The Sao Paulo weather has run true to its fickle form in the build-up to the Brazilian Grand Prix.
Multiple forecasts claimed rain was on its way for qualifying and practice, and although there was a heavy downpour on Friday the track action has not yet been affected by precipitation.
Will the rain finally arrive in time for Sunday’s race? That’s the question occupying everyone’s minds, particularly as they have no wet weather data from the new Interlagos track surface to rely on.
Some drivers are relishing the prospect of rain as something which might give them an opportunity. Jenson Button, whose great run in wet conditions at Suzuka was only derailed by a slow pit stop, is among them. “Hopefully tomorrow’s weather will be a little bit mixed,” he said, “that’s the only way we can challenge the cars in front.”
The start
The cars in front are, as usual, the two Mercedes. For the eleventh time this year they share the front row of the grid, and for the seventh of those times it’s Nico Rosberg on pole position.
Rosberg’s championship chances rest upon him doing more than just leading Lewis Hamilton home. He also needs his team mate to retire or – less likely – for someone to finish between them. Hamilton will be well aware that the greatest risk of that happening lies in the opening moments of a race. At this track in 2007 a nervy start for Hamilton saw him slip down the running order, leaving him highly vulnerable in the championship contest.
The wide entry to the Senna S followed by the long blast down Reta Oposta presents several opportunities for drivers to make up places on the opening lap. Though of course if the race starts in wet conditions behind the Safety Car that opportunity will be lost.
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Strategy
All the teams have a full stock of unused intermediate and wet-weather tyres if the race is wet. Tyre strategy may be trickier if the race is dry – and particularly if there’s a repeat of the very high track temperatures seen on Friday afternoon, which caused a lot of blistering.
“If it stays dry the quickest theoretical strategy is a three-stopper,” said Pirelli motorsport director Paul Hembery, “although we would expect most teams to try a two-stopper in order to avoid getting caught up in traffic”. The short lap distance at Interlagos means drivers who pit early are at greater risk of getting stuck behind quick cars in the midfield.
Whichever strategy drivers prefer, expect them to show a preference for getting rid of the soft tyres early on. “The soft tyres don’t seem to like the track too much,” explained Romain Grosjean, “so managing them in the race will be an important consideration”.
“After that we just have to push as much as possible on the mediums.”
Last year a typical two-stop strategy saw the first pit stop happening around lap 20 though some drivers – notably Daniel Ricciardo – pitted much earlier.
Qualifying times in full
| Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
| 1 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 1’10.347 | 1’10.303 (-0.044) | 1’10.023 (-0.280) |
| 2 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’10.457 | 1’10.712 (+0.255) | 1’10.056 (-0.656) |
| 3 | Felipe Massa | Williams | 1’10.602 | 1’10.343 (-0.259) | 1’10.247 (-0.096) |
| 4 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 1’10.832 | 1’10.421 (-0.411) | 1’10.305 (-0.116) |
| 5 | Jenson Button | McLaren | 1’11.097 | 1’11.127 (+0.030) | 1’10.930 (-0.197) |
| 6 | Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull | 1’11.880 | 1’11.129 (-0.751) | 1’10.938 (-0.191) |
| 7 | Kevin Magnussen | McLaren | 1’11.134 | 1’11.211 (+0.077) | 1’10.969 (-0.242) |
| 8 | Fernando Alonso | Ferrari | 1’11.558 | 1’11.215 (-0.343) | 1’10.977 (-0.238) |
| 9 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’11.593 | 1’11.208 (-0.385) | 1’11.075 (-0.133) |
| 10 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’11.193 | 1’11.188 (-0.005) | 1’11.099 (-0.089) |
| 11 | Esteban Gutierrez | Sauber | 1’11.520 | 1’11.591 (+0.071) | |
