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F1 discussion

Is Vettel’s fourth title almost guaranteed?

This topic contains 97 replies, has 32 voices, and was last updated by Avatar of Michael Michael 4 months, 4 weeks ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 98 total)
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  • #133272
    Avatar of Michael
    Michael
    Participant

    I was looking at Vettel’s performance in 2013 and realized that this is his 2nd best year after 2011. Actually, it’s his 2nd best year by far at Red Bull in terms of results.

    Comparing his 5 seasons, by the 7th race:
    In 2009 he had 1 win and 3 podiums – 2nd in the WDC
    In 2010 he had 1 win and 3 podiums – Champion
    In 2011 he had 5 wins and 7 podiums – Champion
    In 2012 he had 1 victory and 2 podiums – Champion
    In 2013 he has 3 victories and 5 podiums

    At this point, what would you say his chances are of winning the 4th straight consecutive WDC?

    In my opinion, we can expect him to win at least 2 of the GPs in Singapore, Japan, Korea and India and to podium at Spa and Brazil. As Seb would say “so, yeah, things are looking good for us, yeah!”

    If you want to verify it, here’s the wikipedia link:

    #237650
    Avatar of Kingshark
    Kingshark
    Participant

    2013 has been nowhere near as competitive as 2012, so the cross-comparison is virtually useless. Nevertheless, although Vettel is now the bookies favorite, absolutely nothing is decided yet. Alonso is only 36 points behind, one DNF for Seb, and Fernando has him right where he wants him.

    In my opinion, why Vettel is certainly a great driver, in 2012 he was mostly reliant on superior machinery to beat Alonso. Fernando had a 40 point lead when the European races ended. Vettel won four consecutive races in Asia, but the Ferrari never looked capable of beating the Red Bull at any point after Monza.

    However, even in this era, designing a faster car than Red Bull on raw pace is entirely possible, McLaren did it last year, and Brawn did it in 2009. The challenging part is to put all the pieces in the puzzle together. Brawn did it perfectly, McLaren failed miserably.

    Ferrari have been on the back foot against Red Bull their Windtunnel has been messed up for so long. It has been less than a year since they finally came to grips and have some sort correlation between the parts they design and their performance on the track.

    Red Bull on the other hand, has a Windtunnel with five years of correlated data. That is a huge advantage in this era of no testing. Had testing not been banned, and Ferrari could test as much around Fiorano as they wish, they would have none of the problems with the car.

    If testing was allowed, I have a feeling Ferrari’s shortcoming would be close to none, and they would probably surpass Red Bull in the development race. As their work will not depend on how good their windtunnel is since the parts would be validated on the test track on a day-to-day basis.

    #237651
    Avatar of magon4
    magon4
    Participant

    I do remember Alonso saying something about if his car were close to Red Bull’s pace, he would win the WDC easily.
    Well, that’s not going to happen. Even though the Ferrari and the Red Bull are more closely matched this year than @kingshark will make us believe.

    #237652
    Avatar of Kingshark
    Kingshark
    Participant

    @magon4
    Ferrari have had the equal fastest car this year, and Malaysia and Bahrain are the reason to why Alonso is not leading the WDC.

    There, I said it. :-)

    #237653
    Avatar of magon4
    magon4
    Participant

    :)

    Another reason is that Red Bull haven’t had the outright fastest car, but the best strategy to maximize points every weekend. Vettel’s performance has been pretty close to ideal in terms of what was possible. It’s a little bit like the first semester Alonso last year.

    #237654
    Avatar of
    Anonymous

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    #237655
    Avatar of wsrgo
    wsrgo
    Participant

    It doesnt really matter how close Ferrari are to RB this year…RB’s slender overall advantage will be used to the maximum. And that is what happened at Canada, Vettel outqualified Alonso and ran away into the distance while FA struggled with his SS’s in the first stint. By the time he had switched on to primes and attacked those immediately ahead of him, Vettel’s win was almost guaranteed…
    If Vettel continues to outqualify Alonso, it will be almost impossible for the latter to challenge SV in the long run, especially given the huge points advantage which SV enjoys currently…

    #237656
    Avatar of magon4
    magon4
    Participant

    … and this in a year where qualifying hasn’t been as important as in the past…

    #237657
    Avatar of Michael
    Michael
    Participant

    He’s in the 2nd best position he’s been since 2009 at this point of the season so I would venture that he has a 80%-90% of winning the WDC. A meteor could strike Vettel’s car mid-race and it would probably improve the car’s aerodynamic performance.

    All the upgrades RB has brought to the table have made the car significantly faster. In fact you don’t see any constructor making improvements of the same caliber mid-season.

    By the end of the season, the RB6 in 2010, RB7 in 2011, and the RB8 in 2012 have completely dominated the opposition. I just can’t see 2013 being any different given the fact that he’s having a 2nd mini golden season.

