F1 Fanatic

The recent rumours regarding a Webber-Ferrari scenario and PM’s recent mid-season driver replacement thread has prompted the F1Fanatic Silly season.

The drivers already confirmed for 2013 are Vettel at Red Bull, Rosberg at Mercedes, Raikkonen at Lotus, Alonso at Ferrari, Button at McLaren, Glock at Marussia, and de la Rosa at HRT.

Red Bull: Already have Vettel. Webber’s contract expires at the end of 2012; he has been linked with a Ferrari drive. Some rumours have pointed Lewis Hamilton in the direction of Red Bull, but Christian Horner has played down this speculation. It seems as if the STR duo are not ready for a role at Red Bull, but it is too early in the season to tell. Another interesting candidate for a Red Bull seat is Heikki Kovalainen, who has experience with the Renault engine.

McLaren: Button is confirmed, and Hamilton is likely to be retained as him teammate. If not, Paul di Resta is an option for McLaren.

Ferrari: While Alonso is onboard, Massa is surely not. There’s a high probability he will be sacked at the end of the year, and his successors could be Sergio Perez or Mark Webber.

Mercedes: Rosberg renewed his contract and will stay with the Mercedes team, but Schumacher does not have a 2013 contract. Should the latter decide to truly retire, his replacements include Mercedes protegee Paul di Resta, and hungry backmarkers Heikki Kovalainen and Timo Glock (assuming the latter can wriggle his way out of his Marussia contract).

Lotus: Raikkonen’s two-year deal stretches into 2013, but there many choices for his teammate. The most logical choice is to retain Grosjean, but Lotus have ties to a number of promising rookies including FR3.5 title candidates Richie Stanaway and Kevin Korjus, Lotus’ GP2 star James Calado, and the very quick DAMS duo of Felipe Nasr and Davide Valsecchi. It will be interesting to see where Lotus place them.

Force India: Paul di Resta could leave for Mercedes or even McLaren, although the former is more probable. Jules Bianchi has a probable chance of driving for the team in 2013, but the same cannot be said for Hulkenberg unless he steps up his performance and goes shopping for sponsors. If not, Bruno Senna could potentially buy his way into the team.

Sauber: If Sergio Perez leaves for Ferrari, his place will be taken by Esteban Gutierrez. Kobayashi carries little sponsorship money and has been overshadowed by Sergio Perez’s Malaysian GP drive, so his seat could be taken by Bruno Senna.

STR: Are very likely to retain their driver pairing. I honestly doubt either one is ready for an RBR seat and I also doubt Helmut Marko will promote Lewis Williamson or the “loser” Buemi, as described by Marko.

Williams: Maldonado’s cash flow will guarantee him a 2013 seat while Valtteri Bottas will replace Bruno Senna. That’s that, really.

Caterham: The hard-working Kovalainen has been mouthwatering for a competitive car, so he could leave. Meanwhile, Petrov is doing a reasonably good job and carries a mountain of roubles for him team. Kovalainen’s successor, if needed, will be American Alexander Rossi; an ideal fit for a calendar with two races in the States.

Marussia: Glock could retire to the DTM or try his luck at campaigning for an opening at McLaren or Mercedes, but he’s bound by a contract. John Booth has expressed interest in retaining Charles Pic, but he also said the same about Lucas di Grassi and Jerome d’Ambrosio. In the circumstance one or two of them leave, Marussia have an able GP2 pairing of the vastly-improved Max Chilton and Indonesian ace Rio Haryanto.

HRT: Have Pedro de la Rosa on board for 2013, but Karthikeyan looks set to be replaced by Dani Clos. Davide Valsecchi could also fit in their driver line-up equation.

I wonder if Maldonado will be able to continue paying next year?

The agreement between Williams and PDVSA is a multi-year deal.

Isn’t there some scandal around his payment in Venezuela?

Nothing has come of it.

Surprisingly I find myself in the predicament of agreeing just about 100% with @prisoner-monkeys except with Marussia. I think Glock-Haryanto is a more probable lineup.

I don’t know about Kovalainen though. He’s a tough one to read. He could have used his stellar 2011 (and if he repeats in 2012) to sell himself to a big team, in which case I can see him joining any of the 4 winning teams of 2012 sofar (or making an Enstone comeback). Or he could think moving now would just mean he toiled for nothing, and choose to build up the team further – one that would favor his Wikipedia entry quite a bit.

