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Alternative history: the 2003 championship without misfortune

This topic contains 7 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by Avatar of Kingshark Kingshark 1 year, 11 months ago.

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  • #131343
    Avatar of Kingshark
    Kingshark
    Participant

    Alternative history: the 2003 championship without misfortune
    The credit of this idea goes to mnmracer.

    My inspiration for this thread was this discussion I had with David-A a couple of days ago -
    http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/groups/f1/forum/topic/schumachers-bad-luck/?topic_page=1&num=15

    Well, it took me two days to write this up, but it was worth-wile. Please feel free to give me feedback and/or start a discussion.

    The 2003 F1 Season was a closely matched, hard fought battle throughout the year. It hold the record as the most winners in a season, 8. We had three legitimate championship contending teams – Ferrari, Mclaren, and Williams. The drivers championship was a 3-way fight between Schumacher, Raikkonen, and Montoya. To an extend, Ralf Schumacher was also in the championship hunt until Germany. So, how would things have turned out if the title contenders did not have any misfortune?

    Grand Prix of Australia
    Raikkonen received a mysterious drive-through which most certainly cost him the victory. A body part of Schumacher’s car flew of which potentially cost him 2nd place. Montoya lost out to Coulthard because he spun by himself. Ralf had a dreadful race.

    2003 Standings:
    Montoya – 8
    Raikkonen – 6
    Schumacher – 5
    Ralf – 1

    Revised:
    Raikkonen – 10
    Schumacher – 8
    Montoya – 5
    Ralf – 1

    Grand Prix of Malaysia
    Raikkonen dominated here. Schumacher scored poorly due his own fault. Montoya was hit from behind after started from the back of the grid. Consider how his teammate Ralf did, starting 17th and finishing 4th, I’m guessing he’d finished 4th himself. Ralf gets pushed back to 5th.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 16
    Schumacher – 8
    Montoya – 8
    Ralf – 6

    Revised:
    Raikkonen – 20
    Schumacher – 11
    Montoya – 10
    Ralf – 5

    Grand Prix of Brazil
    Despite being a chaotic race, I don’t remember any misfortunes for any of these guys. Schumacher and Montoya spun out themselves, Raikkonen lost the lead the Fisichella himself. Ralf made a pitstop only a few laps before the red flag, when he was running 5th.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 24
    Schumacher – 8
    Montoya – 8
    Ralf – 8

    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 28
    Schumacher – 11
    Montoya – 10
    Ralf – 9

    Grand Prix of San Marino
    Montoya had a fuel rig problem here. Now as I consider the average pace of the Williams the race-day, and Mclaren’s superior strategy, I’d say he would’ve only finished one place higher.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 24
    Schumacher – 8
    Montoya – 10
    Ralf – 13

    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 36
    Schumacher – 21
    Montoya – 13
    Ralf – 14

    Spanish Grand Prix
    Raikkonen had a qualifying problem, but looking at the dismal pace of the Mclaren that race weekend, he probably wouldn’t have done much better than 6th, behind the two Williams’s

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 32
    Schumacher – 28
    Montoya – 15
    Ralf – 17
    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 39
    Schumacher – 31
    Montoya – 18
    Ralf – 18

    Austrian Grand Prix
    Schumacher was leading this race. A fire in the pit caused him to fall back to 3rd, he overtook Raikkonen on track for 2nd, race leader Montoya had an oil leak. Without Schumi’s pit fire and Montoya’s oil leak, they would’ve finished 1st and 2nd respectively.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 40
    Schumacher – 38
    Montoya – 15
    Ralf – 20

    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 45
    Schumacher – 41
    Montoya – 26
    Ralf – 21

    Monaco GP
    No misfortunes here. JPM won, Kimi 2nd, Schumi 3rd, Ralf 4th.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 48
    Schumacher – 44
    Montoya – 25
    Ralf – 25

