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Lost leads and inherited wins of the last 10 years

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This topic contains 19 replies, has 15 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Jon Sandor Jon Sandor 1 year, 4 months ago.

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  • #133338
    Profile photo of mnmracer
    mnmracer
    Participant

    Suffering two race-ending mechanical failures from the lead last year, Lewis Hamilton must have been relieved to at least bring the Mercedes home to a fourth place finish in Silverstone. Sebastian Vettel was not as lucky, suffering his second race-ending mechanical failure from the lead since Valencia last year when his gearbox stopped working.

    I looked back at the last 10 years, which cover every Grand Prix win from drivers currently on the grid, to see which drivers suffered mechanical failures from the lead, and who were there to pick up the points. If I have overlooked any, feel free to add them.

    I have used the following parameters, which I believe to be the most fair:
    – retirement must be from the lead, or the virtual lead (right after a pit stop from the lead)
    – retirement from the lead while there was another virtual leader does not count
    – only leads from the race count, not qualifying
    – ‘non-mechanical non-driver issues’ include team orders, slow pit stops or being crashed into
    – ‘non-mechanical non-driver issues’ do not include strategic calls

    2013 British Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (gearbox); Nico Rosberg wins
    2013 British Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton has mechanical issues (tire); Sebastian Vettel inherits lead
    2012 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton retires (engine); Kimi Räikkönen wins
    2012 Singapore Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton retires (engine); Sebastian Vettel wins
    2012 European Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (alternator); Fernando Alonso wins
    2011 Brazilian Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel has mechanical issues (gearbox); Mark Webber wins (though many assume it was a hidden team order)
    2011 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (tires); Lewis Hamilton wins
    2010 Korean Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (engine); Fernando Alonso wins
    2010 Australian Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (brakes); Jenson Button wins
    2010 Bahrain Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel has mechanical issues (spark plug); Fernando Alonso wins
    2008 Hungarian Grand Prix: Felipe Massa retires (engine); Heikki Kovalainen wins
    2008 French Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen has mechanical issues (exhaust); Felipe Massa wins
    2007 Chinese Grand Prix: Robert Kubica retires (hydraulics); Kimi Räikkönen wins
    2006 Japanese Grand Prix: Michael Schumacher retires (engine); Fernando Alonso wins
    2006 Hungarian Grand Prix: Fernando Alonso retires (wheel nut); Jenson Button wins
    2005 Canadian Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen retires (hydraulics); Fernando Alonso wins
    2005 United States Grand Prix: Jarno Trulli does not start (tires); Michael Schumacher wins
    2005 German Grand Prix: Giancarlo Fisichella retires (hydraulics); Kimi Räikkönen wins
    2005 European Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen retires (suspension); Fernando Alonso wins
    2005 San Marino Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen retires (driveshaft); Fernando Alonso wins
    2004 Belgian Grand Prix: Fernando Alonso retires (oil leak); Kimi Räikkönen wins
    2003 Japanese Grand Prix: Juan Pablo Montoya retires (hydraulics); Rubens Barrichello wins
    2003 European Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen retires (engine); Ralf Schumacher wins
    2003 Austrian Grand Prix: Juan Pablo Montoya retires (engine); Michael Schumacher wins
    2003 Brazilian Grand Prix: Rubens Barrichello retires (fuel); Giancarlo Fisichella wins

    In the last 10 years:
    – Sebastian Vettel retired from, or lost, the lead 7 times due to mechanical issues
    – Kimi Räikkönen retired from … the lead 5 times …
    – Fernando Alonso retired from … the lead 2 times …
    – Lewis Hamilton retired from … the lead 2 times …
    – Juan Pablo Montoya retired from … the lead 2 times …
    – Rubens Barrichello retired from … the lead once …
    – Giancarlo Fisichella retired from … the lead once …
    – Robert Kubica retired from … the lead once …
    – Felipe Massa retired from … the lead once …
    – Michael Schumacher retired from … the lead once …

