F1

2014 Circuits by Average Speed

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  • #279774
    Keith Campbell
    Participant

    I was comparing circuits by average speed on pole laps, mostly as a way of predicting which teams would be best on upcoming circuits (discounting Mercedes because they will obviously be top). For the three upcoming circuits I have estimated pole times based on the most recent dry qualifying sessions from a previous year – for info I took 2013 poles + 3% for USA and Abu Dhabi, 2012 pole + 4.3% for Brazil (those might be conservative estimates but shouldn’t change the analysis much). The “Best of the Rest” qualifying team I have determined by the highest placed driver of the non-MercedesF1 runners.

    Race Length 2014 pole Speed BestofRest Qualy Merc winner
    (km) (secs) (km/hr) of Qualy
    1 Italy 5.793 84.109 248 Williams HAM
    2 Belgium 7.004 110.511 228 RedBull wet ROS
    3 Austria 4.326 68.759 226 Williams (1st) ROS
    4 Japan 5.807 92.506 226 Williams ROS
    5 Britain 5.891 95.766 221 RedBull wet ROS
    6 Germany 4.574 76.540 215 Williams –
    7 Russia 5.848 98.513 214 Williams HAM
    8 Canada 4.361 74.874 210 RedBull ROS
    9 Bahrain 5.412 93.185 209 RedBull ROS
    10 Brazil 4.309 75.574 205 predicted
    11 USA 5.513 99.228 200 predicted
    12 Spain 4.655 85.232 197 RedBull HAM
    13 Abu Dhabi 5.554 102.958 194 predicted
    14 Hungary 4.381 82.715 191 RedBull wet –
    15 Australia 5.303 104.231 183 RedBull wet HAM
    16 Singapore 5.065 105.681 173 RedBull HAM
    17 China 5.451 113.860 172 RedBull wet HAM
    18 Malaysia 5.543 119.431 167 RedBull wet HAM
    19 Monaco 3.340 75.989 158 RedBull ROS
    I apologise if I got any of the data wrong, I was using formula1.com for reference but entered most of the results manually so may have made the odd mistake.

    My conclusions:

    1) Williams is the 2nd fastest team on the faster circuits (even 1st in Austria) with RedBull taking over on the slower circuits. Canada seems to be the crossover point at 210km/hr (where the fastest RedBull and Williams times were almost identical) with Williams faster on anything above that except during wet sessions. RedBull are faster on anything below that, and the three upcoming races fall into RedBull territory.
    2) Discounting Hungary & Germany where Hamilton didn’t run the full sessions, there is an interesting split between the Mercedes pair. On the 8 fastest circuits, Rosberg leads 6-2, whereas on the 6 slowest circuits, Hamilton leads 5-1 (and let’s not discuss where the “1” came from). Brazil & USA are in the middle of the ‘crossover’ zone, but Abu Dhabi is Hamilton territory in speed terms.

    Point 1 was not surprising, although I didn’t expect the correlation would work out so exactly (excluding the two wet sessions in Spa and Silverstone). Point 2 I was quite surprised by, and it will be interesting to see how the last three qualifying shootouts play out and whether they match the pattern.

    I realise the sample sizes are quite small and things are rarely clear cut. But anyone have any thoughts or comments on this?

    #279780
    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    This is a very interesting analysis.. Red Bull’s strength is downforce related, so you would expect them to do well on courses needing that, not just matching an average speed correlation. Williams’ slippery car also helps them on the 130mph+ tracks, allied to the Mercedes engine, hence Bottas’ dismay at Monza, which he felt was a missed opportunity.


    @keithedin
    The second point also points to a reason for Hamilton being so dominant at Abu Dhabi. Like Vettel vs. Webber, it seems Ham/Vet excel at the slow speed/traction zones/being precise/turning the car on apex quicker, perhaps from more trail braking, while Ros/Web excel at high speed/holding on/ballsy driving/using G-forces for feedback.

    I am now wondering if there could be an analysis that shows the faster drivers to always excel at this type of slow speed driving, where the most time is gained – Alonso and Raikkonen would have to be the first candidates for that type of analysis, and with Alo/Ham we can get a direct comparison, again matched when Vettel and Raikkonen team up in 2015!

    #279785
    Atticus
    Participant

    Nice and tidy analysis, extremely well-formulated. I agree with your conclusions as well, although I’d especially wish to highlight that point 1 is not surprising and oyu might even have done a lot more work compared to what we can deduct from the car-to-track characteristics we’ve seen so far this year.

    The average speed is a good proxy, I think, but getting into the details one can say that the more flat-out sections and full throttle % a track have, the better Williams will be owing to their extremely efficient aero design and strong power unit. Vice versa, the sheer downforce level of the Red Bull gives them the advantage when there are less of the above features on the tracks.

    Another very good thing to consider – and once again, this correlates with average speeds a bit – are the aero configurations.