| 12 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | 1’11.848 | 1’11.976 (+0.128) | |
| 13 | Adrian Sutil | Sauber | 1’11.943 | 1’12.099 (+0.156) | |
| 14 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 1’11.423 | ||
| 15 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus | 1’12.037 | ||
| 16 | Jean-Eric Vergne | Toro Rosso | 1’12.040 | ||
| 17 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’12.076 | ||
| 18 | Pastor Maldonado | Lotus | 1’12.233 |
Sector times
| Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Rosberg | 17.565 (1) | 35.821 (1) | 16.475 (4) |
| Lewis Hamilton | 17.676 (4) | 35.880 (2) | 16.454 (3) |
| Felipe Massa | 17.588 (2) | 36.179 (4) | 16.388 (1) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 17.671 (3) | 36.061 (3) | 16.440 (2) |
| Jenson Button | 17.865 (6) | 36.210 (5) | 16.653 (5) |
| Sebastian Vettel | 17.870 (7) | 36.331 (9) | 16.737 (9) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 17.828 (5) | 36.313 (8) | 16.684 (7) |
| Fernando Alonso | 17.931 (8) | 36.296 (7) | 16.750 (10) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 17.952 (9) | 36.338 (10) | 16.785 (13) |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 17.961 (10) | 36.289 (6) | 16.735 (8) |
| Esteban Gutierrez | 17.975 (11) | 36.572 (12) | 16.774 (11) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 17.979 (12) | 36.933 (16) | 16.781 (12) |
| Adrian Sutil | 18.019 (13) | 36.856 (13) | 16.826 (15) |
| Daniil Kvyat | 18.082 (14) | 36.427 (11) | 16.823 (14) |
| Romain Grosjean | 18.149 (16) | 36.858 (14) | 16.839 (16) |
| Jean-Eric Vergne | 18.183 (17) | 36.900 (15) | 16.869 (18) |
| Sergio Perez | 18.091 (15) | 37.158 (18) | 16.681 (6) |
| Pastor Maldonado | 18.313 (18) | 37.050 (17) | 16.839 (16) |
Speed trap
| Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felipe Massa | Williams | Mercedes | 342.9 (213.1) | |
| 2 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | Mercedes | 338.0 (210.0) | -4.9 |
| 3 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | Mercedes | 335.5 (208.5) | -7.4 |
| 4 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 334.8 (208.0) | -8.1 |
| 5 | Jenson Button | McLaren | Mercedes | 333.7 (207.4) | -9.2 |
| 6 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 333.5 (207.2) | -9.4 |
| 7 | Kevin Magnussen | McLaren | Mercedes | 333.5 (207.2) | -9.4 |
| 8 | Esteban Gutierrez | Sauber | Ferrari | 332.7 (206.7) | -10.2 |
| 9 | Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull | Renault | 332.6 (206.7) | -10.3 |
| 10 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | Renault | 331.3 (205.9) | -11.6 |
| 11 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | Renault | 331.0 (205.7) | -11.9 |
| 12 | Jean-Eric Vergne | Toro Rosso | Renault | 327.9 (203.7) | -15.0 |
| 13 | Adrian Sutil | Sauber | Ferrari | 327.3 (203.4) | -15.6 |
| 14 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | Mercedes | 326.4 (202.8) | -16.5 |
| 15 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 326.2 (202.7) | -16.7 |
| 16 | Fernando Alonso | Ferrari | Ferrari | 324.5 (201.6) | -18.4 |
| 17 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus | Renault | 320.0 (198.8) | -22.9 |
| 18 | Pastor Maldonado | Lotus | Renault | 319.0 (198.2) | -23.9 |
Over to you
Share your views on the Brazilian Grand Prix in the comments.
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HK (@me4me)
8th November 2014, 21:46
Wow, the top speed of the Williams and Mercedes cars is mightily impressive. It’s gonna be hard for Redbull or Ferrari to overtake any Mercedes powered car if it’s dry.
Iestyn Davies (@fastiesty)
9th November 2014, 3:24
Considering that they are really racing for 7th, Vettel has already subverted the pole trophy by qualifying 6th…. @me4me!
N0b0dy10"
8th November 2014, 22:00
Wet weather and a Williams upset win please.
William Stuart (@williamstuart)
9th November 2014, 9:48
That would be absolutely perfect, a Massa victory with Bottas second after a collision between the two Mercedes DNF’s both of them (and Rosberg causes it!).
