The difference between Alonso and Vettel’s reliability and luck in 2012 was not too great. They both had 2 DNF’s, and while you can argue that Vettel should have won in Valencia without his alternator failing him, Alonso would likely have taken pole, and probably won in Monza without his anti-roll bar failing him.
The real difference between Ferrari and Red Bull in 2012 (of what I’m pushing at) was the speed difference between the two cars. For instance, apart from Malaysia, Barcelona, Spa, Monza, and maybe Canada, I can’t really recall an instance where Ferrari was quicker than RBR. On the other hand, I can easily name over 12 weekends where RBR were faster than Ferrari. That’s quite a large difference in speed, no matter how one tries to twist it.
I know I’ve repeated this quite often, and call me sour if you like, but I still believe that Alonso was the true and more deserving champion of 2012. That being said, I sincerely hope Fernando wins it this season. The idea of Vettel having 4 championships isn’t pleasant, it misinterprets his driving ability, and the statistics give us a false impression on talent. In my eyes he’s no better than Alonso or Hamilton behind the wheel, but he’s been far too lucky with his cars.