F1 Fanatic

I still have my doubts about Hamilton moving from Mclaren, especially if their car continues to be dominant for the remaining 7 races!

However, if we assume that it does happen, and also that Ferrari ditch Massa and that Schumi retires (because those three thing open up the most opportunity for change!

I think it will go something like this:

Red Bull – Webber and Vettel
Ferrari – Alonso and Perez
Mercedes – Hamilton and Rosberg
Mclaren – Button and Hulkenburg / Kimi / Di Resta
Lotus – Kimi and Grosjean – unless Kimi goes to Mclaren (very long shot), in which case they might take Senna / Massa
Sauber – Kobayashi and maybe Kovaleinen / Massa?
Force India – Bianchi and Di Resta (if he doesn’t move) / Hulkenburg (if he doesn’t move!!).
Williams – Maldonado and Bottas

F1 2013 (Updated Predictions)

Ferrari
1. Fernando Alonso
2. Heikki Kovalainen

Alonso is confirmed, so there will be no change there. It looks almost certain that Massa will go, and so Ferrari need a replacement. Perez looks the perfect fit, but di Montezemolo keep’s insisting he’s not ready. There has to be something else to this, and my belief is that Vettel really does have a pre-contract with Ferrari for 2014, and so Luca doesn’t want to take Perez on board, only to offload the potential future World Champion a year later. I think they are instead grooming Perez to take over from Fernando when the Spaniard eventually hangs up his helmet. This means they need a stop-gap driver for 2013, but they can’t afford another poor season, like the one Massa’s having, and so they need a reliable driver. di Resta and Hulkenberg, while both have been linked, are too inconsistent, and only Hulkenberg has really shown he can fight it at the front, and he hasn’t even done amazingly. Schumacher’s name has been thrown into the hat, but this would just be weird. I can’t see Raikkonen returning, nor can I see Lotus letting either of their drivers go anyway. Kobayashi would have been in with a shout, but his season has been unspectacular to say the least. Maldonado could slot in nicely for a season with his speed, but I highly doubt Ferrari would waste so much money on spare parts, and anyway, he’s signed with Williams for 2013. Pic has outperformed Glock, really putting into doubt whether Timo can cut it anymore, but the young Frenchman is too inexperienced, surely? Ferrari could go with another from their young driver academy, Jules Bianchi, but he has been less than impressive in his Firday outings, and I can’t see Ferrari risking a rookie. This all leaves Heikki Kovalainen. Consistently the best of the new teams, and really deserving of another shot at the front. The only problem is, he’d want to have a good season to re-ignite his career, but he’d have to play second fiddle to Fernando.

McLaren
3. Lewis Hamilton
4. Jenson Button

JB is confirmed, so no change there, but a lot of who-ha has been started by Eddie Jordan, claiming Hamilton will move to Mercedes. I personally, really hope this doesn’t happen, but I can’t see it. Surely Lewis, even for an extra $25/30m, wouldn’t leave a front running team, to join one that could very well slip behind, even Sauber, in this years Championship. He’s been with the team since he was smaller than an F1 car, and for 2013 at least, his best bet is to stick with McLaren. A move to Mercedes for 2013 would be just stupid, and surely, even Lewis isn’t that silly?

Red Bull
5. Sebastian Vettel
6. Mark Webber

Nothing to write here, both are confirmed.

Lotus
7. Kimi Raikkonen
8. Romain Grosjean

Raikkonen is confirmed for 2013, and Grosjean might as well be. He’s managed by the team manager’s company, and he’s put in solid performances, on the few occasions when he’s made it to the chequered flag…

Sauber
9. Sergio Perez
10. Jaime Alguersuari

With Ferrari declining to offer Perez a contract, and Lewis remaining at McLaren, Sauber is Perez’s best offer. He’s happy, they’re happy, happy days. Kobayashi however has been poor this year, and I wouldn’t be at all to surprised to see him and Sauber part company. A suitable replacement for Kamui would be Heikki, but his future looks red to me, at least for the moment. There aren’t many more top drivers around for Sauber, but Alguersuari is a solid bet. He was never sluggish at Toro Rosso, and like Perez, can preserve the tyres. He is also super confident of a return for 2013. A solid team in my eyes.