    – Fernando Alonso retired inherited 7 wins from a competitor’s mechanical failure
    – Kimi Räikkönen inherited 3 wins …
    – Jenson Button inherited 2 wins …
    – Michael Schumacher inherited 2 wins …
    – Lewis Hamilton inherited 2 wins …
    – Giancarlo Fisichella inherited 1 win …
    – Heikki Kovalainen inherited 1 win …
    – Felipe Massa inherited 1 win …
    – Nico Rosberg inherited 1 win …
    – Ralf Schumacher inherited 1 win …
    – Sebastian Vettel inherited 1 win …
    – Mark Webber inherited 1 win …

    Non-mechanical non-driver issues:
    2012 Brazilian Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton retires (crashed into by Hülkenberg); Jenson Button wins
    2011 British Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel loses the lead (slow pit stop); Fernando Alonso wins
    2010 German Grand Prix: Felipe Massa loses the lead (team order); Fernando Alonso wins
    2010 Turkish Grand Prix: Mark Webber loses the lead (crashed into by Vettel); Lewis Hamilton wins
    2009 European Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton loses the lead (slow pit stop); Rubens Barrichello wins
    2008 Singapore Grand Prix: Felipe Massa loses the lead (pit stop); Fernando Alonso wins
    2008 Belgian Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton loses the win (post-race penalty); Felipe Massa wins
    2008 Canadian Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen loses the lead (crashed into by Hamilton); Robert Kubica wins
    2007 Brazilian Grand Prix: Felipe Massa loses the lead (team orders); Kimi Räikkönen wins

    Conclusion

    In the last 10 years:
    – Sebastian Vettel retired from, or lost, the lead 8 times due to both mechanical and ‘non-mechanical non-driver’ issues
    – Kimi Räikkönen retired from … the lead 6 times …
    – Lewis Hamilton retired from … the lead 5 times …
    – Felipe Massa retired from … the lead 4 times …
    – Fernando Alonso retired from … the lead 2 times …
    – Rubens Barrichello retired from … the lead 2 times …
    – Juan Pablo Montoya retired from … the lead 2 times …
    – Giancarlo Fisichella retired from … the lead once …
    – Robert Kubica retired from … the lead once …
    – Michael Schumacher retired from … the lead once …
    – Jarno Trulli retired from … the lead once …

    – Fernando Alonso retired inherited 10 wins from both competitor’s mechanical and ‘non-mechanical non-driver’ issues
    – Kimi Räikkönen inherited 5 wins …
    – Jenson Button inherited 3 wins …
    – Lewis Hamilton inherited 2 wins …
    – Felipe Massa inherited 2 wins …
    – Michael Schumacher inherited 2 wins …
    – Rubens Barrichello inherited 1 win …
    – Giancarlo Fisichella inherited 1 win …
    – Heikki Kovalainen inherited 1 win …
    – Robert Kubica inherited 1 win …
    – Nico Rosberg inherited 1 win …
    – Ralf Schumacher inherited 1 win …
    – Sebastian Vettel inherited 1 win …
    – Mark Webber inherited 1 wins …

    #238471
    Profile photo of Guilherme
    Guilherme
    Participant

    Amazing work @mnmracer!

    The one thing I noticed is that you considered Barrichello’s 2009 Valencia win as ‘inherited’ from Hamilton. That may be a little blurry, because yes, Hamilton did have a slow stop, but Rubens would have likely won anyway, given that he was running substantially longer than Hamilton and only pitted when he did to cover for a possible safety car that could have been deployed to clean up debris from a tyre failure that happened on Nakajima’s car, some two or three laps before his scheduled pit stop.

    #238472

    Wow. Never realised Alonso had been so lucky in his career!

    #238473
    Profile photo of Dion
    Dion
    Participant

    @Magnificent-Geoffrey And Vettel sure has been unlucky… I was wondering about this statistic since Sunday considering his gearbox and this was really great, thanks @mnmracer !

    #238474
    Profile photo of Michael
    Michael
    Participant

    Fantastic analysis. I wish the statistics were adjusted for wins and poles. For instance, Vettel has retired 7 times but he also has won 29 times and was in pole with the fastest car 39 times. If you are always at the front, your retirements will occur while you are in the lead.

