Ultra-durable tyres may provoke unusual strategies

2017 Monaco Grand Prix Thursday practice analysis

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What to make of a day when the two Toro Rossos were quicker than both Mercedes?

Thursday in Monaco was all about who could get the most out of tyres that are decidedly on the hard side. As the stint graph below shows, degradation was minimal to non-existent.

The first two sessions were conducted almost entirely on the ultra-soft tyre. Despite its name, some suspect it will continue to give good grip for as many as 80 laps – more than a race distance around Monaco.

That’s going to make race strategy very straightforward, but could also create opportunities for surprises given the right circumstnaces. Those starting outside the top ten will be alert to the possibility of starting the race on the super-soft tyres in the hope that an early Safety Car period will allow them to make a penalty-free switch to ultra-softs, allowing them to run competitively until the end.

Monaco Grand Prix practice in pictures
Ferrari look to be in good shape. Sebastian Vettel showed supreme confidence in second practice, reeling off a pair of laps which were comfortably the fastest.

Meanwhile Mercedes went down a rabbit hole with their set-up. This can be reversed, but the key question is how much useful development was wasted pursuing this dead-end.

Of course Mercedes tend to pick up a lot of pace when they turn up their engines in qualifying. But that won’t be worth nearly as much as usual in Monaco.

Having gained ground in Spain, Red Bull appear to be more competitive again. This was to be expected on a track which does not expose their weaknesses, but they don’t quite seem to have the pace to make a tilt at pole position.

Recent form indicates they will be especially reluctant to switch to the super-softs when the time comes. The team have tended to be slower on the harder tyres relative to their immediate rivals. They may try to gamble on leaving their pit stop as late as possible in the hope of a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car – but that’s a game everyone is going to want to play.

Until then qualifying strongly is the overriding priority. On the strength of Thursday’s running drivers are going to need several laps to get the most out of their tyres, so expect a busy Q1 and the usual whingeing about traffic, notwithstanding the fact there are two fewer cars on the grid this year.

Longest stint comparison – second practice

This chart shows all the drivers’ lap times (in seconds) during their longest unbroken stint. Very slow laps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan, right-click to reset:

Combined practice times

PosDriverCarFP1FP2Total laps
1Sebastian VettelFerrari1’13.6211’12.72071
2Daniel RicciardoRed Bull-TAG Heuer1’13.8541’13.20779
3Kimi RaikkonenFerrari1’14.1641’13.28382
4Daniil KvyatToro Rosso-Renault1’14.1111’13.33183
5Carlos Sainz JnrToro Rosso-Renault1’14.3331’13.40081
6Lewis HamiltonMercedes1’13.4251’13.87371
7Max VerstappenRed Bull-TAG Heuer1’13.7711’13.48667
8Valtteri BottasMercedes1’13.7911’13.90278
9Sergio PerezForce India-Mercedes1’14.2011’13.79976
10Kevin MagnussenHaas-Ferrari1’14.8701’13.89079
11Stoffel VandoorneMcLaren-Honda1’14.8131’13.94679
12Jenson ButtonMcLaren-Honda1’14.9541’13.98171
13Felipe MassaWilliams-Mercedes1’14.6171’14.00383
14Romain GrosjeanHaas-Ferrari1’15.3211’14.02276
15Esteban OconForce India-Mercedes1’14.4251’14.09385
16Lance StrollWilliams-Mercedes1’15.5951’14.47471
17Nico HulkenbergRenault1’14.87043
18Jolyon PalmerRenault1’15.9491’15.61650
19Marcus EricssonSauber-Ferrari1’15.69134
20Pascal WehrleinSauber-Ferrari1’16.2581’15.69569

2017 Monaco Grand Prix

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Keith Collantine
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54 comments on “Ultra-durable tyres may provoke unusual strategies”

  1. Go on ultra softs until the safety car inevitably comes out, then super softs til the end of the race. Simples.

    1. No, you don’t want to spend the majority of the race on the slower tyre. Even though overtaking is near impossible, you risk leading a Trulli train yourself and another Safety Car situation will ruin your result. It’s the other way around, start on the super softs and then go on the ultra softs as soon as possible.

