Here’s what I came up with. I guess it shows how close it could be:
I think looking at this you realise just how open it still really is, as those nine scenarios represent about 1% of all the possibilities that could happen after you throw three more championship contenders, and perhaps Kubica and Massa, into the mix.
@ MG alone with Massa & Kubica I too think Roseberg with an improving Mercedes & the two Williams driver particularly on Saturday can be in the mix as well.
add Alonso to that equation… and Lewis fighting till the end, with Button having to help his team mate (he’s been doing that since China, really)
SO many different scenarios… plus they are heading into a complete new territory on a recently laid tarmac surface. Imagine another rain hitted Interlagos.
It could go incredibly different to what all of us imagine…
Alonso is factored into the equation – he’s on the same points as Vettel. It’s not like he’s doing wonderful things in a dismal car; the F10 is still, at best, second to the Red Bulls.
Put this together very quickly in Excel – it allows you to fill in possible results for the top five drivers in the last three races, it will calculate the points for you and tell you who the champion is!
It may give an incorrect output for the champion if the drivers are tied, though.
I have a scenario for you all;
You are Christian Horner.
Korea result: VET, WEB, ALO
Points after Korea: 238, 221, 231
at Brazil VET and WEB are running 1-2, again with ALO behind in third.
If you tell WEB and VET to swap then ALO will be 27 points behind WEB and out of the WDC, if you leave them as they are then WEB and VET will be equal on points going into Abu Dhabi and ALO is 20 points down with a chance to pull a Prost 86/Kimi 07.
Do you cop the $100,000 fine and secure the championship, or do you risk it and let them race it out?
I would trust my drivers and not make the call. Alonso might be twenty points down going into Abu Dhabi, but he would need to win and have both the Red Bulls finish lower than 7th.
Besides, while Ferrari got hit with a $100,000 fine, there’s no guarantee that the fine for Red Bull would be the same. Especially since there’s a championship on the line – we all know that if Red Bull issued team orders and it put Ferrari out of the WDC, Ferrari would complain about it even if they had just gotten off the hook without penalty for the same charge an hour beforehand.
Nice work Andy fun tool that. Put’s Hamiltons woes into perspective he needs a crash out of Mark Webber at least.
I wanted to see if it was possible for all five drivers to finish level on points. So here’s a scenario I worked out with my spreadsheet.
Race 1: Web P5, Alo P8, Vet P2, Ham P7, But P1
Race 2: Web P6, Alo P5, Vet P8, Ham P3, But P2
Race 3: Web no score, Alo P2, Vet P5, Ham P1, But P7
Alonso would be world champion by virtue of having 4 wins, 3 second places, 2 third places and 2 fourth places, with Hamilton second (4-3-2-1) and Webber third (4-3-2-0). Button would be fourth (3-4-1-3) and Vettel fourth (3-3-3-3).
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© 2014 Keith Collantine