F1 Fanatic

Alonso: Has been superb this year, but i will stick to what i’ve been thinking for a long time, once he gets caught in the standings, it will be extremely difficult for him to challenge for the title, and unfortuanately for him, this applies now.

Vettel: Has to be considered the out and out favourite, super car, only 4 points adrift, but still has the threat from Hamilton to take into account.

Raikkonen: Also has been brilliant this season, perhaps shoud’ve won by now, but super consistency has always kept him up there in the standings, however, realistically cant see him fighting for the title with his current machinary

Hamilton: Has had lots and ups and downs, i think his suzuka drive was a very good damage limitation situation as he could easily have slipped outside the points, i think in the end it will end up as a Hamilton V Vettel battle with Alonso’s challenge fading

Alonso: 45%
Vettel: 40%
Raikkonen: 5%
Hamilton: 10%

I would love to see Alonso win, in my opinion he has done much more to deserve it than Vettel. Unfortunately, with the two recent DNFs, Alonso’s chance is slipping away and Vettel is now the favourite.

Alonso: 35%
Vettel: 50%
Raikkonen: 5%
Hamilton: 10%

The car is an important factor here. I think it would be fair to say that over the races since Germany, that Mclaren and Red Bull have been the best cars on the grid, a fact reflected by them having picked up all the race wins between them during this time.

Ferrari in race trim is still decent, which has allowed Alonso and now Massa to pull podiums out of the bad – albeit often as a result of other people’s crashes / car failures.

It’s also true that in most races there is also a red herring on the pace and causing upset to the “BIG 3″ – sometimes Lotus, Sauber, Force India etc…

I’m going to go from least likely to most likely….

Kimi Raikkonnen – 5% chance.

He really needs to win 2 races from somewhere to grab a big haul of points. And if he can do that and retain his knack of finishing in the top 5 or 6 at every race, he has a chance. Realistically though, the car just isn’t strong enough to deliver this result and I suspect he’ll end up 3rd or 4th in the championship. Still a great performance, but he just doesn’t have the car to get it done now…

Lewis Hamilton – 10% chance

The Mclaren has, with the exception of Japan been the fastest car since the German GP, and will still be at the sharp end in the races to the end of the season, in spite of the relatively poor showing at Japan. Hamilton has driven really well this season but dropped crucial points earlier in the year, through bad pit stops, bad luck, and car failures. I feel like he has a similar job to Kimi to do, win 2 races out of the last 5 and finish in the top 3 to 5 in the other three races. He has the car to do it, but will he have the luck and the pace to beat Vettel in every race? I doubt it….

Alonso – 25% chance….

Needs a race win and / or a DNF from Vettel in the last 5 races to give him any chance. Either of these things is possible. The car in race trim is still quick, a fact shown by Massa having easily the 2nd fastest pace at Japan and that has to encourage the Spaniard. However, the fact that Massa was 20 seconds+ behind Vettel cannot be ignored and whilst Japan is a very RBR friendly track, there are others still to come, such as Brazil and i also suspect COTA will suit RBR too… Will extract the maximum from the car, it’s just a question as to whether that will be enough. Without a failure from Vettel, I can’t see him doing it now.

Vettel – 60% chance

Has the best car, the momentum and they’ve sorted qualifying out. We all know that Vettel can’t win races from outside the top 3, but now he doesn’t have to. He’s got a car that should enable him to get in to the top 2 or 3 on the grid from now until the end of the year and I can easily see him winning 2 more races and potentially wrapping up the championship before Brazil. I hope to good God he doesn’t though….

Final championship standings?

Vettel
Alonso
Hamilton
Raikkonnen
Button
Webber

Vettel: 45% – had the fastest car in Japan, and as we saw in that race and throughout last year, he knows how to make the most of that advantage. Red Bull’s double DRS system seems to work well.
Alonso: 35% – still has a lead in points, and judging by Massa’s pace in Japan, still has a car good enough to fight for wins and podiums. Might need a bit of luck though.
Räikkönen: 10% – Lotus seem to have fallen behind in development a little, but promise a raft of upgrades for Korea. It’s make-or-break time for them and Räikkönen. He needs to win a race.
Hamilton: 10% – he has a significant points deficit to the front two now, while McLaren seem to have lost the edge that they had for a few races either side of the summer break. Looking at the races coming up, it’s hard to see where they are going to be strong after Korea.

Right after the GP of Valencia everybody was “ohmygod redbullisagainasecondalapfasterthaneverybody ohmygodseasonover”. Then how dominant were Red Bull in Britain and Germany again? They weren’t.

I also remember that after after Hungary 2003, everyone was super-convinced that Montoya would win the championship after it seemed that Ferrari faded and Williams had the best car. That wasn’t the case for the final 3 races of 03 season, was it?

People love jumping to conclusions so easily. The meme that you’re only as good as your last race is very true for teams and cars too.

It’s a close season, RB’s updates worked this time around, that isn’t a guarantee they will work again at the next set of flyaway’s, like they didn’t work midsummer. It is a mini 5 race championship, Alonso has a 4 point advantage, Vettel has momentum. It’s not over by a long shot.

My previous post was a joke BTW. I honestly believe Alonso’s chances are every bit as good as Vettel’s chances to win the WDC this year. Hamilton not so much, but still plausible. Webber, Raikkonen and Button are just out-siders. The rest have no chance.

@Kingshark Except Suzuka is a good test circuit. Valencia is not. Suzuka is, along with Silverstone and Barcelona, a fantastic test track, and getting the pace to show at somewhere like Suzuka means a lot more than getting the pace in Valencia. The car working in Valencia meant that the car would work in slow point and squirt circuits. The car working in Suzuka pretty much means the car will work on all the remaining flyaways. Only Abu Dhabi has a different setup requirement in that respect – but ironically, cars strong in Valencia and Singapore will be strong in Abu Dhabi.

As for my personal take on this, I don’t think anyone can truly look at this objectively, without any wishful thinking, and say that anyone other than Vettel is the title favorite.

Vettel has over each of his rivals either a car advantage (Alonso, perhaps Raikkonen) or a points cushion (Hamilton), and it will be difficult to overhaul him from there.

Taking a look at the races since the summer break, Vettel is the man on form. Aside from a penalty in Monza, Vettel has raised his game to equal that of Alonso in the last four races. P2 in Spa behind the quick McLaren, and back to back wins in Singapore and Suzuka. He did get a penalty in Monza, but up to that point, he would probably have finished fifth, behind Hamilton, Perez and the Ferraris.

We could be seeing at the youngest 3 time world champion, and only the 3rd champion to ever clinch 3 consecutive titles.

One Grosjean for Vettel, and Alonso will be the favorite again.

Fixed.