Red Bull will only kick Webber out if they’ve got someone good lined up.
If they do, the question is who that person is.
Neither Ricciardo not Vergne are up to the task. Ricciardo is the better qualifier; Vergne, the better racer. Fuse them together, and you’ve got someone who might be capable. But as it stands right now, they’re just not good enough. I suppose Red Bull could always draft Buemi in to replace Webber if he left mid-season, but I can’t see them taking Webber out of the seat for the sake of putting Buemi in. The same goes for Alguersuari, though I doubt he will ever drive for a Red Bull team again.
And thus we get to the crux of the matter. Webber won’t leave Red Bull without being compelled to leave. Right now, he’s the best driver available to them, so they won’t push him. Not unless they’ve found a driver from the left-of-field that would be totally unexpected and very promising; esteban Gutierrez and Felipe Nasr are the only drivers I can think of who are close to this.
Since Ferrari are struggling, nor will Webber take the plunge and defect to Maranello not unless the relationship with the team has broken down beyond repair, and I haven’t seen anything to indicate that this might be possible. His relationship with the team has endured much worse, what with the Turkey and Silverstone incidents back in 2010. Based on what we have seen in recent weeks, this is even less likely than the team picking up a rookie to fill the seat.
The bottom line here is that this is just the thinnest of speculation, if indeed it can be called speculation at all.