Just for the sake of contradiction to the OP, I predict that Perez will win 3 races this season. However, he will not be constant enough to mount a serious challenge for the WDC.
Jenson Button will only win 2 races, one less than his teammate. However, he will be both more consistent, and have more luck, hence finishing ahead in the championship.
Once again, Mercedes will start off with a fast car. When it seems like Merc have become the revelation of the year, the WO4 will fall behind in the development race quickly, as its previous successors.
Lotus will design another good car, but not good enough for the championship. Both Kimi and Romain will win one race each. Grosjean will be the faster driver, Raikkonen more consistent.
Webber and Massa will both still be #2 drivers to their teammates. Both drivers will have one period of slump for during the season, and one period when the excel. All in all, both drivers will win one race each.
Then at last, we come down to the two championship contenders. Vettel and Alonso. This season, Vettel will win 4 races and Alonso 5, with Fernando winning the final race of the season with the championship at stake.
Finally, Fernando wins his long, overdue third WDC.