    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 53
    Schumacher – 47
    Montoya – 36
    Ralf – 26

    Canadian GP
    Once again Kimi had qualifying problems, most likely he would’ve done perhaps a bit better. His race pace wasn’t mind blowing. I’m guessing 5th at best, behind Schumacher, the Williams’s, and Alonso.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 51
    Schumacher – 54
    Montoya – 31
    Ralf – 33

    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 57
    Schumacher – 57
    Montoya – 42
    Ralf – 34

    European GP
    Schumacher should NOT have been pushed back on the race track after spinning with Montoya. Raikkonen should’ve won that race, Ralf 2nd, Montoya 3rd.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 51
    Schumacher – 58
    Montoya – 39
    Ralf – 43

    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 67
    Schumacher – 57
    Montoya – 42
    Ralf – 42

    So far, half way the season we’ve got the two championship contenders tied, and the Williams’s tied. Ralf and JMP are still quite a good bit behind Kimi and Schumi, but that will change very soon.

    French GP
    This was an uneventful grand prix. Nothing really happened. Ralf won, JPM 2nd, Schumi 3rd, and Kimi 4th.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 56
    Schumacher – 64
    Montoya – 47
    Ralf – 53

    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 72
    Schumacher – 63
    Montoya – 50
    Ralf – 52

    British GP
    A classic grand prix, it was an overtaking-fest. Ralf had a slow-puncture when he was driving right behind Barrichello, who won the race, and infront on his teammate, who finished 2nd. We can conclude that Ralf most likely would’ve finished 2nd. I don’t remember anybody else having particularly bad luck.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 62
    Schumacher – 69
    Montoya – 55
    Ralf – 53

    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 78
    Schumacher – 68
    Montoya – 56
    Ralf – 60

    German Grand Prix
    The first corner incident was a complete racing incident imo. That would make matter complicated. Montoya was untouchable that weekend, consider the immense pace of the Williams, Ralf probably would’ve finished 2nd. Kimi would’ve finished 3rd. Schumacher had a puncture when he was driving ahead of the two Renaults, he probably would have been 4th.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 62
    Schumacher – 71
    Montoya – 65
    Ralf – 53

    2003 Standings Revised:
    Raikkonen – 84
    Schumacher – 73
    Montoya – 66
    Ralf – 68
    Hungarian Grand Prix
    Despite being a confusing race, I don’t remember any of the top 4 having any bad luck. Alonso was untouchable that day. Both Ralf and JMP had a spin here (their own fault) while Schumacher had a dreadful race.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 70
    Schumacher – 72
    Montoya – 71
    Ralf – 58

    2003 Standings revised:
    Raikkonen – 92
    Schumacher – 74
    Montoya – 72
    Ralf – 73

    Italian Grand Prix
    Ralf missed this Grand Prix weekend due injury. I am guessing, judging by the pace of the Williams that weekend, which was a serious contender; I believe that he at least would’ve finished 3rd behind his teammate. This would bump Barrichello to fourth and Raikkonen to fifth.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 75
    Schumacher – 82
    Montoya – 79
    Ralf – 58

    2003 Standings revised:
    Raikkonen – 96
    Schumacher – 84
    Montoya – 80
    Ralf – 79

    Now things are really heating up.

    American Grand Prix
    This was a controversial race, as both Williams’s did miserable here. However, there’s no denying that it was their own fault. Ralf spun off himself while Montoya couldn’t pass Barrichello without taking him out. Likewise, despite the Bridgestone’s having such an obvious advantage in the rain, Schumacher won fair and square.

    2003 Standings:
    Raikkonen – 83
    Schumacher – 92
    Montoya – 82
    Ralf – 58

    2003 Standings revised:
    Raikkonen – 104
    Schumacher – 94
    Montoya – 83
    Ralf – 79

    Both Williams drivers are out of contention in the penultimate race. Now, this puts both Raikkonen 10 points ahead of Schumacher heading into Suzuka, but Schumacher’s scored far more wins. It’s 6 against 2. Therefore, Raikkonen must not score Schumacher must win here.