    Red Bull sweeps the floor with the Williams on the maximum downforce tracks (Monte-Carlo, Hungaroring, Singapore) and vice versa, Williams is by far ahead on the low downforce (Monza) and the medium downforce circuits (Montreal, Spa). What we generally term as ‘high downforce’ rounds are in fact also two categories, one being closer to the medium levels (Sakhir, Shanghai, Red Bull Ring, Hockenheim, Suzuka, Sochi, Interlagos) and one being closer to the maximum levels (Melbourne, Sepang, Barcelona, Silverstone, Austin, Abu Dhabi). In the case of the former, Williams is closer to or beat Red Bull, in the case of the latter, they generally fall a bit short.

    Furthermore, it’s interesting to note the exceptions: e. g. Red Bull, unusually, ran its low downforce aero kit in Spa, when everybody else ran on medium downforce. This gave them an unlikely advantage over Williams – but the fact that the Williams itself is so aero efficient enabled them to run Montreal and Spa in their usual high downforce configuration and still remain fairly competitive, especially in Montreal.

    And there are a couple of nice car characteristics to cross over as well – e. g. the Ferrari’s fondness of the high-speed corners, the McLaren’s excellent low speed traction and short gearing, the Force India’s short wheelbase and long gearing, etc.

    This season is a goldmine from an engineering point of view due to teams reacting slightly, but – even for the outsiders – noticeably differently to the new rules.

    #279880
    Keith Campbell
    Participant

    @fastiesty @atticus-2 Thanks for your replies. Iestyn – yes you could run the comparison against any of the teams or team-mates, the next thing i would likely look at would be Ferrari vs Williams vs McLaren etc. There probably wouldn’t be much value comparing Alonso and Raikkonen this year since it’s been so one sided you wouldn’t be able to find a pattern on a win/loss comparison – although you could do a time delta comparison on qualifying times and see if you find a trend.

    Atticus – Yes point 1 was so obvious it didn’t really require analysis, but i’ve never actually looked closely at average speeds before so i wasn’t sure where the circuits ranked in relation to each other. For example, I would have thought Abu Dhabi was a bit faster than it turned out to be, but my opinion was based on gut feeling rather than data so it’s nice to have something more scientific to refer to.

    #279881
    Atticus
    Participant

    @keithedin Yeah, average speeds are intriguing. I’ve looked at them ever since I read books of Nigel and Ayrton from the 1980s, where average speeds were often explicitly emphasised for some reason. I like to compare those to nowadays’.

    For example, I also like it, when I stumble upon a strange one, like the Red Bull Ring for this year. I’d have never imagined it’d be that high up on the list alongside Silverstone and Suzuka, given that it has much lower average corner speeds (at least in the first two thirds of the lap) and it arguably has lot much longer straights than Suzuka. What catched me out, I guess, was the short lap and the fact that those full throttle parts are much longer in this relation. (Also, as the previous formula, which ran on the track in 1997-2003 was more of an aero formula than an engine formula, it was ranked a tad lower back then. Last, but not least, the average speeds across the calendar decreased with the Tilkedroms as well, further elevating the Red Bull Ring.)

    #279904
    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @keithedin True, perhaps it would be worth only using the times where Raikkonen seemed to match Alonso, and see what those data points reveal. It looks like Rosberg has a chance in Brazil, so Hamilton will have to win in the USA and Abu Dhabi, where he won in 2011/2012.

    It’s also interesting to see how low Malaysia is on the average speed chart, although it was a wet qualifying, and that there is a general trend of the average speed rising throughout the season! That could really affect how the teams develop throughout the year.


    @atticus
    Imagine how fast the Osterreichring would be now! Even back then they never dropped below 3rd in a 5 gear box….. It was only just second to the original Silverstone for high speed (160 mph vs. 158 mph)

    #288039
    Keith Campbell
    Participant

    Just bumping my own thread for any who are interested to read it – I have updated my average speeds analysis to cover the final three races of 2014 – see below (apologies that the table doesn’t format well on F1F)

    Length (km) 2014 pole (secs) Speed (km/hr) 2nd best team (qualy) Qualy winner of Merc
    1 Monza 5.793 84.109 248 Williams Ham
    2 Spa 7.004 110.511 228 RedBull wet Ros
    3 Austria 4.326 68.759 226 Williams (Merc) Ros
    4 Japan 5.807 92.506 226 Williams Ros
    5 Brazil 4.309 70.023 222 Williams Ros
    6 Britain 5.891 95.766 221 Redbull wet Ros
    7 Germany 4.574 76.540 215 Williams Unknown
    8 Russia 5.848 98.513 214 Williams Ham
    9 Canada 4.361 74.874 210 RedBull (even) Ros
    10 Bahrain 5.412 93.185 209 RedBull Ros
    11 USA 5.513 96.067 207 Williams Ros
    12 Abu Dhabi 5.554 100.480 199 Williams Ros
    13 Spain 4.655 85.232 197 RedBull Ham
    14 Hungary 4.381 82.715 191 RedBull damp Unknown
    15 Australia 5.303 104.231 183 RedBull wet Ham
    16 Singapore 5.065 105.681 173 RedBull Ham
    17 China 5.451 113.860 172 Redbull wet Ham
    18 Malaysia 5.543 119.431 167 Redbull wet Ham
    19 Monaco 3.340 75.989 158 RedBull Ros

    Building on my comments from last time.

