Will Nico Rosberg make it five wins out of five at the beginning of 2016? Can Ferrari finally take points off Mercedes?
Here’s the state of play for all the teams and drivers heading into the Spanish Grand Prix.
Spanish Grand Prix team-by-team preview
Mercedes
Last year Lewis Hamilton’s flying start to the season was arrested by Nico Rosberg at this race – though only temporarily. Twelve months later their roles are reversed and Hamilton is the one who has lost points to his team mate in all of the opening flyaway races.
Power unit glitches on consecutive weekends have done the most damage to Hamilton’s cause but he arrives in Spain needing more than a change in luck. He’s got away poorly from the grid in three of the first four races so far this year. A similar problem this weekend could hand another victory to Rosberg – just as happened the last time they raced here.
Ferrari
The stakes couldn’t be much higher for Ferrari going in to this weekend. The team needs its SF16-H to deliver at the Circuit de Catalunya, a track so thoroughly typical of many of the venues to come. President Sergio Marchionne has made it plain he expects to see wins soon.
In pre-season testing they were quickest in five of the eight days of running at this track. But that will count for little in the warmer conditions expected this weekend. If they can at least lock out row two behind the Mercedes they will be well-placed to use their trademark quick starts to take the fight to their silver rivals.
Williams
Williams capitalised on Red Bull’s rough weekend in Russia to take a 22-point bite out of their lead in the constructors’ championship and move within six of the third-placed team. But their prospects for the season ahead will be determined by how much of a threat the FW37s can pose to the RB12s at tracks like this where efficient downforce is key.
Valtteri Bottas has qualified a strong fourth at this track for the last two years running. Keep an eye on his qualifying performance this weekend as a barometer of their potential.
Force India
This team is still waiting to get its 2016 campaign properly underway. Both its drivers were hit by rivals on the first lap at Sochi, continuing a run of midfield misfortune which has already cost them a lot of points.
It’s easy to forget that just 12 months ago Force India could only out-qualify the Manors at this track. Its B-spec chassis, honed in the Toyota wind tunnel and introduced shortly after that race, proved a big step forward aerodynamically. If their latest upgrade works as well again their season could be about to get a lot better.
Red Bull
Max Verstappen arrives to take his place which is just the latest step in a career of astonishing advancement. He has gone from kart racer to driver for a mutliple championship-winning F1 team in less than two-and-a-half years.
Can he hope with the pressure? He’s given little indication so far that he can’t. He has racked up rather a lot of penalty points, however, and is just four away from a race ban.
While Toro Rosso team mate Carlos Sainz Jnr kept him honest, now Verstappen will be up against Daniel Ricciardo, who has already proven himself as one of the breakhthrough F1 talents of the last few years. This promises to be an intra-team battle to savour.
With Red Bull proving more competitive than expected so far, the season moving on to a couple of tracks which should suit them well and a major engine upgrade coming soon, Verstappen’s arrival is well-timed.
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Renault
More power, more downforce: Renault need more of everything at the moment and their first attempts to deliver that will appear over this Spanish Grand Prix weekend. However the B-spec engine upgrade won’t debut until the post-race test.
The race could prove a struggle for them if they fail to break out of Q1 again. But the appearance of exciting rookie talent Esteban Ocon on Friday is a reason to keep a close watch on them during practice.
Toro Rosso
While much has been written about how Verstappen will handle his step up to Red Bull, the effect of Kvyat’s relegation to their junior team could be devastating for his career. He at least has the comfort of knowing the Toro Rosso he will get to drive this season is a more competitive chassis than the one he had two years ago.
Sainz is not to be underestimated, however, as Kvyat well knows having being partnered with him several times as Red Bull juniors.
Sauber
Despite their financial troubles Sauber delivered a new chassis for Felipe Nasr at the last race and his much improved weekend seemed to justify his reservations about his original car. Unfortunately a first-lap altercation prevented him from getting the result th car was capable of.
Buoyed further by a Ferrari engine upgrade, this could be a good weekend for the team. It’s certainly needed – they have no points on the board so far and will miss next week’s test.
