Hamilton’s penalty will help Red Bull pressure Rosberg

2016 Belgian Grand Prix Friday practice analysis

Posted on

| Written by

Lewis Hamilton’s weekend may be compromised by his 30-place grid penalty but Nico Rosberg can’t take victory for granted this weekend.

Red Bull led the times in second practice, the RB12 looking well-balanced despite uncommonly hot conditions which saw track temperatures exceed 40C. But Mercedes didn’t use the super-soft tyres in the second session – neither driver improved their lap time – so a question mark remains over their potential performance.

Steep rake angle on Ricciardo’s Red Bull…
Unsurprisingly Red Bull took the most time out of Mercedes in the 48-second middle sector, where Max Verstappen was almost nine-tenths of a second quicker than Rosberg. While the field has followed Red Bull’s lead in using high rake angles to lower the front wing, the RB12’s set-up is noticeably much more extreme and is clearly developing outstanding cornering speeds.

But the performance of Mercedes customer teams Force India and Manor – the latter in the rare heights of 11th thanks to Pascal Wehrlein – shows how much of a difference their power unit makes at this track. Both of the factory drivers have upgraded hardware this weekend, and may have had them turned down more than usual today, further explaining their low places on the timing sheets.

Whatever happens tomorrow Mercedes will not enjoy the advantage of a front row lock-out as they have in seven races already this year. Hamilton’s power unit penalties means he will start at the back.

And even if Rosberg does take pole position he is likely to have a pair of fast Red Bulls bearing down on him and perhaps even the flying Force Indias as well. Through Spa’s long sprint to Les Combes on lap one he could find himself under attack – remember how Sergio Perez managed to split the Mercedes on lap one last year.

Perhaps that’s why Rosberg indicated Mercedes were more concerned with their long-run pace, particularly given the warm conditions. “The grid is a bit all over the place this afternoon with people doing different things with the tyres,” he said. “It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out in the race.”

Go ad-free for just £1 per month

>> Find out more and sign up

…rather less on Hamilton’s Mercedes.
“Long run pace will be important, as you can overtake here. I don’t know how we’re looking yet – we’ll need to look into that. But there was a lot of tyre degradation, so managing that on Sunday will be important.”

Hamilton’s inability to qualify at the front this weekend is another reason for Mercedes to prioritise their race pace more than usual. There’s little for him to gain by running in qualifying other than to beat the 107% time in Q1 to ensure he is able to start.

The hot conditions which taxed drivers today will remain tomorrow but slightly cooler conditions are expected on Sunday. Ferrari are likely to be especially grateful for that, as both drivers were clearly struggling to find a good balance today.

Longest stint comparison – second practice

This chart shows all the drivers’ lap times (in seconds) during their longest unbroken stint. Very slow laps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan, right-click to reset:

Complete practice times

PosDriverCarFP1FP2Total laps
1Max VerstappenRed Bull-TAG Heuer1’49.8651’48.08551
2Daniel RicciardoRed Bull-TAG Heuer1’49.7821’48.34151
3Nico RosbergMercedes1’48.3481’49.16160
4Nico HulkenbergForce India-Mercedes1’50.0881’48.65751
5Sebastian VettelFerrari1’49.7681’49.02346
6Lewis HamiltonMercedes1’49.0781’49.78258
7Sergio PerezForce India-Mercedes1’49.2741’49.10050
8Kimi RaikkonenFerrari1’49.1471’49.24454
9Romain GrosjeanHaas-Ferrari1’50.8991’49.41938
10Jenson ButtonMcLaren-Honda1’52.4071’49.41941
11Esteban GutierrezHaas-Ferrari1’50.5831’49.64844
12Pascal WehrleinManor-Mercedes1’52.8371’49.71654
13Fernando AlonsoMcLaren-Honda1’49.77233
14Daniil KvyatToro Rosso-Ferrari1’52.3081’49.91644
15Marcus EricssonSauber-Ferrari1’51.1251’50.08343
16Valtteri BottasWilliams-Mercedes1’50.3941’50.15150
17Felipe MassaWilliams-Mercedes1’51.1221’50.15757
18Carlos Sainz JnrToro Rosso-Ferrari1’51.4241’50.19442
19Kevin MagnussenRenault1’53.0531’50.37554
20Jolyon PalmerRenault1’53.0891’50.56252
21Esteban OconManor-Mercedes1’51.7871’50.65951
22Felipe NasrSauber-Ferrari1’51.7681’50.71943

2016 Belgian Grand Prix

Browse all 2016 Belgian Grand Prix articles

Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

Got a potential story, tip or enquiry? Find out more about RaceFans and contact us here.

19 comments on “Hamilton’s penalty will help Red Bull pressure Rosberg”

  1. Wondering how it will play out should Rosberg be tempted to pull a desperation move on the Red Bull drivers.

    Looking forward to this race for many reasons. End of break, field a bit mixed up, upgrades from several teams. And it’s Spa!

