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F1 discussion

Simple way to rank F1 seasons

This topic contains 12 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by Avatar of pH pH 11 months ago.

Viewing 13 posts - 1 through 13 (of 13 total)
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  • #133758
    Avatar of
    Anonymous

    I’ve been ruminating about a one number to quantify how competitive the past F1 seasons are. Here’s what I have come up with. Dominance % is just Points gap/Total points scored. How does this feel intuitively. Would you say these seasons below were the most competitive? Any qualitative thoughts welcome.

    Season Driver Team Engine Tyres Poles Wins Podiums FL Points Races Pt. Margin Domination
    1984  Niki Lauda  McLaren* TAG M 0 5 9 5 72 16 0.5 1%
    2007  Kimi Räikkönen  Ferrari* Ferrari B 3 6 12 6 110 17 1 1%
    2008  Lewis Hamilton  McLaren Mercedes B 7 5 10 1 98 18 1 1%
    2012  Sebastian Vettel  Red Bull* Renault P 6 5 10 6 281 20 3 1%
    1994  Michael Schumacher  Benetton Ford G 6 8 10 8 92 16 1 1%
    1976  James Hunt  McLaren Ford G 8 6 8 2 69 16 1 1%
    2010  Sebastian Vettel  Red Bull* Renault B 10 5 10 3 256 19 4 2%
    1981  Nelson Piquet  Brabham Ford G 4 3 7 1 50 15 1 2%
    2003  Michael Schumacher  Ferrari* Ferrari B 5 6 8 5 93 16 2 2%
    1958  Mike Hawthorn  Ferrari Ferrari E 4 1 7 5 42 11 1 2%
    1964  John Surtees  Ferrari* Ferrari D 2 2 6 2 40 10 1 3%
    1999  Mika Häkkinen  McLaren Mercedes B 11 5 10 6 76 16 2 3%
    1986  Alain Prost  McLaren TAG G 1 4 11 2 72 16 2 3%
    1961  Phil Hill  Ferrari* Ferrari D 5 2 6 2 34 8 1 3%
    1988  Ayrton Senna  McLaren* Honda G 13 8 11 3 90 16 3 3%
    1983  Nelson Piquet  Brabham BMW M 1 3 8 4 59 15 2 3%
    1997  Jacques Villeneuve  Williams* Renault G 10 7 8 3 81 17 3 4%
    1974  Emerson Fittipaldi  McLaren* Ford G 2 3 7 0 55 15 3 5%
    1979  Jody Scheckter  Ferrari* Ferrari M 1 3 6 0 51 15 4 8%
    1990  Ayrton Senna  McLaren* Honda G 10 6 11 2 78 16 7 9%
    2006  Fernando Alonso  Renault* Renault M 6 7 14 5 134 18 13 10%
    1967  Denny Hulme  Brabham* Repco G 0 2 8 2 51 11 5 10%
    1950  Giuseppe Farina  Alfa Romeo Alfa Romeo P 2 3 3 3 30 7 3 10%
    1956  Juan Manuel Fangio  Ferrari Ferrari E 6 3 5 4 30 8 3 10%
    1970  Jochen Rindt  Lotus* Ford F 3 5 5 1 45 13 5 11%
    1982  Keke Rosberg  Williams Ford G 1 1 6 0 44 16 5 11%
    2009  Jenson Button  Brawn* Mercedes B 4 6 9 2 95 17 11 12%
    1959  Jack Brabham  Cooper* Climax D 1 2 5 1 31 9 4 13%
    1998  Mika Häkkinen  McLaren* Mercedes B 9 8 11 6 100 16 14 14%
    2005  Fernando Alonso  Renault* Renault M 6 7 15 2 133 19 21 16%
    1987  Nelson Piquet  Williams* Honda G 4 3 11 4 73 16 12 16%
    2000  Michael Schumacher  Ferrari* Ferrari B 9 9 12 2 108 17 19 18%
    1953  Alberto Ascari  Ferrari Ferrari P 6 5 5 4 34.5 9 6.5 19%
    1951  Juan Manuel Fangio  Alfa Romeo Alfa Romeo P 4 3 5 5 31 8 6 19%
    1980  Alan Jones  Williams* Ford G 3 5 10 5 67 14 13 19%
    1996  Damon Hill  Williams* Renault G 9 8 10 5 97 16 19 20%
    1978  Mario Andretti  Lotus* Ford G 8 6 7 3 64 16 13 20%
    1960  Jack Brabham  Cooper* Climax D 3 5 5 3 43 10 9 21%
    1989  Alain Prost  McLaren* Honda G 2 4 11 5 76 16 16 21%
    1973  Jackie Stewart  Tyrrell Ford G 3 5 8 1 71 15 16 23%
    2004  Michael Schumacher  Ferrari* Ferrari B 8 13 15 10 148 18 34 23%
    1977  Niki Lauda  Ferrari* Ferrari G 2 3 10 3 72 17 17 24%
    1968  Graham Hill  Lotus* Ford F 2 3 6 0 48 12 12 25%
    1991  Ayrton Senna  McLaren* Honda G 8 7 12 2 96 16 24 25%
    1965  Jim Clark  Lotus* Climax D 6 6 6 6 54 10 14 26%
    1972  Emerson Fittipaldi  Lotus* Ford F 3 5 8 0 61 12 16 26%
    1993  Alain Prost  Williams* Renault G 13 7 12 6 99 16 26 26%
    1985  Alain Prost  McLaren* TAG G 2 5 11 5 73 16 20 27%
    1962  Graham Hill  BRM* BRM D 1 4 6 3 42 9 12 29%
    1975  Niki Lauda  Ferrari* Ferrari G 9 5 8 2 64.5 14 19.5 30%
    2011  Sebastian Vettel  Red Bull* Renault P 15 11 17 3 392 19 122 31%
    1995  Michael Schumacher  Benetton* Renault G 4 9 11 8 102 17 33 32%
    1952  Alberto Ascari  Ferrari Ferrari F P 5 6 6 6 36 8 12 33%
    1966  Jack Brabham  Brabham* Repco G 3 4 5 1 42 9 14 33%
    1957  Juan Manuel Fangio  Maserati Maserati P 4 4 6 2 40 8 15 38%
    1963  Jim Clark  Lotus* Climax D 7 7 9 6 54 10 21 39%
    1954  Juan Manuel Fangio  Mercedes Mercedes C 5 6 7 3 42 9 16.86 40%
    1955  Juan Manuel Fangio  Mercedes Mercedes C 3 4 5 3 40 7 16.5 41%
    1969  Jackie Stewart  Matra* Ford D 2 6 7 5 63 11 26 41%
    2002  Michael Schumacher  Ferrari* Ferrari B 7 11 17 7 144 17 67 47%
    1971  Jackie Stewart  Tyrrell* Ford G 6 6 7 3 62 11 29 47%
    2001  Michael Schumacher  Ferrari* Ferrari B 11 9 14 3 123 17 58 47%
    1992  Nigel Mansell  Williams* Renault G 14 9 12 8 108 16 52 48%