    #237658
    Avatar of mnmracer
    mnmracer
    Participant

    By the end of the season… RB8 in 2012 have completely dominated the opposition.

    This false assumption is exactly the reason for these sort of “ow mah gawd” topics.

    Red Bull was fastest in the Japanese, Korean and Indian Grand Prix, but were on the back foot to (at least) McLaren in all the other races ‘by the end of the season’. Even when you only count from the Japanese Grand Prix, the following three races were McLaren, sort of tied, McLaren.

    Your statement is incorrect by any stretch of imagination.

    #237659
    Avatar of Kingshark
    Kingshark
    Participant

    @freelittlebirds

    I just can’t see 2013 being any different given the fact that he’s having a 2nd mini golden season.

    Unlike 2012, Ferrari are actually using a proper windtunnel this year, so I wouldn’t be too certain about that. ;-)

    I remember how back in 2007 Ferrari also had some windtunnel problems mid season, delaying the development of the car. That is why McLaren dominated them in Monaco, Canada, and USA. When Ferrari got that fixed, they immediately began winning again in France.

    I still feel that Maranello has better engineers than Milton Keynes, but outdated facilities and testing ban is the reason to why they are not performing as well. If Ferrari could test as much as they wanted in Fiorano, the F138 would be on a different planet right now.

    #237660
    Avatar of Michael
    Michael
    Participant

    @mnmracer

    I disagree. McLaren’s car last year was quick but extremely unreliable. Hamilton simply maxed the car’s performance.

    In the USA, the Red Bull should have won and I think Hamilton simply was the better driver with a slower car. In Abu Dhabi, the car could and should have won but Vettel just qualified horribly being beaten by Webber.

    Nonetheless, no car has shown the supremacy that Vettel has shown in the last 6 GPs of the season.

    Out of his 28 wins since 2010, Vettel has won 13 of them in the last 6GPs of the season. That’s close to 50% in less than 33% of the season.

    Still think I’m wrong?

    #237661
    Avatar of Michael
    Michael
    Participant

    @Kingshark

    I don’t know why Red Bull and Vettel are so dominant at the end of the season.
    - It could be that the slow speed and massive downforce of the car is suited to those tracks and the small advantages accrue over each corner translating into an eventual win.
    - Or it could be that Red Bull bring the best technical upgrades when it counts.
    - Or it could be that Vettel brings his A game when he needs to.
    - Or it could be that Red Bull interpret testing differently and are able to test more but still within the regulations (e.g. taking a component and putting on an older chassis still yielding valuable information for the current chassis – perhaps the car is designed to be closer to the previous generation to allow intrageneration testing).
    - Or it could be all of the above.

    I don’t know but one thing is for sure – if you want to beat Red Bull and Vettel, you want to be well ahead of him heading into the latter part of the season. We saw what happened to Alonso last year and to Hamilton in 2010…

    #237662
    Avatar of Michael
    Michael
    Participant

    Given 3 more races in 2009 and without one of the retirements, Vettel could have won in 2009. It was a short season and he probably lost the WDC because of it.

    #237663
    Avatar of Kingshark
    Kingshark
    Participant

    @freelittlebirds

    - It could be that the slow speed and massive downforce of the car is suited to those tracks and the small advantages accrue over each corner translating into an eventual win.
    - Or it could be that Red Bull bring the best technical upgrades when it counts.
    - Or it could be that Vettel brings his A game when he needs to.
    - Or it could be that Red Bull interpret testing differently and are able to test more but still within the regulations (e.g. taking a component and putting on an older chassis still yielding valuable information for the current chassis – perhaps the car is designed to be closer to the previous generation to allow intrageneration testing).
    - Or it could be all of the above.

    Or it could be that Ferrari have been developing all the cars since 2009 with a default windtunnel. We saw in 3 races alone during 2007, how much speed they lost when they were receiving faulty data from the windtunnel. Red Bull have had a better operational windtunnel for the past 4 years now, that’s what’s given them the advantage; along with the fact that their simulator is more advanced, and testing is banned.

    This year they Ferrari are actually developing the car with a better windtunnel, the Toyota owned machine in Cologne, and so far they have had a better car than Red Bull. Malaysia and Bahrain is the reason to why Alonso is not leading the WDC.

    The only weakness of the F138 is that it is very sensitive to changing conditions. They’ve been well behind Red Bull in weather-affected sessions thus far. Ferrari are slow on a wet track and slow on a green track (as we saw in Canada). Once the circuit rubber’d in, Alonso became the fastest guy in the race, and the tyres didn’t play much of a factor either, as everyone, including Vettel, was visibly pushing, meaning that in the 2nd half of the race Fernando in his F138 simply had the speed advantage over Red Bull. Therefore, it is best for me to hope that the rest of the season stays dry.

    I still refuse to believe that Milton Keynes has better engineers than Maranello. :p

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