Soonest Vettel can be Champion?
31st August 2011, 11:53 at 11:53 am #130011
I’m trying to work out when is the soonest that Seb can become the World Champion.
My first comparison was Vettel vs Webber. If the next races were a Red Bull 1:2 then, if my calculations are correct, Vettel could win the championship in Japan with 334 to 222 points. Thats a gap of 122 points with only 100 remaining.
I then looked at all his main competitors (Webber, Button, Alonso, Hamilton). If they all had very low or no point finishes in the next races, Vettel could win the Championship in Singapore. At this point he could have a points gap of 141 with only 125 remaining.
Are my calculations correct? Could he win it sooner? When is the earliest do you think he’ll win?
Ste31st August 2011, 12:11 at 12:11 pm #177307
Here’s something I calculated a while back and posted in the championship points article from Sunday as well as in another forum.
Back after the amazing Spa Grand Prix with another points summary.
There’s 175 to play for; and again, still open. Here are the gaps:
It’s not possible for Vettel to wrap it up by Monza. Singapore, however… is possible.
In Singapore, there will be 125 points to play for. So. By the Singaporean checkered flag, he has to, over the next TWO races now, outscore:
Webber by 34 points (17 points average)
Alonso by 24 points (12 points average)
Button by 16 points (8 points average)
Hamilton by 13 points (6.5 points average) – a win is 7 points; so winning the next two would knock Hamilton out of the race, even if Hamilton scores 2nd in both races.
For him to do so by the Suzuka checkered, he has to outscore (over the next 3 races):
Webber by 9 points (3 points average).
Webber is the only one “above the curve” in this regard. The others, however, have to catch up a set amount of points. Vettel can let the following happen, and still win:
Alonso has to outscore him by 1 point (.33 average)
Button has to outscore him by 9 points (3 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 12 points (4 average)
By Korea, with only 75 points left on the table, EVERYONE is below the curve. Note that for all the stats below, if the guys outscore him by that number of points, Vettel will be champ by 1 point
Webber has to outscore him by 16 points (4 average)
Alonso has to outscore him by 26 points (6.5 average)
Button has to outscore him by 34 points (8.5 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 37 points (9.25 average)
Webber has to outscore him by 41 points (8.2 average)
Alonso has to outscore him by 51 points (10.2 average)
Button has to outscore him by 59 points (11.8 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 62 points (12.4 average)
By Abu Dhabi:
Webber has to outscore him by 66 points (11 average)
Alonso has to outscore him by 76 points (12.67 average)
Button has to outscore him by 84 points (14 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 87 points (14.5 average)
Webber has to outscore him by 91 points (13 average)
Alonso has to outscore him by 101 points (14.43 average)
Button has to outscore him by 109 points (15.57 average)
Hamilton has to outscore him by 112 points (16 average)
So. Singapore looks unlikely, but if he can gain 9 points (over the next 3 races) over Webber, and not lose any gap towards his other contenders, he WILL be champion, by Suzuka. With FOUR RACES remaining.
If you linearly extrapolate all of their points now, the two McLarens will be knocked out by Singapore; and Vettel will win the WDC in Suzuka.
Scary isn’t it?
Will be back for another scary update in 2 weeks time, after Monza. Ciao!31st August 2011, 12:14 at 12:14 pm #177308
You’re right, theoretically he can secure the title in Singapore, in Monza it’s impossible.
Realistically, if he keeps beating Mark and gets three good results, he could win it after Suzuka with four to go, for which he needs 100 points’ advantage. That’s quite likely, if not, he’ll surely win it in Korea with three to go.
He has an extremely big lead, a great all-round car, reliable car, and he’s driving incredibly well. Even if they all had 0 points right now he’d probably still go on to win the title. As Keith pointed out in an article, we should rather focus on other fights, like the four-way fight for 2nd.31st August 2011, 12:26 at 12:26 pm #177309
Thanks for that raymondu999. If Alonso won the remaining 7 races and Vettel finished 5th in each of them, Alonso would win the title by 3 points. The gap is scary indeed.
The gap is so big that even if Vettel retired in the next two races, finish third in the remaining five, and Alonso won all the 7, Vettel would still be the champion.31st August 2011, 12:36 at 12:36 pm #177310
Lol I’d recommend you don’t start doing “if A finishes X and B finishes Y” yet; you’ll drive yourself crazy at this point :P
With 7 races to go; 24 possible positions for Vettel to finish in in all 7 races, and 23 other positions for any single championship contender to finish in, there are above 15,600,000,000,000,000,000 possible combinations (assuming you’re only doing 1-to-1 comparisons, like Vettel’s finishing vs Alonso finishing). It gets even bigger if you factor in the other drivers. And yes, that is a 20 digit number. (Fifteen point six billion billion, or more scientifically 15.6 quintillion :P)
/end sarcastic, random rant :P
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