    #243061
    Avatar of Max Jacobson
    Max Jacobson
    Participant

    Interesting that Sebastian Vettel twice appears in the top 7, despite the notion that he has been super dominant!

    My one question would be have you just taken all results on the basis of the points system at the time, or have you converted them all to on system? Winning points of course were a higher percentage above second place previously, and there were various dropped points schemes, which may make them appear more or less dominant respectively to those since the new points system was introduced.

    Very insightful however!

    #243062
    Avatar of Michael
    Michael
    Participant

    That’s a nice easy way of seeing how competitive the season was.

    I think it’s a good way of grouping the competitive seasons together.

    In 2010 for instance there were 4 drivers fighting for the championship until late in the game. I don’t know if that makes it better or worse than 2008 when there were 2 drivers or 2007 when there were 3 drivers fighting.

    So the number of drivers could be used to finesse it slightly.

    @Max_Jacobson, the same tune over and over again:-)

    #243063
    Avatar of
    Anonymous

    These are just straight points system in place at that time, since that would be exactly the conditions faced by those champions at that time. so, no revisionist history.

    One way to see if these are any good would be, the most dominant season ever was 1992 with winner scoring 48% more points than second placed driver vs. 2007 where there was less than 1% separating the winner v.s. runner-up.

    * indicate that winner’s car also won constructor’s championship that year as well.

    Here’s the formatted view of same info

    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3699/10356047433_222178b222_b.jpg

    #243064
    Avatar of Michael
    Michael
    Participant

    Thanks for including the WCC info as well.

    It also shows how the WCC and the WDC go hand in hand. Is it 45 out of 55 times that the WDC winner also won the WCC since 1958? That’s 80 percent (excluding 2007).

