Two years ago I would have said Hamilton without a second thought. Recently though, especially last season (and 2010 also), Hamilton has just been in too many scrapes and crashes.
Over one lap, I still think Hamilton has the legs on Button- although not by much- but over race distance Button is a lot consistent, he looks after his tyres better and he doesn’t get into nearly as many crashes as Hamilton.
Button’s main weakness is his qualifying- rarely it’s good enough to get him ahead of Hamilton on the grid. However, we’ve seen on numerous occasions that Button’s consistency and ability to stay out of trouble has seen him finish the race in front of Hamilton.
Last season Button probably did get “lucky” a few times, but that said I think he’s more than capable of matching Lewis Hamilton. McLaren look very strong so far- on a par with Red Bull- and Button has a very good chance of being right at the top by the end of the season. Of course Hamilton will be as well, but I really wouldn’t like to put bets on who will be higher up.