Woody (@woodyd91)
9th November 2014, 14:09
Williams don’t favour the wet, they were getting mugged at Sazuka, I’m sure Williams will be hoping for a dry race.
inters4tomorrow
8th November 2014, 22:09
Interesting to see how both the williams are only losing a few tenths to the mercs in the second sector.
I expect to see both the mercs and the williams get away from the pack, then there will be an interesting battle for fifth to tenth place with five to seven cars battling for fifth during most of the race. But of course the weather could have unexpected consequences as for some reason this track always bring surprises.
Warwick (@warwick)
8th November 2014, 22:34
“The short lap distance at Interlagos means drivers who pit early are at greater risk of getting stuck behind quick cars in the midfield.”
Why is that? I can see why a longer pit stop time would increase the risk of losing track position, but can’t figure out how lap distance would be a factor.
Michael Brown
9th November 2014, 1:28
Lap distance affects the frequency that the back markers are caught by the leaders (shorter lap = less distance to catch them). It doesn’t affect the actual gaps between positions, as the article says.
Strontium (@strontium)
9th November 2014, 1:47
If it is wet at the start of the race I really don’t want to see a safety car start. They just ruin half of the fun.
Eddie (@wackyracer)
9th November 2014, 8:52
After the recent events I wouldn’t complain If there is a safety car start
ForzaAlanRabbit (@jojobudgie)
9th November 2014, 9:35
+1
Strontium (@strontium)
9th November 2014, 11:37
Fair point, but I really hope what happened in Japan doesn’t have too much affect on the race, as I fear it will do. The accident was something which only happened due to extraordinary circumstances, which won’t apply at the start. I hope they don’t go too cautious.
TMF (@)
9th November 2014, 8:49
Time for some Brazilian craziness – mixed conditions, split strategies and midfielders performing well in the rain would be cool.
Formula1 (@s2g-unit)
9th November 2014, 13:47
That is exactly why brasil should alwayso be the last race of the season. abu dhabi is the anti climax finale. Boring track no atmosphere. No variable conditions.
Nick
9th November 2014, 9:26
Possible mixed conditions at Brazil?
Could be JB’s best chance this season to get on the podium and possibly the last chance of his career to do so.
I simply cannot believe that Button will be forced out of F1 while the likes of Massa and Raikkonen still have contracts. Beggars belief. Button would make them both look like fools!
Strontium (@strontium)
9th November 2014, 11:39
This is a problem I feared would happen to Kimi when he went to Ferrari. Everyone regarded him as a good driver, and now he’s gone against Alonso he is seen as a nobody, like Massa.
Button can be good sometimes but I think it would be close between the three of them.
ForzaAlanRabbit (@jojobudgie)
9th November 2014, 9:32
Massa doing 213mph?
Also, why Rosberg slow in S3?
BasCB (@bascb)
9th November 2014, 10:27
S3 is a relatively short sector. Setting up the car to win a lot of time in the first 2 sectors, or mainly in the second sector (where you can make up a bigger gap), makes sense.
You can see how Massa almost matches Rosberg in the first sector, loses more than 3 tenths (0,358) in the second sector and then gains back about 1 tenth of that in the last sector. Also 4th on the time sheets, behind both Williams and Hamilton is not slow, its just not the fastest, there is still only 87 thousands between the 4 of them @jojobudgie.
ForzaAlanRabbit (@jojobudgie)
9th November 2014, 10:47
@bascb
Didn’t actually look at the times, just noticed that he was behind the Williams’ and Lewis
:-)
ColdFly F1 (@)
9th November 2014, 13:21
interestingly Rosberg’s best sector times (even being 4th in sector 3) add up to less than 1:10. Wow.
ColdFly F1 (@)
9th November 2014, 13:14
Looking at the top speeds we maybe should break the series up in two parts next year. One for the 10 Mercedes engined cars, and another for the 8 other cars.
And at the end of the season we can have a few cars promoted/demoted between the groups.
I’ll leave it with Bernie he’ll know how to make money out of it (for him).