F1 Fanatic

When Fernando Alonso and Ferrari signed multiple year contract, first thing I thought was “WOW! it’s so many years! He should get at least one title during that time unless Ferrari is uncompetitive so long!”

How do you think other drivers? of course I think it’s much down to teams and cars than driver themselves. So it’s also story of their contract. Following is my guess. I’d like to listen your opinion.

Alonso : with Ferrari until 2016. There are 5 and half years left. It’s very long time and longest contract since Michael Schumacher(11 years vs 7+ years). Ferrari is not always the most competitive but usually one of the most. as I mentioned they should make championship winning car at least once until 2016. of course we have 2 season under current regulations and left 3 years will be under new regulations. I don’t know new rules would be bad or good for Ferrari. My guess is he could be triple champion 2012 or 2014.

Massa : with Ferrari until 2012. I’m not sure Ferrari will retain him after that. Maybe someday Massa could be champion but it should not more than once. His chance should be with Ferrari. I don’t think other top teams will bring him, sadly.

Vettel : with Red Bull until 2014. I think he’s the most favorite for this year so I would consider him as double champion. but how many after that? Well it’s all down to car. We know Newey is very genius but his dominance usually doesn’t last long unless there’s no rule changes. They have had superior performance for 2 and half years. but their advantage has been weaken recent. I’m not sure they are still dominant at the start of the next season. Well, he’s still very young and all know he’s very fast. so problem is just whether he can have competitive car or not.

Webber : his contract will be expired at the end of this year. but new one-year contract is likely. I think he will be at Red Bull in 2012. His chance is quite similar to Massa. probably next year(or this year) is his final chance. Webber’s stats are not good as Vettel but he’s catching Vettel slowly. so we have to see the rest of the season. Who knows? in 2012 it is possible he outpace Vettel and win the title!

Hamilton : with Mclaren until 2012. for sure Mclaren duo are quite frustrating now. but I don’t think they have many choices. Ferrari is dead end and I don’t think Hamilton and Vettel would be good team mate. of course it should be the fastest pair in the paddock but very likely to be troublesome. I think his options are Mclaren / Red Bull / Mercedes and Mclaren is the most favorite. but if things not go well even in 2012, I’m sure he will leave. however it’s high risk gamble. If he sticks with Mclaren at least 4 years from now, I think it will give him more chance like Alonso.

Button : with Mclaren until 2012. I believe he’s less frustrating than Hamilton. though he has been suffered from silly mistake or failure recent days but I think he still likes the team(much better stats than Honda in 2007, 2008!) and he’s wise and patient enough to wait. If Hamilton leaves and Button remain then Button has more chance than him. Sorry, I still think Hamilton has upper hand on the championship if they have same winning car but it’s my opinion.

etc : Mercedes duo should have much more competitive car. Will Schumacher get his 8th title? How about Nico? Kubica was always rated so high but now his future is uncertain…

I think formula one has great future in the next years. Arguably three best drivers on the grid – Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel – all look likely to stay with their teams long-term, and they’re all relatively young as well. So we have three best drivers in three best teams for the next years, which promises fantastic battles.

I think it’s a shame that up until 2016 there just aren’t going to be enough championships to go around.

At first, I fully agreed with this, but thinking about it it’s actually the norm. For example, in the late 1990s only three drivers were really championship material: Schumacher, Hakkinen and Villeneuve (though Frentzen popped up one year too). After that it was a choice of Schumacher, Raikkonen and Montoya. Then Alonso came in and we expected it to be him and Raikkonen after Schumacher retired, but Hamilton and Massa stepped up and Alonso was stuck at Renault. And I mean when you think about it, do Webber or Massa deserve a championship on their current form? Rosberg has yet to prove himself to be in the same league (even if he can’t, the fact remains) and Button isn’t covering himself in glory either.

Personally, I think by the end of 2016 we will see:
Alonso 4 champs
Vettel 3 champs
Hamilton 3 champs
Rosberg 1 champ

Possibly minus one from this if Ricciardo is any good in 2015 or something. Of course having said this we’ll probably end up with Romain Grosjean (random name, not a prediction) champion instead, knowing F1!

Obviously this is all my opinion, but this is what I think about who ‘deserves’ what number of championships:

I like Button- he’s possibly my favourite personality, and was originally my favourite driver. However, I do not think he will win another championship, and if he did it would exaggerate his talent. I think one is justified.

Although Hamilton is sometimes too aggressive, he deserves to be a multiple world champion. Probably triple champion or more. I think it’s a shame that Vettel will beat him to becoming a multiple champion, as I believe Hamilton may well be the fastest on the grid and, despite controversy, the best racer too.

Vettel is deserving of being a double world champion- whether he deserves more is a question I would save until I see his performance in a less dominant car. The only win of his I can remember that was in any was inspiring was his first. In comparison, Button’s wins are more often thrilling and spectacular performances, let alone Alonso’s and Hamilton’s.

Webber is a good driver- he proved last year to be better than I previously thought, but I seriously doubt he will win a championship, and I think that based on his current and past performances he doesn’t particularly deserve one. He his in my mind to Red Bull what David Coulthard was to McLaren (I never found Coulthard inspiring, strange considering I am normally patriotic, but admittedly I came into F1 at the end of his winning days).

Alonso deserves at least one more championship. He is often embroiled in controversy, and I don’t particularly like him, but to finish without winning another championship wouldn’t be justice to his talent.

I don’t consider Massa as capable of even winning races any more. To be honest I’ve never rated him. He will never emulate 2008, and then the main reason it came so close were what I believe to be dubious stewards decisions. He reminds me of how Sutil would perhaps perform in a competitive car.

Schumacher has won plenty enough already and doesn’t have the talent to win another. Although I rate Rosberg, I’m not sure I can picture him as a champion- maybe when he gets a car that can challenge, then things might change.

Interesting speculation here Eggry!

I think this year is clear. For next year it depends part on wether Newey can come up with another unexpected “trick” to be ahead again, otherwise I can see Ferrari / Mclaren being right with them from the start. I can really imagine Webber getting it right in that kind of circumstances, if he gets a fast and reliable car under him. Would be fun, and a great last season.

McLaren could be right on it again next year, as they should be able to build on what they have in this years car. But it will be a bit of an uphill battle for Hamilton and Button as they migth end up taking to much points away from each other and not be on top of the rest often enough. I would not rule out a championship for either of them. But I am not sure Button will go on into eternity, he might make room in 2013 or rather for 2014 to let McLaren have Hulkenberg or maybe Glock?

Alonso will dominate in 2012 inside the team, and if they keep building the team I expect their best chance of the championship to be 2013, but he will be close in 2012 as well. From 2013 onwards i expect to see Perez or who knows Bianchi next to him to take over in the long term, or maybe have Rosberg?.

As for Mercedes, i cannot see them getting onto anything special quite yet. They would need a really interesting gimmick to work out for them, and I cant see that coming. Who knows for 2013 or with the new rules in 2014. Its a bit of a dilemma for Nico Rosberg, as he would need at least a win or two next year to maybe try and get into Ferrari or McLaren.

I will rather refrain here from guessing on Kubica’s future prospects. I know he is mentally superstrong, and if that would be desicive he would certainly be back in an F1 car again this year. But with his injuries it might be just a miracle to even get normal control off everything back, let alone the finetuning needed to be as good as ever in F1. I am sure he will be back to racing, but not sure in what cars that will be.