    1) Williams improved relative to RedBull in the second half of the season and outqualified the Bulls at two circuits which perhaps previously were in the RedBull ‘window’; USA and Abu Dhabi. This leaves the score at 8-4 to Williams on the 12 fastest tracks (2 of those 4 being wet sessions), and 7-0 to RedBull on the slowest 7 tracks (4 of those being wet/damp).
    2) Rosberg continued his impressive qualifying form in the final three races by securing pole on one fast circuit (Brazil), and two ‘medium speed’ circuits (USA and Abu Dhabi) which could have been in either driver’s preferred range. The final score between the Mercedes duo is therefore 9-2 to Rosberg on the 12 fastest circuits (with Germany being unknown and therefore not counted) and 5-1 to Hamilton on the 7 slowest circuits (Hungary being another unknown).
    3) The final three circuits were all faster than I had anticipated for various reasons but primarily because softer tyre allocations were used than in 2013. It’s difficult to draw direct comparisons, but given that the rule of thumb is that the 2014 tyres of the same specification are one stage harder than the 2013 equivalents, the pole times for these races should give an indication of the 2014 cars’ qualifying performance relative to last year. Brazil was resurfaced so not really useful (and maybe wet last year anyway?) but the times for USA and Abu Dhabi were -0.28% and +0.52% relative to 2013. That’s not too bad considering it’s the first year of the regulations and the scaremongering that was going on about how slow the cars would be before the season started. I accept that the average race speeds are still a fair bit slower because of the fuel restriction and that the cars can’t sustain qualifying engine (ERS) modes for the whole race.

    #288106
    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @keithedin Good to see an update to this thread! I was using it in my predictions for the last three races! It looks like the softer tyre probably helped Nico, and it’s on the harder compounds that Lewis usually hauls him in on in the races.

    I don’t mind the races being slower, as that’s now an ‘economy drive’ for fuel and tyres. As long as qualifying is still “100%”, and we see the full performance of the car then, it might be an improvement actually to show both high performance and fuel efficiency in one weekend.

    Williams have really turned a corner. Their development rate was good, matching the richer teams, and I can see them thumping Ferrari again this year, possibly McLaren-Honda, and maybe matching Red Bull, unless any of them have taken a distinct step forwards before Melbourne.

    #288107
    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    Not to mention the cars too – the 2014 cars improved massively over the season, many seconds per lap.

    This was shown by matching 2013 times in the last few races, being faster at Interlagos via turbo/ERS gains, and Force India being left behind from mid-season onwards, after a mistake in car development held them back.

    There could be big gains again for 2015, with Mercedes confident of finding another 60 hp, and Honda matching their 2014.

    #288130
    BenH
    Participant

    @keithedin you may find this useful for doing tables on forums:
    http://www.sensefulsolutions.com/2010/10/format-text-as-table.html

    Gave me (with a few tweaks) this result for the initial table:

    +----+-----------+--------+---------+-----+----------------+-----+------+
    |    | Race      | Length | Pole    | Spd | Best of Rest   | Qua | Race |
    +----+-----------+--------+---------+-----+----------------+-----+------+
    | 1  | Italy     | 5.793  | 84.109  | 248 | Williams       | HAM |      |
    | 2  | Belgium   | 7.004  | 110.511 | 228 | RedBull        | wet | ROS  |
    | 3  | Austria   | 4.326  | 68.759  | 226 | Williams (1st) | ROS |      |
    | 4  | Japan     | 5.807  | 92.506  | 226 | Williams       | ROS |      |
    | 5  | Britain   | 5.891  | 95.766  | 221 | RedBull        | wet | ROS  |
    | 6  | Germany   | 4.574  | 76.540  | 215 | Williams       | –   |      |
    | 7  | Russia    | 5.848  | 98.513  | 214 | Williams       | HAM |      |
    | 8  | Canada    | 4.361  | 74.874  | 210 | RedBull        | ROS |      |
    | 9  | Bahrain   | 5.412  | 93.185  | 209 | RedBull        | ROS |      |
    | 10 | Brazil    | 4.309  | 75.574  | 205 | predicted      |     |      |
    | 11 | USA       | 5.513  | 99.228  | 200 | predicted      |     |      |
    | 12 | Spain     | 4.655  | 85.232  | 197 | RedBull        | HAM |      |
    | 13 | Abu Dhabi | 5.554  | 102.958 | 194 | predicted      |     |      |
    | 14 | Hungary   | 4.381  | 82.715  | 191 | RedBull        | wet | –    |
    | 15 | Australia | 5.303  | 104.231 | 183 | RedBull        | wet | HAM  |
    | 16 | Singapore | 5.065  | 105.681 | 173 | RedBull        | HAM |      |
    | 17 | China     | 5.451  | 113.860 | 172 | RedBull        | wet | HAM  |
    | 18 | Malaysia  | 5.543  | 119.431 | 167 | RedBull        | wet | HAM  |
    | 19 | Monaco    | 3.340  | 75.989  | 158 | RedBull        | ROS |      |
    +----+-----------+--------+---------+-----+----------------+-----+------+
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