      The highest risk for the front runners starting on the super softs is that they might lose position(s) at the start against those starting at the ultra soft. The most daring strategic move would be for a team such as Red Bull who realistically don’t stand a chance of winning this year, they might try and start on super softs and pit straight away, regardless of SC. That’ll hand them the undercut, since probably nobody will wait until the last 10 laps before pitting.

      1. You mean a truly Trulli train? Oh believe me, there will be trains, more than one, and would put my money on a crash between a lead lap car and a lapped car.

        Your strategy could work when there is low to no risk of not making the cut to Q3 on the “slower” super softs.

      2. But then they have to get through Q2 on the super-soft, which is highly unlikely.

        1. @john-h That’s not true. Q1 and Q2 qualifiers have complete freedom in tyre choice, only the Q3 runners need to start the race on the tyre they set their fastest lap in Q3 on. So you can get through Q2 on ultra softs and then set a Q3 fastest lap on super softs. Granted, it’ll probably drop even Ferrari/Mercedes back to 5th/6th position and Red Bull even 7th or worse. But if you want to go all out on your strategy, it might work and this way your starting position matters less, since you’ll pit in the first 2/3 laps.

          1. @john-h Ah my bad, you’re totally right on the Q2 tyre usage. I got them completely backwards in my previous comment.

        2. Precisely. Q2 is bit of a lottery. Mercedes, and maybe Ferrari might risk using the option tyre in Q2 on certain tracks but for other teams it would be plain Hara-Kiri; especially on a no-pass track like Monaco.

      3. How will you manage to start on SS when it comes to the top 10? Im pretty sure everyone will post their fastest laps in Q2 using the Ulta softs.

      4. 1 for the Truli train. Wooooo Wooooo. I miss Jarno.

    2. safety car comes out on second lap, what do you do now with your strategy?

    3. No no, what you have to do is: Start on the ultra-soft and stay out during the first safety car period. This will give you track position. You then pit on the second, late race, safety car period when the field is more spread out guaranteeing you a nice finishing position.

  2. What about pitting at the end of lap one, swapping from Super-softs to Ultra, and going to the end on that set? Basically, simillar to what Rosberg did in Sochi in 2014.
    Granted this option is really only for those that are starting from the back.

    1. I think the problem with this strategy, is that it immediately puts you at the back on a track, which is difficult to overtake on. If you can catch up by the time everyone pits, then great, however, it’s more likely you’ll be stuck losing time on people with different strategies. Then, if a likely safety car comes out, you could well lose out again.

      It could work, but I think there are too many negatives to go for it, unless you don’t have anything to lose.

    2. @ijw1 That’s what a few drivers already did last race. Get rid of the middle compound as soon as possible and from then on only use the softest compound. Especially in Monaco, where traffic is a major issue, I expect a lot of drivers to pit at the end of the first lap, which may put them into a long and slow train at the back. Must be fun to watch.

    3. Sauber just might do that. They seem to be off the pace, and that could be one way to get a good result

    4. @ijw1 Think again. Like others say, probably a lot of midfield/back starters will do this, which also makes this worthwhile for a near-the-top team such as Red Bull or Force India. Let’s assume RB for the moment, generally speaking they only have 4 cars in front, but if about half of the field does this strategy, that means about 6/7 cars behind them even after pitting in lap 1-3 (SC or not). Surely they’ll need to overtake, but both Ricciardo and Verstappen have proven they are great overtakers. Ricciardo is a Monaco specialist and Verstappen was relentless in the wet conditions last year (from 22 to 9 in almost the same number of laps) until he crashed out. And because their car is much quicker than almost everything behind them, overtaking should be doable.

  3. This is going to be the most tedious race of the season. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still enjoy it immensely, from start to finish, just for the spectacle alone.

    But I don’t expect a racey race… Hope I’m completely wrong.

    1. So be it. Just enjoy this for what it is, then move onto the others for more racey races.

      One of the things I like about Monaco is that it provides variety to the season as a whole.
      It’s actually why I like the T-wings, not because of what they look like but because each team has a different take on it, and are all doing different things.

      It’s what in between… difference and repetition.

