If there’s no safety car, I predict Hamilton will tear away and either or both of the Red Bulls to be under serious pressure from Alonso and Button, perhaps even losing their places. Then Hamilton will be pitted when the softs go off, do a good stint that leaves him half a minute ahead of the rest, but has to stop again from the effort, but still wins because of the gap he pulled out.
If there’s a safety car, I see Hamilton eking out the soft tyre phase and then trying to win on a one-stopper.
If it rains, I’d say a Hamilton win is pretty likely.
That is, if none of the big runners suffer misfortune!