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Does Alonso have a realistic chance at the title? (86 posts)

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Guilherme said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

@infernojim

until he wins from outside the top 4 or 5

Here’s a fun fact: Lewis Hamilton never won from outside the Top 4 :P (12 times from pole, 5 from 2nd, 2 from 3rd and 2 from 4th)

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mnmracer said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

until he wins from outside the top 4 or 5

Juan Manuel Fangio has never won from anything but front row.
Lewis Hamilton has never won from lower than p4.
Fernando Alonso has never won from lower than p4 unless helped by crashgate, sudden rain or mechanical issues from the race leader(s).
Ayrton Senna won only twice from lower than p4.

But yes, Vettel needs to win from outside the top 5 to show he is an able driver.

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Kingshark said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

Alonso should be able to give or take even out the points differential between himself and Vettel assuming Abu Dhabi is boring as always. If that is the case, then Ferrari need one helluva car improvement and updates ahead of the USA GP in 3 weeks from now.

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infernojim said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

Alonso won from outside top 4 this season. Rain does nothing to invalidate that.

I’m surprised that hamilton hasn’t done that more though. it feels like he has.

Even so we need to see some “classic vettel” drives where he wins in the face of adversity or recovers from far back to win / the podium.

At the moment i don’t see there being many / any races where you Will look back in 10 years time and say “do you remember that incredible race where vettel….”.

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andae23 said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

At the moment i don’t see there being many / any races where you Will look back in 10 years time and say “do you remember that incredible race where vettel….”.

2007 Chinese GP
2008 Monaco GP
2008 Italian GP
2009 Brazil GP

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Kingshark said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

I think you can add the 2012 Belgian Grand Prix to that, but cut out Monaco 2008 and Brazil 2009 since Sutil and Hamilton & Button took the spotlight away from him for those two respective races, having set in superior performances.

mnmracer, as Infernojim said, Alonso has won outside of the top 7 before, and give me one good reason to why rain should make those wins less credible.

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raymondu999 said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

@kingshark how was Button superior in Brazil 2009? Vettel started behind Button and finished ahead of Button.

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JB said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

Oh please…. will you guys just cut it out with Spa 2012!!! Crashjean took out several top drivers…. I would have loved to have seen SV try and finish where he did with a full grid! It´s easy to point out he finished well when four or more cars didn´t finish the race!
Ok, so he pulled off a few god passes that day but hey… Alonso, Hamilton and others were out, if they would have remained in the race Vettel wouldn´t of had such a comeback… he would have finished third, fourth or even fifth…
Alonso in the other hand made it up to second from 11th before the Alternator failure in Valencia… Now THAT would have definitely still be considered a mega comeback since Valencia is known to be a tough track to overtake in!

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JB said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

Sorry about the double post… on the subject…. yes he does…. Hopefully he will even out things by finishing third if vettel makes it to 9th… then there will be 2 races left… so yeah anything can happen… Alonso would probably win Austin I reckon since it has similar sectors to Silverstone… but Brazil will be the big question mark!

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Kingshark said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

@raymondu999

I didn’t remember the result, but it just felt like Button made more overtakes that race. Perhaps because Vettel was on a one-stopper instead. Ah, well, whatever the case may be.

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Bob said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

Post Abu Dhabi, the gap in the standings is down to 10 points. I’d reassess the odds as:
Vettel – 60%
Alonso – 40%

Barring mechanical failure, Alonso’s race pace looks strong enough to keep him in competition until Interlagos. Add to that the “unknown” factor of Austin – COTA is an unfamiliar track where the teams’ relative pace is unknown, and thus has the potential for varying strategies and surprise results. All this could well throw a spanner into either driver’s title campaign.

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Michael said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

@Bob
Well the odds for Fernando have improved as he’s gone for 3.5-4 down to 3 and 3.5 – That’s 30% chance or thereabout minus profit so probably 15-17.5% would not be out of line.

Vettel 83%
Alonso 17%

Still the odds are very heavily biased towards Vettel

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Mark said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

All it needs is for Vettel to have a DNF and Alonso would take the advantage…. if Vettel finishes on the podium in the remaining races then he’ll probably have it sewn up.

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ShaneB457 said 6 months, 3 weeks ago:

Well today was his chance to eat into the points defecit but because of Vettel’s super drive, I can see the championship becoming out of reach. Austin is certainly going to be a track which suits the Red Bull so I think it will be a Vettel pole and victory. In Brazil, I think Alonso will have a chance to challenge Vettel but I’d say that the points gap will be too big.

However, if it rains in Austin and Brazil, then things will be a bit tighter in terms of performance. So Alonso’s saving grace will be the weather. We’ve seen that the Ferrari is quite good in the wet from earlier in the season.

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Kingshark said 6 months, 2 weeks ago:

According to the Scuderia thread, Ferrari have big updates coming on the car for Austin, they haven’t had such large upgrades to the F2012 since Barcelona. Whatever happens is up to be seen.

There are 10 points between them with 50 up for grabs. If Ferrari can rival Red Bull’s pace for the remaining 2 races, my money is on Fernando to win the championship. If not, then Sebastian will win.

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