  4. Button’s data seems to be missing from the graph.

  5. Does that mean there is no chance of the undercut? A 80 lap old Ultra still faster than a new Super Soft? Would the right strategy then not be to pit on the final lap? How incredibly unusual would it be if if the leader got stuck in his pit box (cant safely release) while the rest of the field stream in to the pits…. mmmmm

  6. Andre Furtado
    26th May 2017, 13:35

    Def wait till the last lap to change tyre and cross finish line in the pit lane.

    1. Andre Furtado
      26th May 2017, 13:38

      Lance stroll will trigger a red flag or safety car which is also a good chance.

  7. What if there is a crash after lap 1 but one not caused by Lance Stroll. Will the front runners stop or not stop?
    I guess the front runners may choose to wait out until Lance crashes around lap 10-20 and pit during that safety car. That would be better, right?

    1. Andre Furtado
      26th May 2017, 14:07

      Lol come on. You know it will be stroll.

    2. wait out until Lance crashes

      That is actually a ridiculously realistic good strategy

      1. It shouldn’t be, but it is.

    3. what in lance’s career so far suggest’s that he’s going to bring out a safety car in the race?

      he has never been a driver that puts it off track, into walls or hits other cars regularly. he’s always been very clean, he made virtually zero mistakes last year.
      if your looking for somebody to bring out a safety car then surely max verstappen is more likely given how many times he has actually crashed at monaco in f1 (3 times last year remember including in the race).

      lance made a mistake & hit the wall in fp2 yesterday, however thats the 1st time since fp3 in melbourne that he’s made that sort of mistake…. and both of them are mistakes many other drivers have made before. heck verstappen, alonso & vettel have all done what he did yesterday at monaco, its easy to do there.

      1. Change Lance Stroll to Max Verstappen and your strategy is realistic.

        In two races here, Max has dropped out of both of them by way of crashing.

        1. Sorry, meant for OP

      2. Agreed. All this Lance bashing is ruining my vacation here in Canada. Its of couse going to be Palmer who brings out the Safety car.

  8. Mark in Florida
    26th May 2017, 13:56

    Strategy is definitely going to play a part in this race. A safety car is almost a given with Stoll in the race. Whoever can take advantage of the situation and be on the right tires for their car and be in front will be key in Monaco. It should get interesting depending when the shunt occurs.

    1. Mark in Florida
      26th May 2017, 13:58

      Stroll, @$&! Auto correct!

      1. Andre Furtado
        26th May 2017, 14:07

        Couldn’t agree more. I play PS4 and I have no problems on any turns.

    2. A safety car is almost a given with Stoll in the race.

      i don’t get why people even think this because lance has never been that accident prone through his career so far. he’s been off track/in wall’s far less than others have this season, he’s actually been very clean so far.

      he crashes yesterday during fp2, but so did max verstapen last year in the same place…. heck last year max went on to then crash in qualifying & again in the race…. he also crashed out of the race the year prior so based on actual history surely max is far more likely to bring out a safety car than lance is.

    3. I thought a safety car was given with Max in the race. He’s actually crashed out of both Monaco GP’s he’s been in.

  9. Dare I say it, but is there where the two compound rule actually works?

  10. Pitting very early puts one into clear air and therefore all laps up to the back of the field or safety car would be faster than when stuck within the field assuming one was being held up.

    1. @blik That would be a bad strategy for the leaders. And also, just saying, but your name says “My Left Eye” but your picture is one of Lewis scratching his right eye. Can be confusing for the casual viewer.

      1. Left Eye is not a mistake nor is the picture. I’m not sure how many, if any, picked up how it came about.

  11. Hans (@hanswesterbeek)
    26th May 2017, 16:55

    What’s the “on-off” pattern in Verstappen’s times? Is that a qualifying sim, or deliberately hiding the “true pace”?

    1. Possibly too many cars around and can’t get space to go as fast as possible for qualy practice, so goes slow for a lap to gain some space to the car in front then pushes hard for a lap. Rinse, repeat.

  12. A safety car period will probably continue for more than one lap, so start on the ultras then at safety car swap on to supersofts, do one lap behind safety car, then immediately stop again and put on Ultrasofts to last to end of the race. This will give an overall faster car but the drawback could be loss of track position.