    Japanese Grand Prix
    Montoya had a clutch problem when he was leading the race, and most certainly would’ve won. However, this would not have changed the championship itself, as he is already out of contention. Schumacher had a clumsy race in Japan. Poor qualifying followed by hitting Sato in the race; although it wasn’t nearly as bad as Ralf’s, who finished 12th in the best car due no fault of his own. Ultimately, Montoya’s win would demote Raikkonen to third and Schumacher to ninth.

    Like we all know, these were the original 2003 Standings:

    Raikkonen – 91
    Schumacher – 93
    Montoya – 82
    Ralf – 58

    Finally – This would be the final standings of the year. Alternative history: the 2003 championship without misfortune.

    2003 Standings revised:
    Raikkonen – 110
    Schumacher – 94
    Montoya – 93
    Ralf – 79

    It seems that Raikkonen would’ve won that championship by a considerably margin.

    #200586
    Avatar of Pamphlet
    Pamphlet
    Member

    Good thing some people still remember these threads. :(

    Great effort, and it’s nice to see someone pick them up. It’d be interesting to analyze some of the other seasons as well. 2006 comes to mind, as does the entire HAK vs MSC era.

    It’s funny how this means that Kimi should’ve had 3 titles by now. It’s a true testament to his skill. Makes me feel sorry for Hamilton though – he wouldn’t have won any titles up until this point. And we all know how good he is. Alonso probably wouldn’t have won any, either, if my 2006 hunch is right.

    #200587
    Avatar of mnmracer
    mnmracer
    Participant

    I was actually planning to do some more for the summer holiday filler (5 weeks!), though if it’s in high demand I could do 2006 this week.
    Nice work though, and pretty much what I had already anticipated for this season. When I get to it, we can compare results.

    #200588
    Avatar of matt90
    matt90
    Participant

    I guessed Kimi should have come out on top. Quite unfortunate that he seems to have got the majority of his bad luck in his most competitive seasons.

    #200589
    Avatar of David-A
    David-A
    Participant

    I pretty much knew that Montoya didn’t perform any better than either of his championship challengers.

    @pamphlet – I think Alonso would still win 2006 because while Schumacher had an engine blowout in Japan and gearbox in Brazil, Alonso had the wheelnut in Hungary and the engine failure in Italy.

    #200590
    Avatar of Kingshark
    Kingshark
    Participant

    I feel that it’s more interesting to make one of these threads on a season that had 3 or more championship contenders.

    About 2006; I feel Alonso still would’ve won. He had legit bad luck in Hungary, Italy, and China. Of course, Schumi had some bad luck in Japan and Brazil; but overall I still feel Alonso would’ve won it.

    #200591
    Avatar of paulgilb
    paulgilb
    Participant

    The figures that I get using the same proposed positions are:

    Raikkonen – 109 (3 wins)
    Montoya – 99 (3 wins)
    M Schumacher – 92 (6 wins)
    R Schumacher – 76 (1 win)

    (I don’t think Bernie would have been too pleased at this!)

    I notice that Raikkonen has not been given any points for Europe, for instance.

    Random fact about 2003 that I noticed – there were 5 consecutive races (France through to Italy) that were all won from pole by 5 different drivers (if Raikkonen had won in either Europe or USA, it would have been 6).

    #200592
    Avatar of Kingshark
    Kingshark
    Participant

    I notice that Raikkonen has not been given any points for Europe, for instance.

    What! How did I not notice that!

    Fixed.

    2003 Standings revised-revised:
    Raikkonen – 110 – 3 wins.
    Schumacher – 94 – 6 wins.
    Montoya – 93 – 3 wins.
    Ralf – 79 – 1 win.

    It seems that Raikkonen would’ve won that year by a considerably margin.

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