    Even a 10% difference means the championship went all the way to the last or 2nd last race in the championship.

    #243065
    Avatar of Rick
    Rick
    Participant

    strange that 2004 is so low as schumacher dominated so much

    #243066
    Avatar of
    Anonymous

    @Michael – yes, that’s correct and also an observation, if your lead driver manages just a 3% gap with the runner up, you most likely end up winning the WCC as well.

    Of those 10 instances where we WCC/WDC are split, the margin is 3% or less for 8 of those seasons. Exceptions are 73 & 82.

    Shows in reality both those championships are one and the same from a team goal perspective, just a 3% gap.

    Season Driver Team Domination
    2008  Lewis Hamilton  McLaren 1%
    1999  Mika Häkkinen  McLaren 3%
    1994  Michael Schumacher  Benetton 1%
    1986  Alain Prost  McLaren 3%
    1983  Nelson Piquet  Brabham 3%
    1982  Keke Rosberg  Williams 11%
    1981  Nelson Piquet  Brabham 2%
    1976  James Hunt  McLaren 1%
    1973  Jackie Stewart  Tyrrell 23%
    1958  Mike Hawthorn  Ferrari 2%

    #243067
    Avatar of
    Anonymous

    @Rick – I’d generally agree, but it shows the recency effect + a strong second scoring from the same team + general perception of total domination from MS.

    Here’s the same view from a constructor’s perspective where you can see both ’02 & ’04 score as very strong seasons from a team perspective.

    A good example from this view, both 2010 & 2011 RBR were equally strong, but from a driver’s perspective 2010 was very close due to second driver vs. 2011.

    Season Constructor Dominance %
    1988  McLaren 67%
    1996  Williams 60%
    1984  McLaren 60%
    2002  Ferrari 58%
    2004  Ferrari 55%
    1971  Tyrrell 51%
    1993  Williams 50%
    1989  McLaren 45%
    1980  Williams 45%
    1987  Williams 45%
    2001  Ferrari 43%
    1992  Williams 40%
    1981  Williams 36%
    1977  Ferrari 35%
    1979  Ferrari 34%
    1963  Lotus 33%
    1978  Lotus 33%
    1986  Williams 32%
    1967  Brabham 30%
    1960  Cooper 29%
    1966  Brabham 26%
    1969  Matra 26%
    1975  Ferrari 26%
    2011  Red Bull 24%
    1961  Ferrari 22%
    2010  Red Bull 22%
    1968  Lotus 21%
    1959  Cooper 20%
    1995  Benetton 18%
    1997  Williams 17%
    1958  Vanwall 17%
    1965  Lotus 17%
    1972  Lotus 16%
    1998  McLaren 15%
    1962  BRM 14%
    2012  Red Bull 13%
    1994  Williams 13%
    2008  Ferrari 12%
    1970  Lotus 12%
    1983  Ferrari 11%
    1974  McLaren 11%
    1973  Lotus 11%
    1976  Ferrari 11%
    2009  Brawn 11%
    2000  Ferrari 11%
    1991  McLaren 10%
    1990  McLaren 9%
    1985  McLaren 9%
    2003  Ferrari 9%
    1982  Ferrari 7%
    1964  Ferrari 7%
    2005  Renault 5%
    1999  Ferrari 3%
    2006  Renault 2%
    2007  Ferrari 0%

    #243068
    Avatar of Michael
    Michael
    Participant

    yes, that’s correct and also an observation, if your lead driver manages just a 3% gap with the runner up, you most likely end up winning the WCC as well.

    Yes, winning the WDC by a margin 3% or anywhere from 6-9 points using today’s scoring system almost guarantees the team the WCC.

    I wish there was a way to do this analysis factoring for the driver being favored in the team – I know it’s very subjective but even a 52%-48% bias is a 10% advantage for one driver.

    I remember a BPL footballer being told by his coach the other day that playing with 5% less effort means the player (he) is 50% less effective. I think that applies to any competitive sport – 1%-2% off and you’re out pretty much out of the competition.

    #243069
    Avatar of pH
    pH
    Participant

    I’d like to start by saying that your idea for measuring dominance is very interesting and I appreciate the work you put into it. It did make me think. However, I also think that the question of points systems is _very_ legitimate.

    no revisionist history

    I understand what you mean, replacing Senna with Prost would be a bit revisionist, but in my opinion, keeping the “official” results has even worse problems.

