F1 Fanatic

Alguersuari also seems pretty confident that he’ll be on the grid next year.

Given the unpredictability of this year, we’ll have to wait until the end of the year to truly judge each drivers’ performance. Some drivers, such as Button and Maldonado, have had really high and low points (both are locked in by contracts but they are great examples of varying performance) so no one knows if Hulkenberg or Massa will achieve impressive wins this year. And then there is Michael Schumacher, who’s been really unfortunate this year despite showing tremendous pace. A win or two could keep him motivated and on board for 2013. There are also the dramas between Raikkonen with Lotus and Hamilton with McLaren, which are most likely exaggerated by the press in order for a good read. All of these are factors that must be revisted at the end of the season. It’s still amusing to specualte the grid and read other readers’ predictions.

Without a doubt, the biggest story will revolve around the identity of Alonso’s teammate. Massa is definitely out, given the Italian press’ scathing comments on him. Vettel, Webber, and Perez have all been linked with the seat, and all three have played it down. But, if one of the three is to succeed Massa, it poses questions. Who will take the second Red Bull seat if Vettel or Webber leave? Will it be the inexperienced Vergne, Ricciardo, or possibly even Raikkonen or Hamilton given the marketing potential of the last two? If Raikkonen takes the RBR seat (absurdity, many of you think to yourselves!), who will partner Grosjean? Kovalainen, Hulkenberg, Kobayashi? Or what about Lewis Hamilton? If Perez leaves to Ferrari, will Kobayashi stay and partner Kovalainen or Hulkenberg? Or will Esteban Gutierrez replace Kobayashi? All of these predictions may sound ridiculous, but wasn’t the Raikkonen comeback surprising?

I wasn’t aware Ferrari’s driver line-up was decided by the Italian media.

The Italian F1 press generally has quite the influence on Ferrari. Ferrari take their criticism to heart, especially when they are underperforming. Yes, Ferrari are one of the few teams that actually listens to the critics (but only if they are from Italy, of course).
Anyway, that’s not the main reason to why Massa will most likely be out of Ferrari at the end of this season. December 2011 Luca Di Montezemolo himself stated that Felipe will have to raise his game for 2012, or else. Has he really been any closer to Alonso this year? No, and he doesn’t have a contract for 2013 either, nor do Ferrari seem in a hurry to offer him one.
But then again, Di Montezemolo also stated that Perez is too young and inexperienced for Ferrari. So who else can replace Massa? Given the most recent rumours, Webber seems like the most likely candidate for that seat.

Ferrari aren’t stupid enough to always listen to the Italian press. They said the exact same things about Massa after his two early retirements in 2008, and we all know what happened next.

Here is what I think:

Red Bull:
a) Sebastian Vettel
b) Heikki Kovalainen

McLaren:
a) Jenson Button
b) Lewis Hamilton

Ferrari:
a) Fernando Alonso
b) Mark Webber

Mercedes:
a) Nico Rosberg
b) Paul di Resta

Lotus:
a) Kimi Raikkonen
b) Romain Grosjean

Force India:
a) Adrian Sutil
b) Vitaly Petrov

Sauber:
a) Sergio Perez
b) Timo Glock

Toro Rosso:
a) Daniel Ricciardo
b) Jean-Eric Vergne

Williams:
a) Pastor Maldonado
b) Kamui Kobayashi

Caterham:
a) Giedo van der Garde
b) Alexander Rossi

HRT:
a) Pedro de la Rosa
b) Dani Clos

Marussia:
a) Charles Pic
b) Robert Wickens

Red Bull:
Vettel/Webber

McLaren:
Hamilton/Button

Ferrari:
Alonso/Perez

Lotus:
Grosjean/Raikkonen

Sauber:
Gutierrez/Kovalainen

Williams:
Maldonado/Bottas

Mercedes:
Rosberg/Schumacher

Force India:
Hulkenberg/(Bird OR Bianchi)

STR:
Vergne/Ricciardo

Caterham:
Petrov/A. Rossi

Marussia:
Pic/Haryanto

HRT:
de la Rosa/Clos

Obviously these are guesses, although I’m not sure where Glock fits in. He might be a Force India candidate if Hulkenberg goes to Sauber and di Resta goes to Mercedes (the latter scenario is more likely IMO). John Booth expressed interest in retaining Pic, and both Bird and Bianchi are in contention for F1 seats.

I think Sauber is probably the most-likely of the three, but only if both Kobayashi and Perez move on. If Perez leaves the team, Estaban Gutierrez will probably take his seat. I could see Sutil replacing Kobayashi if he leaves because the team is smart enough to know that you need continuity in the team when you replace a driver. If both drivers leave, that continuity isn’t possible, so the next-best alternative is to find an experienced driver. Sutil and Gutierrez sounds like a pretty reasonable combination to me. It’s just a question of where Kamui Kobayashi would go. It wouldn’t surprise me if he found a place at Williams; I think he’s one of the three drivers on the grid (the others being Alonso and Hamilton) that really embody the spirit of a Williams driver. You never know – if McLaren and hamilton go their separate ways, we could see Hamilton and Kobayashi at Williams, which would probably become a fan favourite.