McLaren
McLaren took full advantage of the opportunity handed to them in Russia, bringing both cars home in the points. They don’t expect the Circuit de Catalunya to favour them, but the MP4-31 has tended to exceed expectations so far this year.
A Q3 place may not be in the offing until Monaco, but count on a charged-up Fernando Alonso on home ground to wring the utmost from the chassis in pursuit of a points finish.
Manor
Pascal Wehrlein will enjoy the benefit of getting to race at a track he had much greater experience of this weekend. But the Circuit de Catalunya will expose how far the Manor is an excellent engine mated to a less spectacular chassis.
The team is pressing ahead with its aerodynamic developments, however, and will sport a new floor and front and rear wings in Spain.
Haas
Racing on unfamiliar tracks hasn’t stopped Haas from bringing home points in three of the first four races. But the return to Spain will give them the benefit of the bank of data accumulated during pre-season testing on which to base their set-up.
This could provide a useful opportunity to get to the bottom of Romain Grosjean’s concerns about his car’s handling in the last two races. Meanwhile Esteban Gutierrez is still looking for a clean weekend and his first points of the season.
2016 driver form
| Driver | Grid average | Race average | Race best | Race worst | Classified |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 8.50 | 3.50 | 2 | 7 | 4/4 |
| Nico Rosberg | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | 4/4 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 4.25 | 2.50 | 2 | 3 | 2/3 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 3.50 | 3.33 | 2 | 5 | 3/4 |
| Felipe Massa | 6.75 | 6.00 | 5 | 8 | 4/4 |
| Valtteri Bottas | 7.25 | 7.75 | 4 | 10 | 4/4 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 5.00 | 5.75 | 4 | 11 | 4/4 |
| Daniil Kvyat | 11.75 | 8.33 | 3 | 15 | 3/4 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 11.00 | 12.33 | 7 | 15 | 3/4 |
| Sergio Perez | 10.00 | 12.25 | 9 | 16 | 4/4 |
| Kevin Magnussen | 17.50 | 11.75 | 7 | 17 | 4/4 |
| Jolyon Palmer | 17.25 | 15.33 | 11 | 22 | 3/3 |
| Max Verstappen | 8.25 | 8.00 | 6 | 10 | 3/4 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 9.25 | 10.00 | 9 | 12 | 3/4 |
| Marcus Ericsson | 17.25 | 14.00 | 12 | 16 | 3/4 |
| Felipe Nasr | 18.25 | 16.25 | 14 | 20 | 4/4 |
| Fernando Alonso | 12.00 | 9.00 | 6 | 12 | 2/3 |
| Jenson Button | 12.50 | 12.33 | 10 | 14 | 3/4 |
| Pascal Wehrlein | 19.50 | 16.25 | 13 | 18 | 4/4 |
| Rio Haryanto | 20.75 | 19.00 | 17 | 21 | 2/4 |
| Romain Grosjean | 14.25 | 9.50 | 5 | 19 | 4/4 |
| Esteban Gutierrez | 16.75 | 15.50 | 14 | 17 | 2/4 |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | 12.00 | 10.00 | 10 | 10 | 1/1 |
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Who do you think will be the team to beat in the Spanish Grand Prix? Have your say below.
And don’t forget to enter your predictions for this weekend’s race. You can edit your predictions until the start of qualifying:
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Woody (@woodyd91)
12th May 2016, 13:51
“be well-placed to use their trademark quick starts to take the fight to their silver rivals.”
From what I can tell only quick start they made were in Australia, even since then they have either been bad or just average.
Todfod (@todfod)
12th May 2016, 14:19
Unfortunately Red Bull won’t have the Renault engine upgrade till after the Spanish Grand Prix, which is a real shame. Between Ferrari and Red Bull, I think Red Bull could actually give Mercedes a more difficult time at Catalunya if they had that 30hp more.
kpcart
12th May 2016, 14:33
I think Ferrari will do well if vettel has a clean weekend
kpcart
13th May 2016, 13:30
I thought Ferrari performs better then Mercedes in warm weather?