedes were setting laptimes of similar competitiveness as last year, but track conditions where a lot worse (hence the slower times for Mercedes). Probably the truth is somewhere in the middle by I agree with the writer of the article that a 1.5 second gap hits towards a huge step.

      1. It may also be the case that Red Bull were setting below par lap times during the same session in 2015 and therefore the difference in performance is exaggerated.

        Looking back to reports from FP1 in 2015, Ricciardo indicated that the team had to spend part of the opening part of FP1 sorting out mechanical issues with his car – Ricciardo had to have an engine change in FP2, indicating that his lap times in FP1 in 2015 were most likely compromised by an underlying mechanical issue. The team will have made improvements – and reliability would feed into that – but I do think that it does therefore flatter them a bit when making a like for like comparison.

  2. Was literally a damp squib this morning in practice. I dont think the order has changed a lot, just closer maybe. As you would expect in a 3rd year with steady regulations.

  3. After almost 4 month is impossible not trying to do “fringe” statistics with FP1 and FP2. I guess the “average JOE” like me cannot see a lot. Mc Laren running a lot and Sauber and Williams running too little. Of course weaker drivers (WHL, HAR, GUT,PAL) trying to do as much as they can. I call WHL, PAL and HAR weak because they do not have a lot of experience. I call GUT weak because he already raced 39 times showing he is weak.

  4. RB12 chasis is a masterpiece and love the way it’s kinda glowing on the track.

    1. What surprised me when they showed a close-up of the car in the garage was that it’s main colour has a matt or semi-matt finish to it, not the high gloss one usually sees. I find that very interested.

      1. Huh? Hasn’t everyone been talking about the matte paintjob for a few weeks now?

        1. Likely upon the revealing of the car no doubt but I didn’t pour over the pics and so it just struck me today on TV.

      2. You’re right. It is matte finish.

    2. Impossible to say as it also ended up in the gravel.

  5. I think that’s the first picture of a Red Bull that I’ve liked for years. That matte paint is awesome.

    1. Lol just remarked on that finish while you were remarking on it.

    2. Now they just need some matte tape to seal it up (the shiny tape on the sidepods kinda ruins close-ups)

  6. Red Bull again running masses more rake than anyone else. It’s intriguing because Mercedes introduced Floor W to help seal the floor, so they could run more rake, but there’s no visible sign of more rake on the Mercs.

    So can nobody but Red Bull keep the airflow attached and laminar at such an angle, after all these years? Or do the others have reasons not to? Clearly it makes the whole floor like a venturi.

    1. Other sites have reported that Mercedes are not pursuing aggressive rake angles and based on the last 2 years and what is likely this year they have no need their package is many times better than Red Bulls. McLaren also have a very aggressive rake but their car is far from good. People get fixated with rake or how tight the back is or the undercut on the sidepods. Merc do not have the tightest coke bottle zone, they do not have the most undercut sidepods, they do not have the most rake (many run more rake than them) but the Merc does the best lap times. For me Red Bull has hid behind the engine to a degree like McLaren when the truth is their chassis is not the best, Newey lost it when his pet trick the blown floors were banned.

      1. Hmmm @markp well Austin 2015 says to me the Red Bull chassis has plenty going for it. Tho I agree Merc seem not to need a lot of rake. I just wish I had a better understanding of how the different concepts work.

        1. Austin RB gambled on a wet set up so no comparison as soon as it dried they were even worse than normal. Monaco, Singapore and Hungary which are high downforce tracks where the engine is not that important would indicate Ferrari had the best chassis by the end of the year…..and no I do not believe that either.

      2. Guybrush Threepwood
        18th March 2016, 20:37

        Oh yeah, Merc dominance has nothing to do with their engine right, despite performing much more poorly at aero sensitive tracks like Hungary and Singapore…

        Mercedes have never produced the best chassis but have always had the best engine. Lucky for them the current regs place most of the performance on the engine and diminish the value of a good chassis.

        1. Guybrush Threepwood, why do people keep repeating this notion that it is only the engine that makes the difference? There have been a number of engineers within the sport who have stated that Mercedes does not have a power advantage – Honda, for example, reckon that Ferrari is virtually on par with Mercedes in terms of power (potentially as little as 5bhp separating the two) – so I have trouble buying this argument that it is just the engine.

          1. Couple of things…

            Seems like FI are running quite a bit of rake too.

            Secondly, I’m still stuck on the notion that with this new chapter in F1 it is not about chassis vs. engine, nor it just being a matter of slapping someone’s good engine in someone’s good chassis, and that being a guarantee of anything. It is about an in-house marriage of both, preferably as a works factory team, and an intimate relationship. Chassis and brakes and pu need to talk to each other and be in sync, or it just doesn’t quite work. So I’m not so sure anymore we should be rating chassis and PU’s like they are separate. The whole Merc package is the benchmark.

  7. The Red Bull is an absolute master piece, no wonder Mercedes and Ferrari don’t want to give them an engine.
    They use matte paint because it is lighter.

    1. Merc and Ferrari engines are a masterpieces no wonder Red Bull don’t want to send staff over to help them with aero. Oh year Ferrari and Merc are full teams not half teams and can make a whole package all themselves with the same budget Red Bull has. Wow.

  8. I’ll reserve judgment about Red Bull’s improvement until a few races.

    Let’s not forget the drivability issues which the 2015 Renault engine suffered at the beginning of last season-

    http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/24239/10100068/renault-engine-splutters-caused-whiplash-says-daniel-ricciardo

    I suspect the relative improvement for RBR vs last year’s corresponding sessions have more to do with this factor than any quantum leap forward.

    Which is not to deny that they have built another great chassis, or that Renault finally seem to be making progress on their development path. Fingers crossed that the Canada upgrade brings the anticipated gains.

  9. Keith,
    name that Renault Engine:
    I start of with: Rentagheumor….

  10. It is to be noted that RB did not start 2015 with a good chassis and resolved their issues mid-way through the season.

    1. I did note that.

  11. I’m not gonna lie, that Red Bull livery is growing on me.

  12. May be the Renault engine got better? That’s why Red Bull is so much faster..

    Isn’t that a valid theory worthy of being in the article. If you can write about Ted Bull making its chassis better, can’t you write about the engine getting better too?

    1. I didn’t say it’s entirely down to Red Bull making their chassis better. I do suspect at least part of the improvement has come from the engine.

    2. Maybe as Renault said engine gained 0.5 seconds over the winter and as teams find around 1 second a lap over a season theres the 1.5. Or this is a big PR weekend for RB with the Aston Martin deal so they are keeping themselves in the spotlight with lighter fuel than they ran last year. Either way I am hoping they struggle to make Q3 which should be the case when everyone gets going, in fact top 10 will be good for them.

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