Mercedes
11. Nico Rosberg
12. Michael Schumacher

Nico is confirmed, and Michael decides he wants to stick around, believing that 2014, with the engine regulation changes, will be a good year for Mercedes. Mercedes can’t be seen to sack him, because this would be very bad press. A two-year deal for the 7-time Champ.

Williams
14. Pastor Malonado
15. Valtteri Bottas

Maldonado has a contract, Bottas might as well. I like Senna and think, in my own personal opinion, he has done a better job. But I can’t him staying, what with Williams rating Bottas so highly.

Force India
16. Nico Hulkenberg
17. Paul di Resta

Both Force India’s drivers have contracts for 2013, but the team have said they will let them go if a big team comes calling.

Toro Rosso
18. Jean-Eric Vergne
19. Daniel Ricciardo

Both will be kept to evaluate them more.

Caterham
20. Alexander Rossi
21. Giedo van der Garde

With Heikki off to Ferrari in 2013, Caterham are a driver down. If I’m right in thinking, the Russian government has also pulled Vitaly’s funding, meaning Petrov could well find himself down the road as well. This means Caterham need two drivers. Alexander Rossi has been with the team for a while, and seems a perfect fit, as does their GP2 driver Giedo van der Garde.

Marussia
22. Timo Glock
23. Charles Pic

Glock is confirmed for 2013, and Pic has outperformed him. Why would he not be resigned? Because it appears to be Marussia’s mantra to have a revolving second seat? Maybe, but Pic has done more than enough in my book to keep it.

HRT
24. Pedro de la Rosa
25. Davide Valsecchi

de la Rosa has a contract, and I can’t see Karthikeyan being kept, again. Valsecchi, as it looks like he will be GP2 Champion, will be looking for an F1 seat, and it would be a major boost for HRT to have the latest GP2 Champ on board. It would be a major boost for HRT to have any kind of Champ on board… It would be a major boost to HRT if… no, let’s not get carried away.

So Count Monty recently was asked about Perez, and while completely denying Perez-to-Ferrari 2013, it seems he shifted the conversation to Vettel instead?
Here’s what he said, according to an article I read:

I think that Vettel is more or less in the condition like when Michael was in Benetton. He’s young, he’s a very good driver and he’s making a very good experience. So this could be, of course in the theory, but if you have to ask me a name I have to tell you this name

I don’t have to remind people of what happened after Schumacher won 2 titles with Benetton, of course…

@Estesark I totally forgot about Alguersuari. He should be in for a shot with a team right?

I predict the 2013 driver line up to resemble something similar to this compiled list:

Red Bull: Vettel and Webber.
McLaren: Button and Hamilton.
Ferrari: Alonso and Kovalainen.
Mercedes: Rosberg and Hulkenberg.
Lotus: Raikkonen and Grosjean.
Force India: Di Resta and Razia.
Sauber: Kobayashi and Perez.
Williams: Maldonado and Bottas.
Toro Rosso: Ricciardo and Vergne.
Caterham: Petrov and Rossi.
Marussia: Glock and Pic.
HRT: De La Rosa and Clos.

@portugoose – Putting Rossi alongside Petrov would make for some interesting promotional material for the US races, playing up to the old US-Soviet rivalry.

Anyway, here are my predictions for 2013:

MSC Mercedes
1 – Lewis HAMILTON
2 – Nico HULKENBERG

Michael Schumacher retires and buys into the team, which is renamed to include his name. Lewis Hamilton is secured, but the bigger surprise is the dumping of Nico Rosberg. Instead, the team takes Nico Hulkenberg as their second driver.

Red Bull Racing (Renault)
3 – Sebastian VETTEL
4 – Mark WEBBER

As expected, there are no changes at Red Bull. Vettel and Webber stay in place, though Sebastien Buemi is let go as the team’s testing and reserve driver and replaced by Antonio Felix da Costa.

Vodafone McLaren Mercedes
5 – Jenson BUTTON
6 – Sergio PEREZ

With Hamilton gone, McLaren pounce on Sergio Perez, triggering Buttongate 2.0 (ironically, it does not involve Button). Ferrari attempt to block Perez’s move, but the FIA’s contract review board rules that as Ferrari did not offer Perez their vacant seat, they have no power to control his career progression.

