How many championships will Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel win?
12th September 2012, 13:43 at 1:43 pm #132000
I was just wanting views on how many championships these 3 drivers are likely to end up getting;
Alonso: I think Alonso will end his career as a 4 time World Champion
Vettel: I can see Vettel matching Fangio’s 5 World Championships
Hamilton: Hard one to predict but i think Hamilton will also end a 5 times World Champion12th September 2012, 14:15 at 2:15 pm #208916
…so you think these guys will be the only forces over the next 9 years?
I think more likely Alonso could get 4, Vettel would do well to get 4 unless Red Bull dominate again, and I can’t see Hamilton getting more than 2 or 3.12th September 2012, 19:34 at 7:34 pm #208917
I think Alonso will get 4, Vettel 4, and Hamilton 2.12th September 2012, 19:42 at 7:42 pm #208918
Alonso: 4, possibly 5 if his form remains near to how it is at the moment.
Vettel: 4, he’s still young and got 2 under his belt already.
Hamilton: 3, doesn’t seem to consistently be on good form, though with the kind of pace this guy has I’d be surprised if he didn’t get at least 1 more WDC.12th September 2012, 19:57 at 7:57 pm #208919
I think Vettel will end out a 5-time champ at least. Alonso has at least another title in him, possibly a 4th title too. Hamilton i think probably has 1 more title to take.
Note that I don’t think this is necessarily equal to their talents – just that this will be the way things pan out for them.12th September 2012, 19:59 at 7:59 pm #208920
I’d guess Alonso 3, Vettel 4 (more time), Hamilton 2. It’s difficult to see beyond those three for the immediate future, but I’m sure someone new will come along to surprise us. Räikkönen could also win another title if he gets a fast enough car.12th September 2012, 20:02 at 8:02 pm #208921
I think Alonso and Vettel can win roughly three more. With Hamilton, I think he will be a three or four time champion by the time he’s retired.
Actually Fangio is a 4-time champ rather than 5-time, no?
No, he was a five time champion.12th September 2012, 23:08 at 11:08 pm #208922
Hamilton will probably be a 2 time or 3 time world champion. Vettel can quite frankly get 5 titles if not more. He is much more consisent when he gets the best car. He is bound to get the fastest cars at Red Bull or Ferrari (where he will probably end up in the future). Alonso will probably win 2 more titles. So 4 at most for him. Can’t see him carrying the same speed as today for more than 3 years.13th September 2012, 0:06 at 12:06 am #208923
Alonso – 4. Hopefully this year then another right at the end.
Vettel – 5. He’s got two, he’s very young, and he’ll have no problem staying in demand at top teams.
Hamilton – 3. He’s bound to McLaren in my view. He lives and dies with them. If he wins it this year then I think he’ll win 4 and Alonso 3. Hamilton’s the greatest unknown – can everything that he seems to be caught up in (the contract negotiations, ‘strained’ relationship with his team, celebrity lifestyle and over the past few years somewhat inconsistent form) – be overcome? If he can, then who knows?13th September 2012, 0:36 at 12:36 am #208924
I was interested in doing this thread myself, but I’m happy that someone’s done it for me!
Usually, the best way to predict the future is to look at what’s happened so far, and make a prediction of how this era will ultimately end. Thus far, Vettel is 25 and has competed in 94 races. Hamilton is 27 and has competed in 104 races and Alonso is 31 and has competed in 190 races; as Alonso is quite a bit older than the other two he enjoyed a great deal of success before Hamilton and Vettel were even in Formula One.
Disclaimer: I know that what’s happened in the past isn’t necessary a correct indicator, I just want to list some facts to compare these 3 top drivers.
Nonetheless, by far the most logical way to statistically compare the three men is by Vettel’s base and what he’s accomplished so far as he is the youngest and least experienced. He has entered 94 grand prix weekends so far so let’s compare than to Lewis and Fernando’s 94 first GP’s.
In terms of statistics thus-far, Vettel and Alonso are neck in neck after 94 race weekends; both had won 2 WDC’s and WCC’s at that time. However, Vettel had 5 more wins and Alonso 2 more podiums; overall Vettel is slightly ahead of Alonso, and both are ahead of Hamilton by quite a margin.13th September 2012, 4:21 at 4:21 am #208925
@Kingshark – are the podium stats only for P2 P3 finishes, or did you include victories?13th September 2012, 4:29 at 4:29 am #208926
@raymondy999 – I included victories. Podiums in general means you’ve finished in the top 3 and got to spray champagne.
That being said. I predict that all three of them will likely retire at the age of 35 or so. Alonso will be 35 in 2016 and that’s when his Ferrari contract runs out, Hamilton in 2020 and Vettel in 2022. Then, when it’s all said and done I predict this will be what each one of these three men will have accomplished (estimations);
90 Pole Positions
45 Pole Positions
35 Pole positions13th September 2012, 4:33 at 4:33 am #20892713th September 2012, 4:37 at 4:37 am #208928
Vettel is 25, and he’s already third in the # of pole positions at 33. If he races competitive for another decade he’ll have 80-90 poles easily IMO. Ayrton Senna had 65 pole positions but his career was only 10 years and 161 GP’s long. Vettel will likely drive much longer than that.
This pole position record is Vettel’s now, there’s no way he’s losing it. Hell, if he races until he’s 37-39 then I wouldn’t be surprised if his # of pole positions becomes a 3-digit number (100+).
In terms of wins however, I can’t see anyone surpassing Schumacher. His stats are just too good.13th September 2012, 4:40 at 4:40 am #208929
Fair point. I don’t see it happening, personally – but I accept your reasoning.
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