    The last 2 years Hamilton has shattered every record of retiring especially from pole and the lead. His Win/Retirement from the lead must be over 1 essentially he loses more races than he wins. If it’s not 5-to-1 it’s because in some races like Hungary 2012 and Austin 2012 Lewis just drove brilliantly.

    #238475
    Profile photo of Iestyn Davies
    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    I always thought it was interesting how retirements affected the 2003 and 2005 World Championships. Montoya lost 2 wins in 2003, and Raikkonen 1, which would have made it really tight between these two. Similarly, Raikkonen lost 3 wins in 2005, which would have made it tight, although the Nurburgring one seemed slightly self-inflicted at the time. But it would have been close, coming down to the wire in the end. Kimi has lost 2 great shots at the title in a McLaren, and for Lewis, suffering this in 2012 drove him into the arms of Mercedes (arguably a good career move at this point).

    The analysis reinforces how Ferrari’s reliability really helped their dominance period (2000-04), and how Vettel doesn’t seem to have the same (perhaps from pushing the boundaries in 2010), although this is from being in the lead more often than Webber (who hasn’t had many actual mechanical retirements at Red Bull, unlike before, but other problems instead).

    #238476
    Profile photo of Fer no.65
    Fer no.65
    Participant

    2005 German Grand Prix: Giancarlo Fisichella retires (hydraulics); Kimi Räikkönen wins

    That’d be: Raikkonen retires (hydraulics); Fernando Alonso wins.

    And Fisico hardly inherited the win, did he? he overtook the leader properly.

    #238477
    Profile photo of mnmracer
    mnmracer
    Participant

    Oops. Yes, “Giancarlo Fisichella retires (hydraulics); Kimi Räikkönen wins” should be the 2005 Canadian Grand Prix, and “Kimi Räikkönen retires (hydraulics); Fernando Alonso wins” should be the 2005 German Grand Prix.

    As for Fisi, he overtook Kimi, but inherited the win from Barichello. If he hadn’t, Kimi would have inherited it.

    #238478
    Profile photo of Nick
    Nick
    Participant

    2005 United States Grand Prix: Jarno Trulli does not start (tires); Michael Schumacher wins

    I’m kind of on the fence about this one. Schumacher would probably not have won if the Michelin runners raced, but at the same time, Trulli probably would not have competed for the win, as seen at his other poles in Toyotas. Good read, though.

    #238479
    Profile photo of jhg103
    jhg103
    Participant

    The absolute worst one I’ve ever seen was Hakkinen losing the 2001 Spanish Grand Prix. Final lap. Heart breaking.

    #238480
    Profile photo of mnmracer
    mnmracer
    Participant

    Win-wise, I agree.
    Though Luca Badoer breaking down from 5th in Nürbürgring 1999…. now that was heart-breaking.

    #238481
    Profile photo of Aish Heydrich
    Aish Heydrich
    Participant

    tl; dr

    #238482
    Profile photo of R.J. O'Connell
    R.J. O’Connell
    Participant

    @mnmracer Badoer broke down from 4th actually. For him, that was his best shot at championship points. For Minardi, they could have overhauled Arrows for 9th that year.

    Lest we forget Damon Hill in Hungary ’97 as well.

    #238483
    Profile photo of mnmracer
    mnmracer
    Participant

    I felt bad for Damon, but he had won a dozen Grand Prixs and a WDC. For Badoer, this was likely (and ended up being) his only ever chance of scoring points, that’s why it was so heart-breaking.

    #238484
    Profile photo of Kingshark
    Kingshark
    Participant

    Good analysis, but to be honest, I predicted it. Alonso has a history of inheriting wins, while Raikkonen, Hamilton and Vettel have a history of losing them.

    With that being said, one appear to be missing. What about Hungary 2005? Juan Pablo Montoya retired (driveshaft) and Kimi Raikkonen inherited the win.

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