    1. ColdFly F1 (@)
      26th August 2016, 19:14

      Wondering how it will play out should Rosberg be tempted to pull a desperation move on the Red Bull drivers.

      I wondered the same; hardly a problem I’d say on a power circuit with RBR having a young driver.

      And then I switched on the TV to watch the Canadian GP.

  2. Jonathan Parkin
    26th August 2016, 18:25

    Can we please get rid of grid penalties. It’s silly giving someone a thirty place grid drop and then starting him at the back of the grid that is only 22 cars meaning that it isn’t a thirty place grid drop anyway. Besides Lewis will probably just do a time in Q1 and not do anything else which technically means he would have to start the race in Brussels probably!

    1. A bit like someone convicted of murder being sentenced to 25 years but only serving 16…ok, it’s not the same thing but still, in both scenarios the sentence is rendered pointless.

    2. I don’t see why the penalties aren’t carried over. If he’s given a 30 place grid penalty, the remainder should carry over to the next race to save these tactical moves, and give an incentive to qualify high rather than save tyres.

    3. @Jonathan Parkin @hellotraverse @jamiefranklinf1 It doesn’t work like that. “Excess penalty” will be converted to automatic penalty at race start. If Lewis only do 1 lap in Q1 (and let say it’s enough for him to qualify for Q2 thus ended 16th) the remaining 24 grid drop is enough for him to get automatic 10s stop go penalty at the start of the race. On the other hand, if he get pole, the excess 8 grid drop is only, iirc, 10s (not stop-go) penalty. I think that is enough motivation for him to keep trying getting the pole.

      1. @sonicslv

        “Excess penalty” will be converted to automatic penalty at race start.

        No it won’t: This rule was dropped last year and ‘unused’ grid penalties are no longer converted into race penalties.

        1. @keithcollantine Really? I thought they going to make Abu-Dhabi style penalty this year. Must’ve missed the news on that. Pretty sad too, since I think that is a good compromise.

    4. No… There must be a penalty, otherwise teams would roll in new engine every race…

      Also we get to enjoy Lewis moving through the pack… Reverse grid style.

      I hate seeing Lewis up front doing his engine saving routine… Like watching Usain Bolt play Xbox… But seeing Lewis chewing through the field that will provide loads of fun…

      1. it would be fun if it was a spec series, but watching a Mercedes overtake 12 cars in 2 laps because of a massive car advantage isn’t fun to me.

      2. The best races are the ones that see Lewis chewing through the field from the back, with ongoing speculation as to whether or not he will make it to the podium. Say what you will, but it will no doubt be an exiting race.

    5. I’d quite like to see Hamilton and Alonso relegated the equivalent of 30 / 35 measured grid slots.
      As in before the last chicane if required! They could paint the grid boxes specially :)

  3. Hahaha, it is funny how this article seems biased and only want to show a situation where only rosberg will be affected by the red bulls. What this writer doesn’t take into account is that Hamilton will have problems passing both red bulls and if rosberg doesn’t have problems, the victory for Hamilton is forbidden!!! And he even might lose more points to both red bulls. So all in all, this race might result in rosberg and Hamilton being apart points wise by only a handful of points.

    1. Ermm…mate, how does HAM even figure into the race start *from the back of the grid*? That was the crux @keithcollantine ‘s speculation in that portion of the article.

      Almost no one, except maybe #44 himself by a slim chance, expects a Hamilton victory on Sunday. Ditch the Rosberg-tinted glasses and take the ‘bi-‘ out your ‘-as’, would you?

    2. There are quite a few cars that will be hard to pass, but if a Red Bull wins Rosberg can only score 18 points, that means he can’t take the lead in the championship whatever Lewis does. Lewis needs a safety car to get to the top 3 anyway, surely.

  4. The Hamilton penalty is so stupid, so ridiculous at this time in the championship that I find myself questioning the point of even following this once great series.

  5. What makes Keith think Hamilton is completely immune from the Red Bulls to make such a comment? Its only when Hamilton is out of the picture that people (Herbert, Verstappen can win in Spa) predict a victory for someone else, like Rosberg is not capable of what Hamilton (so brilliantly, I have to add) does.

    1. well, we can’t blame Rosberg for Hamilton’s mistakes like bad starts and that stupid crash at Baku.

      But what seems to be the most common scenario between the two is Hamilton coming home first when things go smoothly. Rosberg, mostly when things don’t go that smoothly, like bad starts and penalties for Hamilton.

      It’s almost unbelievable how he was 4-0 on wins and now is trailing Hamilton 5 to 6.
      The guy simply can’t win a race as easy as Hamilton. He is almost reaching 20 and still doesn’t look easy to him.

Comments are closed.