    Here’s an example: Imagine two drivers, A getting all first places and B getting all second places. Obviously these two are going to be #1 and #2 in the standings. If this happens in 2002, the winner appears in your chart with domination percentage 40%. A year later the very same situation yields 20%.

    Now granted, this was an artificial example, so a good question is what difference we can expect in real results. I do not have machine-workable data for drivers, but I can relatively easily check on teams. I tried two cases, what follows is year, gap using official points, and gap using the 9-6-4-3-2-1 system:
    2003 9% 14%
    2004 55% 66%
    So it seems that the difference caused by changing scoring system can easily be about 5%, even exceed 10%. This begs a question whether the comparison using mixed scoring systems is even meaningful, given that a 5% change influences standings in your chart by quite a bit. I think converting to one points system would make the results much more relevant, despite other problems that this would bring.

    Incidentally, note that the top 5 most dominant seasons in your chart happen to be seasons where the winner was getting almost the biggest share. On the other hand, 2011 rewarded the winner much less. I took the time to recalculate that season (by hand, I might have made a mistake) and came up with the figure 41% instead of 31%, tying Vettel with Fangio.

    #243070
    Avatar of Malik
    Malik
    Participant

    May I suggest that the winning margin in seconds for each race be included in the system. For example:
    Season 1950: (2.6+110+0.4+14+25.7+78.6)/6= 38.55 seconds
    Season 1988: (9.8+2.3+20.5+7.1+5.9+38.7+31.7+23.3+13.6+0.5+30.4+0.5+9.6+26.2+13.4+36.4)/16= 16.87 seconds
    Season 2011:(22.3+3.3+5.2+8.8+0.6+1.1+2.7+10.9+16.5+4.0+3.6+3.7+9.6+1.7+1.2+12+8.4+8.5+17)/19= 7.4 seconds
    Season 2013 till Japanese GP: (12.5+4.3+10.2+9.1+9.3+3.9+14.4+0.8+1.0+10.9+16.9+5.5+32.6+4.2+7.1)/15= 9.5 seconds

    #243071
    Avatar of
    Anonymous

    @pH – Thanks for your thoughts and I do agree with you in principle.

    I will look into how best to do this. Some background that starts to illustrate how confounding it begins to be: http://f1numbers.wordpress.com/2010/02/18/how-fair-have-the-f1-points-systems-been/

    I could do a straight 2010 points system and superimpose it on 1950 onwards, but it will just be a theoretical exercise, since those conditions never existed except on this paper. Adding to the effect, that only x races counted during those times, how to incorporate those is also a question.

    IMHO, the most purest way (albeit with its own deficiencies) is to just accept that in 1950, Farina scored 30 and Fangio 27, in those conditions that existed, knowing that going into the 1950 season, the points system is such & such, and that they all raced that year in the same condition and that knowledge a win got them 8 points and a second place 6 points (thus, 2/8 = 25% more) allowing the drivers to take just the right amount of risk that the points yielded to win a championship. Contrast with 1991, where there’s a 40% premium for a win (thus more risk a driver can take). Or the current 2012, where the win premium is 28%. F1 has always been about managing risk vs. reward and thus inherently, the driver who own in 1950 had to optimize just as same as the driver in 2013 with those elasticities.

    That said, your post convinced me to just recalculate for fun and see how the number line up.

    #243072
    Avatar of pH
    pH
    Participant

    Thank you for the link, I did some analysis on how much various systems award the winner and top 2, but the guy there took it a few steps further, it was an interesting read.

    I agree that point system influences how much risk a driver takes, so even recalculating the results does not make the data “clean”. They are dirty for a different reason, and I feel that recalculated they tell more of the story.

    I actually spent some time thinking about it a few years ago when I wanted some convenient way to judge how teams did through the years. This comparison is even more troublesome owing to the fact that – apart from all the factors pertaining to drivers – some teams ran only a few races, some only one driver, some up to six drivers (the 50′s are a nightmare). In the end I decided to use only the best two results from each race for a team (I am aware that this does not solve the participation problem completely, I think it’s not possible to solve it), recalculate all seasons to the 9-6-4-3-2-1 system and then express the achievement as percentage of points earned compared to the total available. This also tells the story of dominance, but from a different angle, I think your and mine PoV’s complement each other very well, it would be great having both using the same scoring system. If you are curious, try
    http://math.feld.cvut.cz/habala/misc.htm

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