    1. At first this sounds like a smart idea, but after the safety car has been out 1+ full laps the field will be so bunched up that you’ll inevitably loose way too many positions. At the same time your rivals will also have stopped when you did your first stop, and they won’t have to stop again, so you’d have to make up those positions on track which isn’t happening at monaco.

      safety car timing is going to decide this one, if it happens early, start on supers, if late start ultras. The pole sitter could possibly get away with starting supers and holding up the cars behind until the safety car happens, or the cars behind him pit. But if you gamble on this and don’t get pole you could be in trouble.

  13. Everybody is thinking about a SC. But what if the race is clean. When would they pit? Wait until almost the end? What if nothing happens…

    What if someone stops half way for the SS are they going for a two stop? 0.7s a lap is the difference, so it might be worthwhile.

    It will be a scratcher this one. I am with @john-h this might be the only race where the mandatory compound actually works. Still I would like to see someone go to the end without stopping, the tyres might go the distance, but surely they will lose some performance

    1. I am with @john-h this might be the only race where the mandatory compound actually works

      Umm, this is not the *only* race. The last race at Barcelona also worked because of the two compound rule. Had that not been there, Sebastian would have won that race easily.

      In fact, the two compound rule always works when the situation is such that all the teams prefer only a single type of tyre but are forced to use the non-optimal tyre for a little while.

      1. In barcelona the faster tyre wasn’t able to go full distance. They had to do at least one stop regardless. If the mandatory tyre is to do that, Monaco might be the only race of the year where that proposition actually works.

    2. With no SC, you’d start ultras, and wait until the guy behind you pits, or the ultras loose that 0.7s advantage they have. it’s hard to imagine the ultra’s won’t loose the 0.7s performance gap to the supers at some point during the race, and if they do, that’s the point where you’d see cars stopping and things getting interesting. if they never do, the stops will be right at the end.

      I don’t know the stats, but I think it’ll be more a matter of when rather than if a safety car will happen. The top cars will almost certainly start ultras, so if it happens early on it could shake things up a bit.

      1. It is usually at the start that the chances of a SC are greater.

        I bet you some teams wish they could have Piquet Jr. Services for this race, that would be something

        1. Piquet Jr. Service;-) Good one, but Briatore is not Team Boss any more.

        2. @Joao +1. It would be a great way for a back-of-the-grid team to win the race provided there’s no crash on the first two laps. On lap three, make sure driver 1 is just ahead of driver 2, preferably running 19 and 20, with a bit of a gap to the car in front. Then driver 2 crashes at Rascasse and blocks the track. With everyone else already past the pit entrance, driver 1 pits and rejoins at the back as everyone else is waiting for a path to be cleared around the crash site. With half the grid pitting then and the other half the next lap, driver 1 should be in the lead and able to hold that until the end by judicious use of blocking even against the Ferraris and Mercs.

  14. Three or four races this season has already been decided by luck/strategy and has tended to favour the driver in second position so close has been the competition. I see no reason why this race wont be any different and whilst we may not see much overtaking it should be incredibly tense. Safety car? Almost certainly and probably more than one to choose from.

    1. @Fran: I agree that there is a high probability for more than one SC, because the cars are so much faster and wider this year. I think the top teams will decide a lap number after which a SC will make them pit for the slower tires, and then pit again for the faster, if another SC comes up. If no SC they will pit on the pen-ultimate lap. But RB might take an alternative strategy to up their chances, depending on how they view their ability to overtake.

      1. If no SC, teams wouldn’t wait until penultimate lap to pit, they will pit as soon as they see a gap on the track.
        For e.g.: If the running order is HAM-VET-BOT-RAI and as usual HAM and VET run away from the pack, I expect HAM to pit as soon as he is 15-20 seconds (time required for a pitstop) ahead of RAI. That way, HAM is sure to win unless there is a VSC later. It will be too late for VET to cover him as HAM will be faster on new tyres and VET won’t get by BOT so easily as HAM would. So, VET will have to wait for a Virtual safety car.

        1. Only two things wrong with your reasoning, Sumedh – Mercedes are the best part of ½ a second slower per lap on race pace which means there won’t be a cushion for Ham/Bot to take advantage of. If the order ahead of the pitstops is as you suggest, Merc (Bottas) would have to deliberately slow down to delay Rai in order to create the required gap and that would definitely open the door for RBR. Then there’s all the cars to be lapped to work into the equation…

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