You could say that it’s premature, but I feel that unless Alonso retires at Hungary and Red Bull are first and second, it will be the Spaniard’s championship to lose when they resume at Spa.
If his lead is anything over forty points, with Webber and Vettel constantly taking points off each other/taking turns scoring big points, I can’t see how Alonso won’t be champion come November, even if he hasn’t got the fastest car, the way he picks up points EVERY race, a top five result is a given, he already has one hand on the trophy.
“one hand on the trophy” is very very premature. Historically none of the current top 5 have fallen that far behind Alonso yet. Raikkonen came back from two and a half wins behind in 2007 and Schumacher drew level with two races to go after being a similar margin behind Alonso in 2006. There are still 10 races left so the lead on the Red Bulls isn’t terribly significant and even the 62 point lead on Hamilton isn’t anywhere near decisive given the pace McLaren showed in Germany.
I think Alonso has got it in the bag, as long as he doesn’t have mass retirements. He is just not the sort of bloke who would lose focus and Ferrari are traditionally better at improving the car throughout the season than most teams.
Regarding Hungary, I don’t think it’s relevant who wins. It’s such a random track and there is often a surprise winner there. I’m backing Maldonado or Perez.
Ferrari are traditionally better at improving the car throughout the season than most teams.
Last time they had to develop a disappointing car mid-season, it was 2009, and the end result was a disaster.
A disaster that was a lot better than what they started the season with. Raikkonen took four podiums in a row in the second half of the season as well as a 4th and a 6th. Also, as mentioned above, in 2006 and 2007 Ferrari were able to come back in the second half of the season from a large deficit.
Some people have very short memories, over the last 8 races of 09 (i.e from Hungary onwards) only Lewis Hamilton scored more points than Raikkonen:
The Ferrari was a huge improvement over the rubbish it was at the start of the year, and it was only toward the end of the year they gave up on the development front to focus on 2010.
Anyway in my opinion the championship is by no means sorted even if Alonso does well in Hungary, and a brief look at the championship history over the last 10 years should tell you that. All it takes is one DNF, a driver error or mechanical failure at any track and his lead doesn’t look quite so comfortable.
Raikkonen in 07, Schumacher catching Alonso in 06, Button nearly being caught in 2009; there is still plenty of racing left to do.
It is by no means over, Kimi in 07 was miles back with two races to go and he still won, Alonso was in a good position in 2010 and still lost, but I do think if he consistently finishes in the top 4 he will have it won as long as one man doen’t win all the gp’s if it is shared like the first ten.
I hope he wins, bring it home fernando, 5 years is too long for us and your talent deserves more than 2 world drivers championships.
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