Scuderia Ferrari
7 – Fernando ALONSO
8 – Nico ROSBERG

Despite being offered a 2013 contract, Felipe Massa decides to retire, and it soon comes to light that Sebastian Vettel has signed a pre-contract with Ferrari for 2014. This creates a conundrum, as Ferrari need someone to stand in for a year. The answer is Nico Rosberg. Unceremoniously dumped by Mercedes, he moves to Maranello and manages to get a contract that secures him a seat for 2014 if certain conditions are met, creating an interesting showdown for the year.

Lotus F1 (Renault)
9 – Kimi RAIKKONEN
10 – Romain GROSJEAN

Lotus’ driver line-up remains unchanged, leading to some questioning the philosophy after they fail to win a single event in 2012 – especially after the points tally shows that a single win would have made Kimi KRaikkonen World Champion. Grosjean is retained, but is kept on a much shorter leash, with Kevin Korjus at the ready to take over if needed.

Sauber F1 (Ferrari)
11 – Kamui KOBAYASHI
12 – Heikki KOVALAINEN

With Sergio Perez moving to McLaren, Sauber take Heikki Kovalainen despit a last-ditch effort from Bruno Senna to get the seat. The team also take on British Formula 3 champion Felix Serralles and test and reserve driver after deciding that Esteban Gutierrez needs more work.

Force India (Mercedes)
14 – Paul DI RESTA
15 – Robert WICKENS

Ferrari push hard to get Jules Bianchi into Force India in 2013, but Mercedes use their relationship with the team to put Robert Wickens into the team for a long-overdue debut. Meanwhile, angered that he was not considered for the McLaren or Mercedes vacancies, Paul di Resta declares his intentions to beat Sergio Perez and Nico Hulkenberg in 2013 and prove those teams wrong.

Williams (Renault)
16 – Pastor MALDONADO
17 – Valterri BOTTAS

As many people predicted, Valterri Bottas is promoted for 2013, with Pastor Maldonado keeping his seat. Bruno Senna is left out in the cold, and is forced to shop around for a seat elsewhere.

Scuderia Toro Rosso (Ferrari)
18 – Jean-Eric VERGNE
19 – Daniel RICCIARDO

As with parent team Red Bull, Toro Rosso make no changes to their line-up. Curiously, GP3 champion Mitch Evans is taken on-board as the team’s test driver despite having no connection to Red Bull, fuelling rumours that Mark Webber will retire at the end of 2013 and start running Toro Rosso under the Arden International banner.

Caterham F1 (Renault)
20 – Vitaly PETROV
21 – Alexander ROSSI

Petrov’s sponsorship runs out, but he is given a stay of execution by Kovalainen’s departure, with the team deciding that continuity within the team is more important than funds. Once he secures the seat, Roman Abraumovich injects a little extra cash. Alexander Rossi takes the second seat.

Marussia F1 (Cosworth)
22 – Charles PIC
23 – Max CHILTON

Marussia finally (and easily) beat HRT to eleventh in the World Constructors’ Championship, but Timo Glock is fed up with the lack of progress and moves to the DTM. Charles Pic retains his seat, while Max Chilton brings fifty million Euros in sponsorship to the team. However, both are considered journeymen, and the team reportedly has their eye on Rio Haryanto and Tio Ellinas for 2014.

Dream Team Zhonghua (Cosworth)
24 – MA Qinghua
25 – Pedro DE LA ROSA

HRT secure funding from China, and with it, a name change. Now known as “Dream Team Zhonghua” (“Zhonghua” being a traditional Chinese name for China), the team puts Ma Qinghua in one seat and keeps Pedro de la Rosa in the second, but a queu of pay drivers is believed to be lining up should one of the two be dropped.

Do you believe Mark Webber will leave the team at some point between now and next year?

Of course not. That’s why I said “expected”.

Hmmmm…. Everyone is assuming that Schumacher is the one Hamilton will replace, I think Rosbergs seat is much more vulnerable than people think. He has been outclassed by the old boy in the second quarter of the season, in fact China aside, I don’t think he has out-driven Michael at any race race this year, and MS was running him pretty close in China before he retired with his wheel problem.