I’d predict an Alonso pole if it is wet. The Ferrari was excellent in the wet last year, and I doubt much will have changed this season. To add to that, if the pull-rod suspension helped Ferrari with the wet conditions, then I’d expect McLaren to be up there as well, given how good Jenson is in the wet.
It would be too close to call though. We barely know the order now, and it already seems extremely close, add in weather…and we could be in for a very topsy-turvy grid.