If Raikkonen does, indeed, end up partnering Vettel

I just can’t see Raikkonen going to Red Bull. Especially if Lotus continue to produce strong cars – Raikkonen will have a chocie between either leading a team with a good car, or competing with Vettel in a team with a good car.

Every time I hear the suggestion that Raikkonen will go to Red Bull, I have a lot of trouble seeing beyond the fan motivations. I can’t see any substance to it other than Raikkonen’s fans trying to convince themselves (and everyone else) that Raikkonen will join the team and start fighting for World Championships.

Why would Pic be thrown out? He’s got a moderate sponsorship and he’s very strong.

His GP2 record is a bit patchy. At the end of last year, he was second overall going to Monza. Leaving Monza, he was fifth.

I figured his partnership with Red Bull was more than just him joining their rally team?

Then why didn’t they continue to sponsor him in 2011?

When Red Bull backed Raikkonen in 2010, it was because Raikkonen drew a lot of attention when he joined the WRC. A former Formula 1 World Champion had joined the category – nothing like that had ever happened before. So Red Bull pounced on him to get more marketing potential out of it. When Raikkonen proved to be largely off the pace, they ended their sponsorship. They never sponsored Raikkonen in 2011, and he never entered negotations with Red Bull or Toro Rosso for a seat in 2012.

When the sponsorship was first announced, a lot of people thought it was Red Bull marking Raikkonen as one of their own, preparing him for a comeback. But since it never eventuated, it’s hardly proof that they’re eyeing him off for a 2013 seat.

And plus, Raikkonen is definitely in the championship fight this year, if Lotus’ performances are anything to go by.

So why would he go to Red Bull? Red Bull is very much Vettel’s team at the moment. Why is that suddenly going to change for Raikkonen? And why would he be interested in going there if Lotus’ development keeps producing a good car? All he is going to get from going to Red Bull is a headache.

Also, I think it’s a massive assumption to say that he is a championship contender this year. We’re only four races in and Lotus are – at best – third on the road behind McLaren and Red Bull. Furthermore, Mercedes have proven that they have pace and Ferrari are confident their have their handling issues sorted, so at worst, Lotus could be fifth on the road. So while Raikkonen might be a championship contender, he is an outside chance at the moment, and he probably needs a few results to go his way if he wants to stay in the fight.

Early days, but here we go.
McLaren – Hamilton and Button both stay.

Ferrari – Alonso obviously stays, after an impressive 2012, Perez replaces Massa.

Red Bull – Vettel remains at RBR, Webber is not offered a seat and retires. Raikkonen takes the second RBR seat.

Mercedes – Rosberg stays, Schumi retires after a dismal season, is replaced by diResta after a strong 2012.

Lotus – Raikkonen becomes tired of being team leader and development work, he starts to consider quitting F1 again but moves to Red Bull in a situation where he can simply arrive and race hard. Grosjean is maintained and Jaime Alguersuari is called up to replace Raikkonen. (Apparently last year he turned down a Lotus drive because he thought he was safe at STR).

Williams – Maldonado stays, Senna is replaced by Valteri Bottas.

Sauber – Kobayashi stays, Perez replaced by Gutierrez.

Force India – Hulkenberg stays, Bianchi replaces diReta after winning the FR3.5 championship.

Toro Rosso – Ricciardo and Vergne are both maintained after equally solid but far from amazing seasons.

Caterham – Kovalainen stays, Petrov performs well but is replaced by Alex Rossi.

Marrussia – Petrov takes his money to the Russian team alongside Glock.

HRT cease to exist.

Adrian Sutil will be back for 2013, maybe even at Ferrari.
And Timo Glock will get a better seat, maybe at Force India.

@magon4 – Just a few weeks ago, everyone was talking about how Jaime Alguersuari lost his seat at Toro Rosso because he impeded Sebastian Vettel during free practice in Korea. While I very much doubt that that incident alone cost Alguersuari his seat, it does highlight the attitude at Red Bull. But now that people are discussing the prospect of Kimi Raikkonen moving to Red Bull, they’re suddenly the fairest team on the grid?

Sorry, but that doesn’t truck with me.