@th13teen – You may be right in that the STR drivers need more than one year at the team before taking the drive. However, you’re forgetting one person – Buemi. Helmut Marko said he did not have the potential to be a championship contender, so they could easily “promote” him to #2 driver to sate Vettel’s hunger for wins. Perfect replacement for Mark, who seems to have had enough of the team.
As for Hamilton, while I too find it very unlikely that he will join Red Bull next season (it’s Vettel’s team, and Lewis will NOT play second fiddle for someone he beat prior to entering F1), he has constantly praised them and visited their factory afaik. It’s his best non-Macca option. And no, if Jense matches him again then I don’t see Hamilton staying at McLaren past 2012.